Journal of Safety Research 48 (2014) 77–85
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The impact of the economic crisis on occupational injuries Verónica Sedano de la Fuente a, Miguel A. Camino López b, Ignacio Fontaneda González c, Oscar J. González Alcántara c, Dale O. Ritzel d,⁎ a
Construction Engineering, University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain Economic Science, University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain Industrial Engineering, University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain d Safety Center, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901-6731, USA b c
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Received 31 January 2012 Received in revised form 3 September 2013 Accepted 21 December 2013 Available online 3 January 2014 Keywords: Economic crisis Injuries Accidents Unemployment Severity
a b s t r a c t Introduction: The potential influence of the current economic crisis on occupational accident rates and accident severity is studied in an analysis of all workplace accidents that occurred in Spain throughout the period 2000–2009. Method and results: The investigation confirms that occupational accidents in Spain are affected by the current economic crisis, which has provoked a sharp fall in both the number of accidents and the probability of having one. This may be justified by certain factors such as age, gender, length of service, size of the firm, and the employment stability of the injured worker. The influence of these factors is analyzed. Practical applications: The economic crises seems to provoke a sort of “natural selection” in the labor market and only the best adapted tend to remain (older workers, with more experience, a higher percentage of women, more workers in larger companies and permanent contracts), all of which means that the probability of workers having an injury is considerably reduced. © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction Economic crises can incur serious losses for the general public, leading to the loss of employment and resources and, in short, quality of life. Economic crises can also be harmful for people's health. In fact, the scientific literature points to a strong inverse relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health (Ruhm, 2000). The same conclusion has also been reached in European countries such as Germany (Neumayer, 2004) and Spain (Granados, 2008). Over the past decade, the most successful economy in Europe with the highest growth rate was the Spanish economy. Immigration, low interest rates, and liberalization of the Spanish economy all contributed to this spectacular economic development (known as a “real estate bubble”) driven by the construction sector. However, successful growth ended in 2007, since which time Spain has been experiencing a painful economic recession (Royo, 2009). The current financial crisis began in Spain in 2007, after a five-year period of high liquidity on the financial markets (Álvarez, 2008). Furthermore, the global financial crisis coincided in Spain with the end of an expansive cyclical phase and the pricking of the “real-estate bubble,” which acted as a significant factor in the subsequent phase of economic decline.
⁎ Corresponding author at: Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901-6731, USA. E-mail address: [email protected] (D.O. Ritzel).
In this economic and financial situation, a significant change occurred in both the unemployment rate and the injury rate. This may be ascertained from the graph in Fig. 1, which represents variations in the inter-annual rates of unemployment, numbers of injuries, and the incidence index1 over the period 2000 to 2009. It may be seen, in effect, that the year 2007 marked an inflection point for these rates. In addition, the pace at which the number of injuries and the incidence index changed was very similar and significant reductions were recorded from 2007 onwards; in other words, at the height of the economic crisis. This inflection point in 2007 may be seen in Figs. 2 and 3 in the frequency index. The main aim of this work was to study variations in injury rates during the current economic crisis and to analyze the possible causes that may have provoked them. Many authors confirmed that occupational injury rates are influenced by economic cycles. Thus, periods of economic slow-downs may accompany a reduction in the number of injuries. Therefore, it would be logical to suppose that during an economic crisis, with a rise in unemployment and subsequent fall in the number of employed workers, the number of injuries would also fall. We studied what happens to the indices, which make allowance for any variations in the number of workers. It was interesting to shed light on the reasons for which the incidence index fell in times of economic crisis (Fig. 1).
1 The incidence index is defined as the quotient relation of the number of injuries over the number of workers (number of injuries per 100,000 workers).
0022-4375/$ – see front matter © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2013.12.007
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70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10,00% -20,00% -30,00% Unemployment
Accidents
Incidence index
Fig. 1. Inter-annual variation in the rate of unemployment, number of injuries and the incidence index. Spain 2000–2009.
The first studies conducted on injury rates in times of economic expansion established that the demand for work led to an accelerated rhythm of work and in consequence an increase in the workload. They also made clear that the rapid incorporation of a fresh, inexperienced workforce increased injury rates at work (Kossoris, 1938; Kossoris, 1943). Other authors shared this view, when they have argued that an increased workload implies a longer working day with overtime, resulting in workers becoming even more tired and having more injuries. By spending more time at their place of work, it has been suggested that workers were likely to suffer more injuries (Shea, 1990). On the contrary, other authors were unable to find any clear evidence that overtime and work-load affect injuries in the workplace (Schuster & Rhodes, 1985). Studies have also looked at the influence of the economic crisis on injury severity. Davies, Jones, and Nunez (2009) studied the cyclical
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
TOTAL
Agrarian Sector
Construction Sector
fluctuations in rates of workplace injury in the United Kingdom from 1986 to 2005 and established that, throughout cycles of economic expansion, minor injuries were pro-cyclical, whereas major injuries were not affected by the level of economic activity. These studies determined that fluctuations were more intense in construction and production activities (Davies et al., 2009). Other authors have indicated that workers tended to underreport minor injuries during a recession (Román, 2006), which reduce the official number of minor injuries that they reported. Along these same lines, it was also recognized that fluctuations in workplace injuries were related to lower levels of injury notification by workers, in times of crisis, and not with greater safety levels (Boone, Van Ours, & Research, C.f.E.P., 2002). The same conclusion was reached in Spain, where the unemployment rate was shown to be inversely related to redundancy notifications (Garro & Aldaz, 2007). Leigh (1985) also established a relation between unemployment and occupational absenteeism indicating the higher unemployment occurred the lower absenteeism was that may predominantly associated with avoiding of absenteeism-related layoff (Leigh, 1985). Some authors found that the duration of redundancies in times of recession varied according to the experience of the work-force and their stability of employment; so, employment stability had an obvious effect on the duration of absenteeism (Askildsen, Bratberg, & Nilsen, 2005). Differences have been found in the effect of business cycle in different sectors (Asfaw, Pana-Cryan, & Rosa, 2011). Some factors influence injury rates and the severity of injuries, including age (Salminen, 2004), length of service (Chau et al., 2010), gender (Ore, 1998), firm size (Fabiano, Curro, & Pastorino, 2004), and type of contract (Lopez, Ritzel, Fontaneda, & Alcantara, 2008). This study seeks to establish whether the current economic crisis affected workplace injuries and their severity in Spain.
2. Methods 2.1. Data collection All injuries in Spain, the consequences of which resulted in one or more days off work were notified based on the National Institute of Safety and Hygiene at Work (INSHT; Instituto Nacional de Seguridad e Higiene en el Trabajo). Data of work injuries were obtained from the Ministry of Work and Immigration [Ministerio de Trabajo e Inmigración] that included the incidence index, seriousness index,2 and the number of injuries for the years 2000 to 2009, which amounted to 8,713,981. For a further analysis for the period between 2005 and 2009, Notifications of Workplace Injuries held on file by the INSHT, dependent on the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Immigration, were collected for an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing injury rates. The number of injuries (4.149.813) resulting in time off work from 2005 to 2009 was analyzed. The two-year period 2005–2006 was selected as these were years of economic expansion. The year 2007 was selected because the crisis began in that year and the two following years (2008 and 2009) because they were considered years of complete crisis. In Spain, medical staff are required to diagnose the seriousness of workplace injuries. Major injuries include: amputation of any body part, fractures in any long bone, head trauma, burns of second or third degree, severe injuries in hand, spine injuries, and injuries that compromise the visual and/or hearing capabilities. From among the injuries analyzed for the study of factors influencing injury rates, 4,170,201 (98.97% of the total) were classified as “minor,” 38,472 (0.93%) as major, and 4,150 (0.10%) had fatal consequences.
Industrial Sector Services Sector
Fig. 2. Frequency index data by sector (injuries per 1.000.000 h worked).
2 The injury seriousness index is defined as the quotient relation of the number of days lost due to injuries and the total number of hours worked.
V.S. de la Fuente et al. / Journal of Safety Research 48 (2014) 77–85
79
10,0%
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0,0%
1991
5,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
-20,0% Fig. 3. Inter-annual variation in frequency index (injuries per 1.000.000 h worked). Spain 1991–2009.
