Journal of Medical Virology 87:1285–1291 (2015)

Value of a Risk Scoring Tool to Predict Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease Severity and Need for Hospitalization in Term Infants Rafat Mosalli,1* Asmaa Mostafa Abdul Moez,2 Mohammed Janish,3 and Bosco Paes4 1

Department of Pediatrics, Umm Al Qura University, Mecca, Saudi Arabia Department of Pediatrics, International Medical Center, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia 3 Research Center, International Medical Center, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia 4 Department of Pediatrics (Neonatal Division), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada 2

Several environmental and demographic risk factors have been validated and are used to determine the risk of acquiring severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and subsequent hospitalization in late preterm infants born at 33–35 weeks gestational age. The applicability of the same composite model of risk factors in the term population has not been fully explored. The primary objective of this pilot study was to establish whether a risk scoring tool (RST), could predict the severity of RSV infection in term, RSV-positive infants who were hospitalized. A retrospective observational study was conducted in a pediatric unit, over 2 RSV seasons (2011–2013). A convenient sample of 72 children was selected out of a total of 111 RSVpositive cases after exclusions. The RST was applied and a score of respiratory disease severity was determined for each patient. Demographic characteristics were analyzed by standard descriptive methods, x2 analysis was utilized for categorical data and ANOVA for comparison between the clinical severity groups and the RST score. A P-value 1 smoker in the home Total Score/100

25 17 13 12 12 11 10

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Score rating: Low risk (0–48), Moderate risk (49–64), High risk (65–100). Infants with a RST score of 49–100 qualify for RSV prophylaxis. * Adapted from Sampalis et al. [2008].

J. Med. Virol. DOI 10.1002/jmv

Predicting RSV Hospitalization in Term Infants

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TABLE II. Kristjansson Respiratory Score Rating for Acute Bronchiolitis Score

Respiratory rate (breaths/minute)

0 1

60

Chest recession

Breath sounds

Skin color

General conditiona

None Moderate (costodiaphragmatic) Severe (as in 1 þ rib þ jugular retraction

Vesicular Wheeze  rhonchi/rales Severe wheeze  rhonchi/rales

Normal Pallor

Mild Moderate

Cyanosis

Severe

Adapted from Kristj ansson et al. [1993]. a Mild (activity þ feeding is normal); Moderate (activity and feeding is less than normal); Severe (child is ill and feeds poorly)

detects both viable and non-viable RSV. Test performance depends on the antigen load in the collected specimen and involves a rapid immunochromatographic analysis of the nasopharyngeal lavage. The overall sensitivity of the test is 70–93% while the specificity ranges from 89%–100% [Blyth et al., 2011]. All RSV positive cases were reported weekly to the study co-ordinator by the virology laboratory. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Data were entered into a standard statistical program (SPSS, IBM, Version 19) and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Means, standard deviations (SDs), and percentage were used to analyze demographics and RST scores for all hospitalized patients based on severity. Chi-square and ANOVA were employed to compare the RSV clinical severity rating and the RST score. A P-value 0.05) and the largest percentage of infants (60%) hospitalized for RSV lower respiratory tract infection received a low-risk score on the RST and would not have qualified for prophylaxis (Table I). Of interest, the mean age of presentation with lower respiratory tract infection-related hospitalization was 7.4 months and the older age (6months) is in agreement with some population based studies reported in the literature [Nair et al., 2010; Houben et al., 2011; Sim~oes et al., 2011]. Several reasons may account for the results of this study. First, the sample size of the pilot project was

relatively small. However, similar findings were also documented by Paes et al. [2009] who found that the RST did not discriminate between low versus moderate to high-risk RSV-positive term infants who required hospitalization. In the current study, there was additionally a mismatch between the validated, clinical Kristjansson severity rating, and the robust RST model where infants with the mildest respiratory symptomatology had the highest mean scores (47). Second, it is likely that other risk factors as identified by Houben et al. [2011] may be more significant in the term population. Figueras-Aloy et al. [2004] noted that the risk factors for RSV hospitalization in a retrospective study (FLIP-1) involving 33–35 weeks’ gestational age infants did not concur with those found in a prospective study [Figueras-Aloy et al., 2008; FLIP-2] that enrolled infants who were 32–35 weeks. This was in part due to study design but the inclusion of one extra week (infants who were 32 weeks gestational age) in the latter study may have influenced the results. This supports the premise that risk factor models that have good predictive value for RSV-related hospitalization in a defined subset of preterm infants should not be loosely applied to others of varying gestational ages with the expectation of similar outcomes. Last, socio-economic status, country-specific epidemiological, and environmental risk factors not included in the Canadian risk scoring tool may have reduced the predictive power to detect RSV-related hospitalization [Sampalis et al., 2008]. In conclusion, the RST prove to have limited value in the prediction of RSV-related hospitalization in term infants, nor did it correlate with the clinical severity of illness. The absence of positive trends in the results indicates that a larger study based on a similar hypothesis, irrespective of the risk scoring model utilized, is likely to yield similar findings. Targeting approximately 8% of a universally large term birth cohort, which was reported by Houben et al. [2011] to be at highest risk for RSV lower respiratory tract infection for prophylaxis is also not J. Med. Virol. DOI 10.1002/jmv

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J. Med. Virol. DOI 10.1002/jmv

Value of a risk scoring tool to predict respiratory syncytial virus disease severity and need for hospitalization in term infants.

Several environmental and demographic risk factors have been validated and are used to determine the risk of acquiring severe respiratory syncytial vi...
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