RESEARCH ARTICLE
Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity for Control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Low-Income Country Setting Timothy M. Kinyanjui1*, Thomas A. House1,2, Moses C. Kiti3, Patricia A. Cane4, David J. Nokes3,5, Graham F. Medley6 1 School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom, 2 Department of Mathematics and WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom, 3 Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) – Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya, 4 Public Health England, Salisbury, United Kingdom, 5 School of Life Sciences and WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom, 6 Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom * [email protected]
Abstract OPEN ACCESS Citation: Kinyanjui TM, House TA, Kiti MC, Cane PA, Nokes DJ, Medley GF (2015) Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity for Control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Low-Income Country Setting. PLoS ONE 10(9): e0138018. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0138018 Editor: Cecile Viboud, National Institutes of Health, UNITED STATES Received: May 1, 2015 Accepted: August 24, 2015 Published: September 21, 2015 Copyright: © 2015 Kinyanjui et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Household occupancy data for the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) are available from KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Institutional Data Access and Ethics committee from http://www.kemri-wellcome. org/index.php/en/study_page/16. Epidemiological parameters and relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. Contact data can be found here: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article? id=10.1371/journal.pone.0104786.
Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is globally ubiquitous, and infection during the first six months of life is a major risk for severe disease and hospital admission; consequently RSV is the most important viral cause of respiratory morbidity and mortality in young children. Development of vaccines for young infants is complicated by the presence of maternal antibodies and immunological immaturity, but vaccines targeted at older children avoid these problems. Vaccine development for young infants has been unsuccessful, but this is not the case for older children (> 6m). Would vaccinating older children have a significant public health impact? We developed a mathematical model to explore the benefits of a vaccine against RSV.
Methods and Findings We have used a deterministic age structured model capturing the key epidemiological characteristics of RSV and performed a statistical maximum-likelihood fit to age-specific hospitalization data from a developing country setting. To explore the effects of vaccination under different mixing assumptions, we included two versions of contact matrices: one from a social contact diary study, and the second a synthesised construction based on demographic data. Vaccination is assumed to elicit an immune response equivalent to primary infection. Our results show that immunisation of young children (5–10m) is likely to be a highly effective method of protection of infants (
Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity for Control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Low-Income Country Setting Timothy M. Kinyanjui1*, Thomas A. House1,2, Moses C. Kiti3, Patricia A. Cane4, David J. Nokes3,5, Graham F. Medley6 1 School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom, 2 Department of Mathematics and WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom, 3 Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) – Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya, 4 Public Health England, Salisbury, United Kingdom, 5 School of Life Sciences and WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom, 6 Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom * [email protected]
Abstract OPEN ACCESS Citation: Kinyanjui TM, House TA, Kiti MC, Cane PA, Nokes DJ, Medley GF (2015) Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity for Control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Low-Income Country Setting. PLoS ONE 10(9): e0138018. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0138018 Editor: Cecile Viboud, National Institutes of Health, UNITED STATES Received: May 1, 2015 Accepted: August 24, 2015 Published: September 21, 2015 Copyright: © 2015 Kinyanjui et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Household occupancy data for the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) are available from KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Institutional Data Access and Ethics committee from http://www.kemri-wellcome. org/index.php/en/study_page/16. Epidemiological parameters and relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. Contact data can be found here: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article? id=10.1371/journal.pone.0104786.
Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is globally ubiquitous, and infection during the first six months of life is a major risk for severe disease and hospital admission; consequently RSV is the most important viral cause of respiratory morbidity and mortality in young children. Development of vaccines for young infants is complicated by the presence of maternal antibodies and immunological immaturity, but vaccines targeted at older children avoid these problems. Vaccine development for young infants has been unsuccessful, but this is not the case for older children (> 6m). Would vaccinating older children have a significant public health impact? We developed a mathematical model to explore the benefits of a vaccine against RSV.
Methods and Findings We have used a deterministic age structured model capturing the key epidemiological characteristics of RSV and performed a statistical maximum-likelihood fit to age-specific hospitalization data from a developing country setting. To explore the effects of vaccination under different mixing assumptions, we included two versions of contact matrices: one from a social contact diary study, and the second a synthesised construction based on demographic data. Vaccination is assumed to elicit an immune response equivalent to primary infection. Our results show that immunisation of young children (5–10m) is likely to be a highly effective method of protection of infants (