2.2. Study design Having obtained the information on the total number of injuries and their seriousness over the period 2000 to 2009, the factors that had the most significant relation with injury rates in times of crisis were identified. On the one hand, injuries were analyzed as an absolute value, and, on the other, the incidence index or probability of having an injury. The variation in the number of major injuries was studied in both the major injury index (number of major injuries per 100,000 workers) and the seriousness index. The latter index is calculated as days off work due to occupational injuries per 1,000 hours worked. For the years 2005 to 2009, the study centered on injuries and their relation with the age, length of service, and gender of the injured worker, as well as on the size of the firm and employment stability. 2.3. Statistical analysis The statistical studies were expressed as the number of injuries and the injury incidence index for each year (2000–2009) in each activity sector. Data from the Ministry of Employment and Immigration were used for this analysis. A study of days off work was also performed, with the seriousness index for the same period 2000–2009. Furthermore, the age, length of service, and gender of the injured worker, as well as the size of the firm and the type of contract over the years 2005–2009 were all analyzed. Contingency Tables were used to analyze the relation between the time in years and the variables, in which the value of the Chi squared statistic (Χ2) was calculated to test the hypothesis of independence of the crisis with respect to the different variables selected on injury rates. This statistical test revealed the possible influence of these variables over the years of economic expansion and crisis. The corrected standardized residuals (csr) were also obtained from the tables, placing an asterisk next to those with a value of below 1.96 in absolute terms, the statistical significance of which was not sufficient to reject the hypothesis of the independence of the variables. Those values greater than 1.96 in absolute terms may be said to have more than a random influence on the variable under examination in relation to variations in the injury rate. All analyses were performed on the statistical software analysis package SPSS V18. 3. Results As indicated in the Introduction, not only was 2007 the year in which the current economic crisis began, but it was also the year in which all the employment and injury rate trends changed.
Table 1 confirms that the year 2007 was an inflection point. In fact, the number of injuries tended to increase over the years of economic expansion, considered to be 2005–2006 and part of 2007. However, this tendency changed sharply starting in 2008, when a marked descent began in the number of injuries. It was also found that the trend of the incidence indices appeared to be progressively downward with an approximate annual decline of 3.8%. This trend change started from 2007, with a much more intense drop from 12% in 2008 to 18.5% in 2009. These observations demonstrated that the current crisis in Spain had indeed influenced occupational injury rates in terms of both the number of injuries and the probability of a worker having an injury. With regard to the seriousness of the injuries, we found that minor injuries underwent a pro-cyclic evolution, as they rise in times of economic expansion and fall in times of crisis. However, it may not be true for major injuries, as they fall down year after year both during economic expansion and crisis periods but more notable in the latter. With regard to the incidence indices for minor and for major injuries, we found that the decrease occurred regardless of the economic situation but intensified considerably in times of crisis. The results of the analysis of the seriousness index are shown in Table 2. The seriousness index was calculated as the number of days lost due to workplace injuries for each 1,000 hours at work. Table 2 shows us the evolution of this index over recent years and we see how it fell notably over the years of intense economic crisis from 2008 to 2009. This significant decline in the number of major injuries per 100,000 workers registered over the years 2008 and 2009 may explain the reduction in the number of lost working days to a certain extent.
Table 1 Number of injuries and incidence index in Spain, 2000–2009. Year
Number of injuries N = 8,713,981
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
932,932 946,600 938,188 874,724 871,724 890,872 911,561 924,981 804,959 617,440
920,156 933,484 925,201 862,588 860,304 880,682 902,062 915,574 797,257 611,626
11,640 12,086 11,886 11,116 10,452 9,255 8,552 8,581 6,892 5,182
1,136 1,030 1,101 1,020 968 935 947 826 810 632
7,558.4 7,549.9 7,057.2 6,386.7 6,136.4 6,011.8 5,880.1 5,760.3 5,069.1 4,130.7
7,454.8 7,445.2 6,959.5 6,298.0 6,056.0 5,943.0 5,818.8 5,701.7 5,020.6 4,091.8
94.3 96.4 89.4 81.1 73.5 62.4 55.1 53.4 43.4 34.6
9.2 8.0 8.3 7.4 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.1 5.8 4.2
80
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Table 2 Seriousness index, Spain, 2000–2009.
Table 4 Number of injuries and incidence indices. Industrial sector. Spain, 2000–2009.
Working days lost per 1,000 hours worked
Χ2 = 424.1938283 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001
Years
Year
Number of injuries N = 2,358,875 Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
272,786 265,818 252,548 237,967 244,740 242,336 244,344 245,074 210,765 142,497
269,624 262,549 249,416, 235,112 241,986 239,831 242,032 242,789 208,933 141,228
2,926 3,053 2,908 2,642 2,551 2,313 2,106 2,129 1,674 1,145
236 216 224 213 203 192 206 156 158 124
11,511.6 11,044.5 10,516.4 9,957.4 10,236.5 10,174.3 9,582.0 9,426.8 8,379.8 6,572.9
11,378.2 10,908.7 10,386.0 9,837.9 10,121.4 10,069.1 9,491.3 9,338.9 8,307.0 6,514.4
123.5 126.8 121.1 110.6 106.7 97.1 82.6 81.9 66.6 52.8
10.0 9.0 9.3 8.9 8.5 8.1 8.2 6.1 7.0 5.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Seriousness 0.96 index
0.97
0.95
0.88
0.80
0.82
0.79
0.82
0.67
0.66
3.1. Injuries by sectors One of the questions proposed was whether the crisis equally affects injury rates in the different productive sectors or whether, on the contrary, it affects some sectors more than others did. An analysis by sector that described the main results for each one is set out below. 3.1.1. Agrarian sector Table 3 indicates that injury rates in the agrarian sector were not pro-cyclic. In fact, there were fewer injuries in 2006 than there were in 2005 and, curiously, more major injuries in 2008 than in 2007. When we analyze the incidence indices, we found that the incidence index for minor injuries fell in times of crisis and, curiously, the incidence index for major injuries increased. Without a doubt, this observation needs further investigation in depth. 3.1.2. Industrial sector As shown in Table 4, the number of injuries that occurred in 2009 fell by 42% in relation to the number recorded in 2006. The probability of suffering an injury also fell significantly between 2006 and 2009. In fact, the injury rate for minor injuries was reduced by 31%, for major ones by 36%, and for fatal injuries by 30%. 3.1.3. Construction sector This sector suffered more than any other from the economic crisis in Spain (Table 7), and, in consequence, resulted in a higher unemployment rate with significant variations. In Table 5, it may be seen that the number of injuries in 2009 was reduced by more than 50% with respect to the number reported in 2006. The incidence index between 2006 and 2009 for minor injuries fell by 29%, for major injuries by 35%, and for fatal injuries by 16%. 3.1.4. Service sector The service sector suffered the least from the effects of the economic crisis. Thus, it is clear from Table 6 that the number of injuries suffered in 2009 fell by only 15% with respect to the number reported in 2006. We found that, between 2006 and 2009, the incidence indices experienced significant reductions, with respect to the probability of having an injury. In fact, the incidence index declined by 20% for minor injuries, by 28% for major injuries, and again by 28% for fatal ones.
Table 3 Number of injuries and incidence index. Agrarian sector. Spain, 2000–2009.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.1.5. Type of injury Analyzing the type of injury (Table 8), it was found that all injuries have experienced a significant reduction in the years analyzed. However, there was an increased percentage in sprain or strain injuries. Analyzing injuries in the different productive sectors we observed that in the agricultural sector (Χ2 = 220,543 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001) the importance of wounds decreased from 2005 to 2009 falling from 35.0% to 32.9%. On the contrary, there were an increase in the percentage of fractures and strains and sprains from 8.9% and 41.2% to 9.4% and 43.3% respectively. In the industry sector (X 2 = 1,388,667 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001) the main differences occurred in the strains and sprains which increased from 38.8% in 2005 to 41.6% in 2009. Wounds decreased from 41.7% to 40.3%. Fractures, just suffer variations, from 6.1% to 6.2%. Similar variations, but more intense, are recorded in the construction sector (X 2 = 2,367,165 d.f = 28 Sig = 0.001), where strains and sprains go from 39.3% to 44.2% and wounds, however, down from 41.0% to 37.2%. Fractures meanwhile remain in the 7.0%. Finally, in the service sector (X 2 = 2,223,780 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001), fractures hardly vary from 6.00% to 5.9%, wounds from 32.9% to 31.1% and strains and sprains recorded the biggest change going from 47.3% to 50.5%. We found that the economic crisis influenced both the number of injuries as well as the probability of having an injury. Equally, we confirmed that the crisis in the construction, industrial, and service sectors reduced, with greater proportion, the probability of having a major or fatal injury. The following sections discuss explanations for these significant reductions through the study of some of the factors influencing injury rates. 3.2. Factors influencing injury rates As stated earlier, the age, length of service, gender of the worker, size of the firm, and type of contract were factors related to the injury rates.
Table 5 Number of injuries and incidence indices. Construction sector. Spain 2000–2009.
Χ2 = 279.8777765 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001 Year
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Χ2 = 341.6471849 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001
Number of injuries N = 352,977
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
43,370 39,096 37,408 34,710 35,024 34,265 33,938 34,475 33,010 27,681
42,112 37,893 36,284 33,791 34,149 33,489 33,246 33,820 32,339 27,103
1,139 1,093 1,033 857 800 710 626 577 596 522
119 110 91 62 75 66 66 78 75 56
3,492.6 3,172.0 3,039.8 2,792.3 2,919.5 2,944.5 2,558.1 2,653.1 2,653.6 2,563.4
3,391.3 3,074.4 2,948.5 2,718.3 2,846.6 2,877.8 2,506.0 2,602.7 2,599.6 2,509.9
91.7 88.7 83.9 68.9 66.7 61.0 47.2 44.4 47.9 48.3
9.6 8.9 7.4 5.0 6.3 5.7 5.7 7.0 6.1 5.2
Year
Number of injuries N = 2,243,154
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
239,244 250,277 250,414 230,735 224,083 238,495 250,313 250,324 186,655 122,614
235,853 246,618 246,592 226,955 220,478 235,212 247,059 247,094 184,326 121,120
3,099 3,390 3,518 3,482 3,343 2,973 2,958 2,952 2,076 1,329
292 269 304 298 262 310 296 278 253 165
18,769.8 18,307.1 17,315.9 15,298.6 13,895.5 13,498.0 12,734.6 12,393.1 10,684.0 8,980.4
18,503.8 18,039.4 17,051.6 15,048.0 13,671.9 13,312.2 12,569.1 12,233.2 10,550.7 8,871.0
243.1 248.0 243.3 230.9 207.3 168.3 150.5 146.1 118.8 97.3
22.9 19.7 21.0 19.8 16.2 17.5 14.4 13.5 13.6 12.1
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Table 6 Number of injuries and incidence index. Service sector. Spain, 2000–2009. Χ2 = 1,695.764087 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001 Number of injuries N = 3,758,975
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Number of injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
377,532 391,409 397,818 371,312 367,877 375,776 382,966 395,108 374,529 324,648
372,567 386,424 392,909 366,730 363,691 372,150 379,725 391,871 371,659 322,175
4,476 4,550 4,427 4,135 3,758 3,259 2,862 2,923 2,546 2,186
489 435 482 447 428 367 379 314 324 287
5,062.9 4,971.7 4,842.1 4,340.3 4,086.3 3,952.9 3,945.3 3,874.4 3,587.7 3,141.4
4,996.3 4,908.4 4,782.3 4,286.8 4,039.8 3,914.8 3,911.9 3,842.7 3,560.2 3,117.5
60.0 57.8 53.9 48.3 41.7 34.3 29.5 28.7 24.4 21.2
6.6 5.5 5.9 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.1 2.8
Table 7 Employment by sector. Χ2 = 528685,1247 d.f. = 27 Sig = 0.001 Number of workers
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inter-annual variation in number of workers
Agrarian
Industrial
Construction
Services
Agrarian
Industrial
Construction
Services
1,241,768 1,232,535 1,230,607 1,243,061 1,199,657 1,163,695 1,326,688 1,299,423 1,243,970 1,079,855
2,369,662 2,406,791 2,401,468 2,389,851 2,390,856 2,381,844 2,550,031 2,599,758 2,515,155 2,167,947
1,274,622 1,367,103 1,446,151 1,508,210 1,612,630 1,766,891 1,965,613 2,019,866 1,747,052 1,365,351
7,456,833 7,872,740 8,215,815 8,554,985 9,002,692 9,506,337 9,706,892 10,197,915 10,439,251 10,334,501
−0.74% −0.16% 1.01% −3.49% −3.00% 14.01% −2.06% −4.27% −13.19%
1.57% −0.22% −0.48% 0.04% −0.38% 7.06% 1.95% −3.25% −13.80%
7.26% 5.78% 4.29% 6.92% 9.57% 11.25% 2.76% −13.51% −21.85%
5.58% 4.36% 4.13% 5.23% 5.59% 2.11% 5.06% 2.37% −1.00%
In this section, we seek to find out whether these factors also have decisive influence towards changing trends of injury rates reported in times of economic crisis. Thus, the injuries that occurred during the period 2005–2009 were selected, with the objective of analyzing the possible influence of the aforementioned factors on injury rates in each of these years.
3.2.1. Age of the injured worker Salminen found that young workers suffered more injuries versus older workers though the latter ones did have been more serious. In Spain, the average age of the injured worker rose from 32.5 years old in 2005 to 38.2 years in 2009. In other words, the injured workers were older in times of crisis. This might have influenced injury rates and contributed to the fall in the incidence index over these years.
Wright and Lund (1998) found that new workers had more injuries than veteran workers did. In Table 9, we can see that, in effect, there was a substantial reduction in younger workers involved in injuries over the years of economic crisis. On the contrary, the percentages of older workers involved in injuries increased over these years.
3.2.2. Length of service of the injured worker We also found that the average length of service in months of the injured workers increased considerably. In fact, it rose from 35.2 months in 2005 to 57.8 months in 2009. It would appear that the economic crisis affected unskilled workers in that they were the first to lose their jobs. Moreover, the more seasoned workers had fewer injuries. This situation therefore also helps to explain the reasons why the incidence index fell over these years of economic decline.
Table 8 Injury type. Χ2 = 7,204,248 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001 2005
Wounds Fractures Strains and sprains Concussions & internal Burns Multiple injuries Stroke Other injuries Lost data 12,275.
2006
2007
2008
2009
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
332,071 56,840 378,257 46,163 14,111 8,425 1,297 49,060
37.5% 6.4% 42.7% 5.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 5.5%
350,473 57,537 386,919 48,332 13,741 8,531 1,229 53,404
38.1% 6.3% 42.0% 5.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 5.8%
348,834 56,800 403,021 48,530 12,965 9,030 1,492 45,188
37.7% 6.1% 43.5% 5.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 4.9%
283,370 49,046 360,627 40,618 11,133 8,585 1,595 37,632
35.8% 6.2% 45.5% 5.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 4.7%
210,735 38,804 287,684 30,404 8,637 7,098 1,111 28,209
34.4% 6.3% 47.0% 5.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% 4.6%
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Table 9 Age of injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 29,890.834 d.f. = 25 Sig = 0.001 Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
From 16 to 20 years
From 21 to 30 years
From 31 to 40 years
From 41 to 50 years
Older than 50 years
Total N = 4,149,813
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
59,880 59,138 57,334 40,363 19,960
6.8 6.4 6.2 5.1 3.1
288,151 290,056 278,632 223,637 153,655
32.5 31.5 30.1 28.2 25.1
255,017 269,661 275,045 238,365 190,497
28.8 29.3 29.7⁎
174,902 188,644 197,012 179,122 150,693
19.7 20.5 21.3 22.6 24.6
108,274 112,667 117,837 111,119 978,77
12.2 12.2 12.7 14.0 16.0
30.1 31.1
Lost data 12,275. ⁎ Corrected standardized residues b 1.96 in absolute terms.
Table 10 Length of service of the injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 49,674.273 d.f. = 15 Sig = 0.001 Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Less than 6 months
From 6 months to 1
From 1 to 2 years
Over 2 years
Total N = 4,149,813
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
344,903 360,498 359,949 270,630 170,046
38.92 39.18 38.88 34.14 27.75
106,427 116,234 116,965 94,030 57,481
12.0 12.6 12.6 11.9⁎ 9.4
101,241 105,999 114,726 76,967 76,967
11.4 11.5 12.4 9.7 12.6
333,653 337,435 334,220 321,814 308,188
37.6 36.7 36.1 40.6 50.3
Lost data 12,275. ⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
Table 11 Gender of injured workers. Χ2 = 11,376.769 d.f. = 5 Sig = 0.001 Men
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Women
Total N = 4,149,813
Injuries
Workers
Incidence rate
Number
Workers
Incidence rate
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
707,018 729,952 723,628 601,707 450,367
8,680,712 9,141,634 9,257,924 8,819,751 8,157,404
8,144.7 7,984.9⁎
179,206 190,214 202,232 190,899 162,315
6,059,712 6,513,477 6,827,377 6,810,279 6,672,694
2,957.3 2,920.3 2,962.1 2,803.1 2,432.5
7,816.3 6,822.3 5,521.0
Lost data 12,275. ⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
As shown in Table 10, the length of service of injured workers underwent relevant changes over the years 2008–2009. Thus, the injury rate for workers with over 2-years length of service rose from 37.6% to 50.3%. On the contrary, the percentage of new workers involved in injuries fell from 38.9% to 27.7%. 3.2.3. Gender of the injured workers Wagener and Winn (1991) and Pines, Lemesch, and Grafstein (1992) found that women suffered fewer injuries than men. In Spain, it may be seen from Table 11 that difference also applies; in fact, for every four-workplace injuries, approximately three involved men and only one involved women. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the number of injuries per 100,000 workers fell, descending from 2005 to 2009 for men and women. Note that this decline is much more profound among men (Table 11). Within the European Union, an increase is occurring in the numbers of female workers that tend to equal those of male workers. The female employment rate, in 2009, stood at 58.6%, although what is more important than the increasing female employment rate, the gap between
female/male employment rates has dropped considerably to 15.5 points (EU-OSHA, 2011). In Spain, it also tends to balance, so in 2008, the average employed population increased in the group of women by 2.0% while in men fell by 2.2% (SEPE, 2008). In 2011, there was a reduction of the working population in both groups, but the reduction was greater among men (− 2.9%) than women (− 0.7%) (SEPE, 2011). However, men do more dangerous jobs and activities. This can be seen in the construction industry, where men work more than women. In the health field, however, working women outnumber men (EU-OSHA, 2011).
3.2.4. Size of the firm affecting work injuries Fabiano et al. (2004) showed that firm size had an inverse relation with frequency indices in all productive sectors. Equally, the frequency index3 for fatal injuries and permanent disability fell when the size of the firm increased. 3 The frequency index is defined here as the quotient relation between the number of injuries and the number of hours worked.
V.S. de la Fuente et al. / Journal of Safety Research 48 (2014) 77–85
Since 1 January 2005, the European Union classified firms by their employee numbers, as micro, small, medium-sized, and large enterprises. Recommendation 2003/361/EC of 6 May 2006 (European Commission, 2003) defines a micro-enterprise as one with up to 10 employees; a small enterprise between 10 and 49 workers; a mediumsized between 50 and 249 workers and a large enterprise over 250 employees.
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The size of the firm of the injured workers is analyzed in Table 12; over the years of economic crisis the percentage of accidents declined with greater intensity in small firms (10–49 workers). The contrary holds true for all the other enterprises. The best example is the large enterprise (over 250 workers), where injury rates rose from 13.7% in 2005 to 17.5% in 2009. However, these changes do not occur in the same way in all sectors, as can be seen in Tables 12a, b, c and d.
Table 12 Size of the firm of the injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 8,222.672 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001 Years Total N = 4,149,813 2005 886,224 2006 920,166 2007 925,860 2008 792,606 2009 612,682 Data losses 12,275
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
143,123 142,450 143,901 125,488 101,219
16.1 15.5 15.5 15.8⁎ 16.5
415,736 427,371 428,920 349,571 256,239
46.9 46.4 46.3 44.1 41.8
205,992 219,069 219,038 189,484 148,138
23.24 23.81 23.66⁎
121,373 131,276 134,001 128,063 107,086
13.70 14.27 14.47 16.16 17.48
23.91 24.18
a. Agricultural sector Χ2 = 305.825 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 159,545
2005 33,534 2006 33,458 2007 33,753 2008 31,954 2009 26,846 Data losses 379
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
10,814 11,047 10,766 10,697 9,903
32.2⁎ 33.0⁎ 31.9 33.5⁎ 36.9
13,152 13,086 13,330 12,180 9,652
39.2 39.1 39.5 38.1⁎ 36.0
6,507 6,108 6,389 5,971 4,433
19.4 18.3⁎ 18.9 18.7⁎ 16.5
3,061 3,217 3,268 3,106 2,858
% 9.1 9.6⁎ 9.7⁎ 9.7⁎ 10.6
b. Industrial sector Χ2 = 2856.548 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 1,034,137
2005 232,565 2006 237,292 2007 236,074 2008 203,671 2009 124,535 Data losses 3,925
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
23,503 23,435 21,791 19,266 12,435
10.1 9.9 9.2 9.5 10.0
105,201 109,095 107,371 90,078 57,043
45.2 46.0 45.5 44.2 45.8
68,121 68,996 70,559 61,922 32,405
29.3 29.1 29.9⁎ 30.4 26.0
35,740 35,766 36,353 32,405 22,652
15.4 15.1 15.4 15.9 18.2
c. Construction sector Χ2 = 2856.548 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 1,051,561
2005 238,667 2006 253,789 2007 250,938 2008 185,029 2009 123,138 Data losses 2,342
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
53,230 52,799 57,828 45,517 33,132
22.3 20.8 23.0⁎ 24.6 26,9
141,424 147,514 146,996 105,754 67,692
59.3 58.1 58.6 57.2 55,0
38,136 45,336 39,536 28,125 18,828
16.0 17.9 15.8 15.2 15,3
5,877 8,140 6,578 5,633 3,486
2.5 3.2 2.6 3.0⁎ 2.8
d. Service sector Χ2 = 2,759.348 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 1,882,344
2005 381,458 2006 395,627 2007 405,084 2008 371,952 2009 328,223 Data losses 5,629.
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
55,576 55,169 53,513 50,008 45,749
14.6 13.9 13.2 13.4 13.9
155,959 157,676 161,223 141,559 121,852
40.9 39.9 39.8 38.1 37.1
93,228 98,629 102,553 93,466 82,498
24.4⁎ 24.9 25.3 25.1 25.1
76,695 84,153 87,795 86,919 78,124
20.1 21.3 21.7 23.4 23.8
⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
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suffering an injury and of suffering a major injury also decline with even greater intensity. A series of factors that might cause the drop in the injury incidence index (minor and seriousness) in times of (economic) crisis are detailed below:
Table 13 Type of contract of injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 50 697.719 d.f. = 5 Sig = 0.001 Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Permanent contracts
Fixed-term contracts
Total N = 4,149,813
Number
%
Number
%
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
415,917 426,200 460,292 432,460 375,194
46.93⁎ 46.32 49.72 54.56 61.24
468,868 483,615 454,603 345,939 225,407
52.91 52.56 49.10 43.65 36.79
Lost data 12,260. ⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
3.2.5. Type of contract associated with injured workers It was also demonstrated that the stability of employment has a clear effect on the duration of absenteeism (Askildsen et al., 2005). In our study, the type of injured workers' contract was analyzed over the years 2005–2009 in order to observe whether it was affected in times of recession. Table 13 confirms that, throughout the crisis years, there were considerably fewer injured workers with temporary contracts while injured workers with full-time contracts increased. It appears that workers with fixed-term contracts were the first to be laid off in times of economic recession, while workers with permanent contracts were retained. This fact might have some influence on the reduction of the seriousness index in times of crisis. In summary, we explain the reduction in the incidence index in times of economic crisis by the greater age and length of service of the injured workers. Moreover, the rise in the index of injuries suffered by women might have some influence regardless of any increase in the index of injuries suffered by men. It may also be explained because injury rates were reduced with greater intensity in small enterprises, characterized by higher injury indices and, finally, by the significant reduction in injury rates among less stable workers. 4. Discussion The current economic crisis in Spain has provoked a decline in occupational injury rates. Other studies have investigated injuries at times of economic slow-downs as well as injury severity. However, this work analyzed possible factors that provoked a reduction in occupational injury rates in times of economic crisis. In the Introduction, it was seen that various authors highlighted how occupational injuries increase in times of economic growth and decline in times of recession; in other words, injury rates vary according to economic fluctuations. Our study confirms that the number of injuries was affected by the economic crisis. In fact, the year 2007, in which current economic crisis began in Spain, acted as an inflection point for occupational injury rates. In the years leading up to the crisis, considered years of economic expansion, an increase in the number of injuries was noted and as from 2008, the tendency changed dramatically and injuries on the whole started to descend. This phenomenon is not mirrored in the major injuries. Major injuries have always fallen since 2001, but the number drops further from the beginning of the crisis. In this study, it was confirmed that the seriousness index was also affected by the economic crisis. In fact, since 2005, the seriousness index fell progressively, however, as from 2007 up until 2009, this fall intensified considerably. The economic crisis has affected injury rates to a greater extent in the construction and in industry sectors in Spain, but the reduction of injuries observed in the construction sector was especially intense. The main conclusion is that the economic crisis in Spain has affected occupational injury rates. In effect, during the economic crisis, the number of minor and major injuries declined. Curiously, the probabilities of
a. The average age of the injured workers increases. Considering that, it has also been shown that younger workers suffer a higher incidence index in times of economic crisis; this could be a reason for the reduction in the incidence index. b. In addition, the average length of service of injured workers has considerably increased in times of crisis. c. Injury rates for men with respect to women fell in times of crisis; hence this may also be a cause for the reduction in the injury and serious incident indices. d. The reduction in the injury rates of small enterprises and the important reduction of injury rates among less experienced workers with less employment stability might have been the reason for the sharp reduction recorded in the number of major injuries per 100,000 workers. In conclusion, we wish to point out that economic crises appear to provoke a sort of “natural selection” in the labor market and only the best adapted tend to remain (older workers, with more experience, a higher percentage of women, more workers in larger companies and permanent contracts), all of which means that the probability of workers having an injury is considerably reduced. 4.1. Limitations Fatal injury rates have only been included in the study by sector; these injuries have not been included for the rest of the variables because no significant results were observed, perhaps because of the reduced number of these injuries in the sample under analysis (0.10%) in comparison with total injuries. This study do not examine the causes of variations in the number of accidents and their rates, only studied the variation in the number and rates during crisis period according to different criteria and types of accidents. Acknowledgments Our thanks to the Subdirección General de Estadísticas del Ministerio de Trabajo e Inmigración [General Statistics Sub-Directorate of the Ministry of Employment and Immigration] for authorizing access to the anonymous data on workplace injuries, and to the Consejería de Economía y Empleo de la Junta de Castilla y León [Ministry of Economy and Employment of the Junta of Castile and Leon] for the training program through practicum in the field of technological research and innovation for university graduates. References Álvarez, J. A. (2008). La Banca Española Ante La Actual Crisis Financiera. Estabilidad Financiera, 15, 21–38. Asfaw, A., Pana-Cryan, R., & Rosa, R. (2011). The business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries: Evidence for the U.S.A. Journal of Safety Research, 42(1), 1–8. Askildsen, J. E., Bratberg, E., & Nilsen, O. A. (2005). Unemployment, labor force composition and sickness absence: A panel data study. Health Economics, 14(11), 1087–1101. Boone, J., Van Ours, J. C., & Research, C.f.E.P. (2002). Cyclical fluctuations in workplace injuries: Centre for Economic Policy Research. IZA discussion paper. Chau, N., Wild, P., Dehaene, D., Benamghar, L., Mur, J. M., & Touron, C. (2010). Roles of age, length of service and job in work-related injury: A prospective study of 446 120 person-years in railway workers. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 67(3), 147–153. Davies, R., Jones, P., & Nunez, I. (2009). The impact of the business cycle on occupational injuries in the UK. Social Science & Medicine, 69(2), 178–182. EU-OSHA (2011). European Agency for Safety and Health at Work “Risks and trends in the safety and health of women at work”. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/ reports/new-risks-trends-osh-women
V.S. de la Fuente et al. / Journal of Safety Research 48 (2014) 77–85 European Commission (2003). Commission Recommendation of 6 May 2003, concerning the definition of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Official Journal of the European Union, 124(36). Fabiano, B., Curro, F., & Pastorino, R. (2004). A study of the relationship between occupational injuries and firm size and type in the Italian industry. Safety Science, 42(7), 587–600. Garro, P. A., & Aldaz, I. N. (2007). El comportamiento cíclico de la siniestralidad laboral en España (1986–2004). Granados, J. A. T. (2008). Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan. Demography, 45(2), 323–343. Kossoris, M.D. (1938). Industrial injuries and the business cycle. Monthly Laboratory Review, 46, 579. Kossoris, M. (1943). Changes in the injury frequency rates and employment in manufacturing. Monthly Labor Review, 66(5), 949–954. Leigh, J. P. (1985). The effects of unemployment and the business-cycle on absenteeism. Journal of Economics and Business, 37(2), 159–170. Lopez, M.A.C., Ritzel, D. O., Fontaneda, I., & Alcantara, O. J. G. (2008). Construction industry injuries in Spain. Journal of Safety Research, 39(5), 497–507. Neumayer, E. (2004). Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: Evidence from Germany. Social Science & Medicine, 58(6), 1037–1047. Ore, T. (1998). Women in the US construction industry: An analysis of fatal occupational injury experience, 1980 to 1992. American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 33(3), 256–262. Pines, A., Lemesch, C., & Grafstein, O. (1992). Regression-analysis of time trends in occupational injuries (Israel, 1970–1980). Safety Science, 15(2), 77–95. Román, A.M. (2006). Siniestralidad laboral y ciclo económico:¿ Una relación meramente estadística o un fenómeno real? Review MTAS, 61, 157–171. Royo, S. (2009). After the fiesta: The Spanish economy meets the global financial crisis. South European Society and Politics, 14(1), 19–34. Ruhm, C. J. (2000). Are recessions good for your health? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(2), 617–650. Salminen, S. (2004). Have young workers more injuries than older ones? An international literature review. Journal of Safety Research, 35, 513–521.
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Schuster, M., & Rhodes, S. (1985). The impact of overtime work on industrial injury rates. Industrial Relations, 24(2), 234–246. SEPE (2008). Informe anual 2008. Servicio Público de Empleo Estatal. : Ministerio de Trabajo e Inmigración. Gobierno de España (http://www.sepe.es/contenido/conocenos/ publicaciones/pdf/Informe_Anual_2008.pdf) SEPE (2011). Informe anual 2011. Servicio Público de Empleo Estatal. : Ministerio de Empleo y Seguridad Social. Gobierno de España (http://www.sepe.es/contenido/ conocenos/publicaciones/pdf/Informe_Anual_2011.pdf) Shea, J. (1990). Injury rates, labor effort and the business cycle. SSRI Working Paper. Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin, Department of Economics. Wagener, D. K., & Winn, D. W. (1991). Injuries in working populations—Black–white differences. American Journal of Public Health, 81(11), 1408–1414. Wright, C., & Lund, J. (1998). ‘Under the clock’: Trade union responses to computerised control in US and Australian grocery warehousing. New Technology, Work and Employment, 13(1), 3–15. Verónica Sedano de la Fuente, Ph.D. is on the Construction Engineering faculty at the University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain. Miguel A. Camino López, Ph.D. is an Economic Science faculty member at the University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain. Ignacio Fontaneda González, Ph.D. is a faculty member in Industrial Engineering at the University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain. Oscar J. González Alcántara, Ph.D. is an Industrial Engineering faculty member at the University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain. Dale O. Ritzel, Ph.D. is professor emeritus at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, IL USA.
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Journal of Safety Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jsr
The impact of the economic crisis on occupational injuries Verónica Sedano de la Fuente a, Miguel A. Camino López b, Ignacio Fontaneda González c, Oscar J. González Alcántara c, Dale O. Ritzel d,⁎ a
Construction Engineering, University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain Economic Science, University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain Industrial Engineering, University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain d Safety Center, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901-6731, USA b c
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Received 31 January 2012 Received in revised form 3 September 2013 Accepted 21 December 2013 Available online 3 January 2014 Keywords: Economic crisis Injuries Accidents Unemployment Severity
a b s t r a c t Introduction: The potential influence of the current economic crisis on occupational accident rates and accident severity is studied in an analysis of all workplace accidents that occurred in Spain throughout the period 2000–2009. Method and results: The investigation confirms that occupational accidents in Spain are affected by the current economic crisis, which has provoked a sharp fall in both the number of accidents and the probability of having one. This may be justified by certain factors such as age, gender, length of service, size of the firm, and the employment stability of the injured worker. The influence of these factors is analyzed. Practical applications: The economic crises seems to provoke a sort of “natural selection” in the labor market and only the best adapted tend to remain (older workers, with more experience, a higher percentage of women, more workers in larger companies and permanent contracts), all of which means that the probability of workers having an injury is considerably reduced. © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction Economic crises can incur serious losses for the general public, leading to the loss of employment and resources and, in short, quality of life. Economic crises can also be harmful for people's health. In fact, the scientific literature points to a strong inverse relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health (Ruhm, 2000). The same conclusion has also been reached in European countries such as Germany (Neumayer, 2004) and Spain (Granados, 2008). Over the past decade, the most successful economy in Europe with the highest growth rate was the Spanish economy. Immigration, low interest rates, and liberalization of the Spanish economy all contributed to this spectacular economic development (known as a “real estate bubble”) driven by the construction sector. However, successful growth ended in 2007, since which time Spain has been experiencing a painful economic recession (Royo, 2009). The current financial crisis began in Spain in 2007, after a five-year period of high liquidity on the financial markets (Álvarez, 2008). Furthermore, the global financial crisis coincided in Spain with the end of an expansive cyclical phase and the pricking of the “real-estate bubble,” which acted as a significant factor in the subsequent phase of economic decline.
⁎ Corresponding author at: Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901-6731, USA. E-mail address: [email protected] (D.O. Ritzel).
In this economic and financial situation, a significant change occurred in both the unemployment rate and the injury rate. This may be ascertained from the graph in Fig. 1, which represents variations in the inter-annual rates of unemployment, numbers of injuries, and the incidence index1 over the period 2000 to 2009. It may be seen, in effect, that the year 2007 marked an inflection point for these rates. In addition, the pace at which the number of injuries and the incidence index changed was very similar and significant reductions were recorded from 2007 onwards; in other words, at the height of the economic crisis. This inflection point in 2007 may be seen in Figs. 2 and 3 in the frequency index. The main aim of this work was to study variations in injury rates during the current economic crisis and to analyze the possible causes that may have provoked them. Many authors confirmed that occupational injury rates are influenced by economic cycles. Thus, periods of economic slow-downs may accompany a reduction in the number of injuries. Therefore, it would be logical to suppose that during an economic crisis, with a rise in unemployment and subsequent fall in the number of employed workers, the number of injuries would also fall. We studied what happens to the indices, which make allowance for any variations in the number of workers. It was interesting to shed light on the reasons for which the incidence index fell in times of economic crisis (Fig. 1).
1 The incidence index is defined as the quotient relation of the number of injuries over the number of workers (number of injuries per 100,000 workers).
0022-4375/$ – see front matter © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2013.12.007
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70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10,00% -20,00% -30,00% Unemployment
Accidents
Incidence index
Fig. 1. Inter-annual variation in the rate of unemployment, number of injuries and the incidence index. Spain 2000–2009.
The first studies conducted on injury rates in times of economic expansion established that the demand for work led to an accelerated rhythm of work and in consequence an increase in the workload. They also made clear that the rapid incorporation of a fresh, inexperienced workforce increased injury rates at work (Kossoris, 1938; Kossoris, 1943). Other authors shared this view, when they have argued that an increased workload implies a longer working day with overtime, resulting in workers becoming even more tired and having more injuries. By spending more time at their place of work, it has been suggested that workers were likely to suffer more injuries (Shea, 1990). On the contrary, other authors were unable to find any clear evidence that overtime and work-load affect injuries in the workplace (Schuster & Rhodes, 1985). Studies have also looked at the influence of the economic crisis on injury severity. Davies, Jones, and Nunez (2009) studied the cyclical
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
TOTAL
Agrarian Sector
Construction Sector
fluctuations in rates of workplace injury in the United Kingdom from 1986 to 2005 and established that, throughout cycles of economic expansion, minor injuries were pro-cyclical, whereas major injuries were not affected by the level of economic activity. These studies determined that fluctuations were more intense in construction and production activities (Davies et al., 2009). Other authors have indicated that workers tended to underreport minor injuries during a recession (Román, 2006), which reduce the official number of minor injuries that they reported. Along these same lines, it was also recognized that fluctuations in workplace injuries were related to lower levels of injury notification by workers, in times of crisis, and not with greater safety levels (Boone, Van Ours, & Research, C.f.E.P., 2002). The same conclusion was reached in Spain, where the unemployment rate was shown to be inversely related to redundancy notifications (Garro & Aldaz, 2007). Leigh (1985) also established a relation between unemployment and occupational absenteeism indicating the higher unemployment occurred the lower absenteeism was that may predominantly associated with avoiding of absenteeism-related layoff (Leigh, 1985). Some authors found that the duration of redundancies in times of recession varied according to the experience of the work-force and their stability of employment; so, employment stability had an obvious effect on the duration of absenteeism (Askildsen, Bratberg, & Nilsen, 2005). Differences have been found in the effect of business cycle in different sectors (Asfaw, Pana-Cryan, & Rosa, 2011). Some factors influence injury rates and the severity of injuries, including age (Salminen, 2004), length of service (Chau et al., 2010), gender (Ore, 1998), firm size (Fabiano, Curro, & Pastorino, 2004), and type of contract (Lopez, Ritzel, Fontaneda, & Alcantara, 2008). This study seeks to establish whether the current economic crisis affected workplace injuries and their severity in Spain.
2. Methods 2.1. Data collection All injuries in Spain, the consequences of which resulted in one or more days off work were notified based on the National Institute of Safety and Hygiene at Work (INSHT; Instituto Nacional de Seguridad e Higiene en el Trabajo). Data of work injuries were obtained from the Ministry of Work and Immigration [Ministerio de Trabajo e Inmigración] that included the incidence index, seriousness index,2 and the number of injuries for the years 2000 to 2009, which amounted to 8,713,981. For a further analysis for the period between 2005 and 2009, Notifications of Workplace Injuries held on file by the INSHT, dependent on the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Immigration, were collected for an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing injury rates. The number of injuries (4.149.813) resulting in time off work from 2005 to 2009 was analyzed. The two-year period 2005–2006 was selected as these were years of economic expansion. The year 2007 was selected because the crisis began in that year and the two following years (2008 and 2009) because they were considered years of complete crisis. In Spain, medical staff are required to diagnose the seriousness of workplace injuries. Major injuries include: amputation of any body part, fractures in any long bone, head trauma, burns of second or third degree, severe injuries in hand, spine injuries, and injuries that compromise the visual and/or hearing capabilities. From among the injuries analyzed for the study of factors influencing injury rates, 4,170,201 (98.97% of the total) were classified as “minor,” 38,472 (0.93%) as major, and 4,150 (0.10%) had fatal consequences.
Industrial Sector Services Sector
Fig. 2. Frequency index data by sector (injuries per 1.000.000 h worked).
2 The injury seriousness index is defined as the quotient relation of the number of days lost due to injuries and the total number of hours worked.
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79
10,0%
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0,0%
1991
5,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
-20,0% Fig. 3. Inter-annual variation in frequency index (injuries per 1.000.000 h worked). Spain 1991–2009.
2.2. Study design Having obtained the information on the total number of injuries and their seriousness over the period 2000 to 2009, the factors that had the most significant relation with injury rates in times of crisis were identified. On the one hand, injuries were analyzed as an absolute value, and, on the other, the incidence index or probability of having an injury. The variation in the number of major injuries was studied in both the major injury index (number of major injuries per 100,000 workers) and the seriousness index. The latter index is calculated as days off work due to occupational injuries per 1,000 hours worked. For the years 2005 to 2009, the study centered on injuries and their relation with the age, length of service, and gender of the injured worker, as well as on the size of the firm and employment stability. 2.3. Statistical analysis The statistical studies were expressed as the number of injuries and the injury incidence index for each year (2000–2009) in each activity sector. Data from the Ministry of Employment and Immigration were used for this analysis. A study of days off work was also performed, with the seriousness index for the same period 2000–2009. Furthermore, the age, length of service, and gender of the injured worker, as well as the size of the firm and the type of contract over the years 2005–2009 were all analyzed. Contingency Tables were used to analyze the relation between the time in years and the variables, in which the value of the Chi squared statistic (Χ2) was calculated to test the hypothesis of independence of the crisis with respect to the different variables selected on injury rates. This statistical test revealed the possible influence of these variables over the years of economic expansion and crisis. The corrected standardized residuals (csr) were also obtained from the tables, placing an asterisk next to those with a value of below 1.96 in absolute terms, the statistical significance of which was not sufficient to reject the hypothesis of the independence of the variables. Those values greater than 1.96 in absolute terms may be said to have more than a random influence on the variable under examination in relation to variations in the injury rate. All analyses were performed on the statistical software analysis package SPSS V18. 3. Results As indicated in the Introduction, not only was 2007 the year in which the current economic crisis began, but it was also the year in which all the employment and injury rate trends changed.
Table 1 confirms that the year 2007 was an inflection point. In fact, the number of injuries tended to increase over the years of economic expansion, considered to be 2005–2006 and part of 2007. However, this tendency changed sharply starting in 2008, when a marked descent began in the number of injuries. It was also found that the trend of the incidence indices appeared to be progressively downward with an approximate annual decline of 3.8%. This trend change started from 2007, with a much more intense drop from 12% in 2008 to 18.5% in 2009. These observations demonstrated that the current crisis in Spain had indeed influenced occupational injury rates in terms of both the number of injuries and the probability of a worker having an injury. With regard to the seriousness of the injuries, we found that minor injuries underwent a pro-cyclic evolution, as they rise in times of economic expansion and fall in times of crisis. However, it may not be true for major injuries, as they fall down year after year both during economic expansion and crisis periods but more notable in the latter. With regard to the incidence indices for minor and for major injuries, we found that the decrease occurred regardless of the economic situation but intensified considerably in times of crisis. The results of the analysis of the seriousness index are shown in Table 2. The seriousness index was calculated as the number of days lost due to workplace injuries for each 1,000 hours at work. Table 2 shows us the evolution of this index over recent years and we see how it fell notably over the years of intense economic crisis from 2008 to 2009. This significant decline in the number of major injuries per 100,000 workers registered over the years 2008 and 2009 may explain the reduction in the number of lost working days to a certain extent.
Table 1 Number of injuries and incidence index in Spain, 2000–2009. Year
Number of injuries N = 8,713,981
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
932,932 946,600 938,188 874,724 871,724 890,872 911,561 924,981 804,959 617,440
920,156 933,484 925,201 862,588 860,304 880,682 902,062 915,574 797,257 611,626
11,640 12,086 11,886 11,116 10,452 9,255 8,552 8,581 6,892 5,182
1,136 1,030 1,101 1,020 968 935 947 826 810 632
7,558.4 7,549.9 7,057.2 6,386.7 6,136.4 6,011.8 5,880.1 5,760.3 5,069.1 4,130.7
7,454.8 7,445.2 6,959.5 6,298.0 6,056.0 5,943.0 5,818.8 5,701.7 5,020.6 4,091.8
94.3 96.4 89.4 81.1 73.5 62.4 55.1 53.4 43.4 34.6
9.2 8.0 8.3 7.4 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.1 5.8 4.2
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Table 2 Seriousness index, Spain, 2000–2009.
Table 4 Number of injuries and incidence indices. Industrial sector. Spain, 2000–2009.
Working days lost per 1,000 hours worked
Χ2 = 424.1938283 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001
Years
Year
Number of injuries N = 2,358,875 Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
272,786 265,818 252,548 237,967 244,740 242,336 244,344 245,074 210,765 142,497
269,624 262,549 249,416, 235,112 241,986 239,831 242,032 242,789 208,933 141,228
2,926 3,053 2,908 2,642 2,551 2,313 2,106 2,129 1,674 1,145
236 216 224 213 203 192 206 156 158 124
11,511.6 11,044.5 10,516.4 9,957.4 10,236.5 10,174.3 9,582.0 9,426.8 8,379.8 6,572.9
11,378.2 10,908.7 10,386.0 9,837.9 10,121.4 10,069.1 9,491.3 9,338.9 8,307.0 6,514.4
123.5 126.8 121.1 110.6 106.7 97.1 82.6 81.9 66.6 52.8
10.0 9.0 9.3 8.9 8.5 8.1 8.2 6.1 7.0 5.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Seriousness 0.96 index
0.97
0.95
0.88
0.80
0.82
0.79
0.82
0.67
0.66
3.1. Injuries by sectors One of the questions proposed was whether the crisis equally affects injury rates in the different productive sectors or whether, on the contrary, it affects some sectors more than others did. An analysis by sector that described the main results for each one is set out below. 3.1.1. Agrarian sector Table 3 indicates that injury rates in the agrarian sector were not pro-cyclic. In fact, there were fewer injuries in 2006 than there were in 2005 and, curiously, more major injuries in 2008 than in 2007. When we analyze the incidence indices, we found that the incidence index for minor injuries fell in times of crisis and, curiously, the incidence index for major injuries increased. Without a doubt, this observation needs further investigation in depth. 3.1.2. Industrial sector As shown in Table 4, the number of injuries that occurred in 2009 fell by 42% in relation to the number recorded in 2006. The probability of suffering an injury also fell significantly between 2006 and 2009. In fact, the injury rate for minor injuries was reduced by 31%, for major ones by 36%, and for fatal injuries by 30%. 3.1.3. Construction sector This sector suffered more than any other from the economic crisis in Spain (Table 7), and, in consequence, resulted in a higher unemployment rate with significant variations. In Table 5, it may be seen that the number of injuries in 2009 was reduced by more than 50% with respect to the number reported in 2006. The incidence index between 2006 and 2009 for minor injuries fell by 29%, for major injuries by 35%, and for fatal injuries by 16%. 3.1.4. Service sector The service sector suffered the least from the effects of the economic crisis. Thus, it is clear from Table 6 that the number of injuries suffered in 2009 fell by only 15% with respect to the number reported in 2006. We found that, between 2006 and 2009, the incidence indices experienced significant reductions, with respect to the probability of having an injury. In fact, the incidence index declined by 20% for minor injuries, by 28% for major injuries, and again by 28% for fatal ones.
Table 3 Number of injuries and incidence index. Agrarian sector. Spain, 2000–2009.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.1.5. Type of injury Analyzing the type of injury (Table 8), it was found that all injuries have experienced a significant reduction in the years analyzed. However, there was an increased percentage in sprain or strain injuries. Analyzing injuries in the different productive sectors we observed that in the agricultural sector (Χ2 = 220,543 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001) the importance of wounds decreased from 2005 to 2009 falling from 35.0% to 32.9%. On the contrary, there were an increase in the percentage of fractures and strains and sprains from 8.9% and 41.2% to 9.4% and 43.3% respectively. In the industry sector (X 2 = 1,388,667 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001) the main differences occurred in the strains and sprains which increased from 38.8% in 2005 to 41.6% in 2009. Wounds decreased from 41.7% to 40.3%. Fractures, just suffer variations, from 6.1% to 6.2%. Similar variations, but more intense, are recorded in the construction sector (X 2 = 2,367,165 d.f = 28 Sig = 0.001), where strains and sprains go from 39.3% to 44.2% and wounds, however, down from 41.0% to 37.2%. Fractures meanwhile remain in the 7.0%. Finally, in the service sector (X 2 = 2,223,780 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001), fractures hardly vary from 6.00% to 5.9%, wounds from 32.9% to 31.1% and strains and sprains recorded the biggest change going from 47.3% to 50.5%. We found that the economic crisis influenced both the number of injuries as well as the probability of having an injury. Equally, we confirmed that the crisis in the construction, industrial, and service sectors reduced, with greater proportion, the probability of having a major or fatal injury. The following sections discuss explanations for these significant reductions through the study of some of the factors influencing injury rates. 3.2. Factors influencing injury rates As stated earlier, the age, length of service, gender of the worker, size of the firm, and type of contract were factors related to the injury rates.
Table 5 Number of injuries and incidence indices. Construction sector. Spain 2000–2009.
Χ2 = 279.8777765 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001 Year
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Χ2 = 341.6471849 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001
Number of injuries N = 352,977
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
43,370 39,096 37,408 34,710 35,024 34,265 33,938 34,475 33,010 27,681
42,112 37,893 36,284 33,791 34,149 33,489 33,246 33,820 32,339 27,103
1,139 1,093 1,033 857 800 710 626 577 596 522
119 110 91 62 75 66 66 78 75 56
3,492.6 3,172.0 3,039.8 2,792.3 2,919.5 2,944.5 2,558.1 2,653.1 2,653.6 2,563.4
3,391.3 3,074.4 2,948.5 2,718.3 2,846.6 2,877.8 2,506.0 2,602.7 2,599.6 2,509.9
91.7 88.7 83.9 68.9 66.7 61.0 47.2 44.4 47.9 48.3
9.6 8.9 7.4 5.0 6.3 5.7 5.7 7.0 6.1 5.2
Year
Number of injuries N = 2,243,154
Injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
239,244 250,277 250,414 230,735 224,083 238,495 250,313 250,324 186,655 122,614
235,853 246,618 246,592 226,955 220,478 235,212 247,059 247,094 184,326 121,120
3,099 3,390 3,518 3,482 3,343 2,973 2,958 2,952 2,076 1,329
292 269 304 298 262 310 296 278 253 165
18,769.8 18,307.1 17,315.9 15,298.6 13,895.5 13,498.0 12,734.6 12,393.1 10,684.0 8,980.4
18,503.8 18,039.4 17,051.6 15,048.0 13,671.9 13,312.2 12,569.1 12,233.2 10,550.7 8,871.0
243.1 248.0 243.3 230.9 207.3 168.3 150.5 146.1 118.8 97.3
22.9 19.7 21.0 19.8 16.2 17.5 14.4 13.5 13.6 12.1
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Table 6 Number of injuries and incidence index. Service sector. Spain, 2000–2009. Χ2 = 1,695.764087 d.f. = 18 Sig = 0.001 Number of injuries N = 3,758,975
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Number of injuries per 100,000 workers
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
Total
Minor
Major
Fatal
377,532 391,409 397,818 371,312 367,877 375,776 382,966 395,108 374,529 324,648
372,567 386,424 392,909 366,730 363,691 372,150 379,725 391,871 371,659 322,175
4,476 4,550 4,427 4,135 3,758 3,259 2,862 2,923 2,546 2,186
489 435 482 447 428 367 379 314 324 287
5,062.9 4,971.7 4,842.1 4,340.3 4,086.3 3,952.9 3,945.3 3,874.4 3,587.7 3,141.4
4,996.3 4,908.4 4,782.3 4,286.8 4,039.8 3,914.8 3,911.9 3,842.7 3,560.2 3,117.5
60.0 57.8 53.9 48.3 41.7 34.3 29.5 28.7 24.4 21.2
6.6 5.5 5.9 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.1 2.8
Table 7 Employment by sector. Χ2 = 528685,1247 d.f. = 27 Sig = 0.001 Number of workers
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inter-annual variation in number of workers
Agrarian
Industrial
Construction
Services
Agrarian
Industrial
Construction
Services
1,241,768 1,232,535 1,230,607 1,243,061 1,199,657 1,163,695 1,326,688 1,299,423 1,243,970 1,079,855
2,369,662 2,406,791 2,401,468 2,389,851 2,390,856 2,381,844 2,550,031 2,599,758 2,515,155 2,167,947
1,274,622 1,367,103 1,446,151 1,508,210 1,612,630 1,766,891 1,965,613 2,019,866 1,747,052 1,365,351
7,456,833 7,872,740 8,215,815 8,554,985 9,002,692 9,506,337 9,706,892 10,197,915 10,439,251 10,334,501
−0.74% −0.16% 1.01% −3.49% −3.00% 14.01% −2.06% −4.27% −13.19%
1.57% −0.22% −0.48% 0.04% −0.38% 7.06% 1.95% −3.25% −13.80%
7.26% 5.78% 4.29% 6.92% 9.57% 11.25% 2.76% −13.51% −21.85%
5.58% 4.36% 4.13% 5.23% 5.59% 2.11% 5.06% 2.37% −1.00%
In this section, we seek to find out whether these factors also have decisive influence towards changing trends of injury rates reported in times of economic crisis. Thus, the injuries that occurred during the period 2005–2009 were selected, with the objective of analyzing the possible influence of the aforementioned factors on injury rates in each of these years.
3.2.1. Age of the injured worker Salminen found that young workers suffered more injuries versus older workers though the latter ones did have been more serious. In Spain, the average age of the injured worker rose from 32.5 years old in 2005 to 38.2 years in 2009. In other words, the injured workers were older in times of crisis. This might have influenced injury rates and contributed to the fall in the incidence index over these years.
Wright and Lund (1998) found that new workers had more injuries than veteran workers did. In Table 9, we can see that, in effect, there was a substantial reduction in younger workers involved in injuries over the years of economic crisis. On the contrary, the percentages of older workers involved in injuries increased over these years.
3.2.2. Length of service of the injured worker We also found that the average length of service in months of the injured workers increased considerably. In fact, it rose from 35.2 months in 2005 to 57.8 months in 2009. It would appear that the economic crisis affected unskilled workers in that they were the first to lose their jobs. Moreover, the more seasoned workers had fewer injuries. This situation therefore also helps to explain the reasons why the incidence index fell over these years of economic decline.
Table 8 Injury type. Χ2 = 7,204,248 d.f. = 28 Sig = 0.001 2005
Wounds Fractures Strains and sprains Concussions & internal Burns Multiple injuries Stroke Other injuries Lost data 12,275.
2006
2007
2008
2009
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
332,071 56,840 378,257 46,163 14,111 8,425 1,297 49,060
37.5% 6.4% 42.7% 5.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 5.5%
350,473 57,537 386,919 48,332 13,741 8,531 1,229 53,404
38.1% 6.3% 42.0% 5.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 5.8%
348,834 56,800 403,021 48,530 12,965 9,030 1,492 45,188
37.7% 6.1% 43.5% 5.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 4.9%
283,370 49,046 360,627 40,618 11,133 8,585 1,595 37,632
35.8% 6.2% 45.5% 5.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 4.7%
210,735 38,804 287,684 30,404 8,637 7,098 1,111 28,209
34.4% 6.3% 47.0% 5.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% 4.6%
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Table 9 Age of injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 29,890.834 d.f. = 25 Sig = 0.001 Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
From 16 to 20 years
From 21 to 30 years
From 31 to 40 years
From 41 to 50 years
Older than 50 years
Total N = 4,149,813
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
59,880 59,138 57,334 40,363 19,960
6.8 6.4 6.2 5.1 3.1
288,151 290,056 278,632 223,637 153,655
32.5 31.5 30.1 28.2 25.1
255,017 269,661 275,045 238,365 190,497
28.8 29.3 29.7⁎
174,902 188,644 197,012 179,122 150,693
19.7 20.5 21.3 22.6 24.6
108,274 112,667 117,837 111,119 978,77
12.2 12.2 12.7 14.0 16.0
30.1 31.1
Lost data 12,275. ⁎ Corrected standardized residues b 1.96 in absolute terms.
Table 10 Length of service of the injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 49,674.273 d.f. = 15 Sig = 0.001 Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Less than 6 months
From 6 months to 1
From 1 to 2 years
Over 2 years
Total N = 4,149,813
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
344,903 360,498 359,949 270,630 170,046
38.92 39.18 38.88 34.14 27.75
106,427 116,234 116,965 94,030 57,481
12.0 12.6 12.6 11.9⁎ 9.4
101,241 105,999 114,726 76,967 76,967
11.4 11.5 12.4 9.7 12.6
333,653 337,435 334,220 321,814 308,188
37.6 36.7 36.1 40.6 50.3
Lost data 12,275. ⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
Table 11 Gender of injured workers. Χ2 = 11,376.769 d.f. = 5 Sig = 0.001 Men
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Women
Total N = 4,149,813
Injuries
Workers
Incidence rate
Number
Workers
Incidence rate
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
707,018 729,952 723,628 601,707 450,367
8,680,712 9,141,634 9,257,924 8,819,751 8,157,404
8,144.7 7,984.9⁎
179,206 190,214 202,232 190,899 162,315
6,059,712 6,513,477 6,827,377 6,810,279 6,672,694
2,957.3 2,920.3 2,962.1 2,803.1 2,432.5
7,816.3 6,822.3 5,521.0
Lost data 12,275. ⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
As shown in Table 10, the length of service of injured workers underwent relevant changes over the years 2008–2009. Thus, the injury rate for workers with over 2-years length of service rose from 37.6% to 50.3%. On the contrary, the percentage of new workers involved in injuries fell from 38.9% to 27.7%. 3.2.3. Gender of the injured workers Wagener and Winn (1991) and Pines, Lemesch, and Grafstein (1992) found that women suffered fewer injuries than men. In Spain, it may be seen from Table 11 that difference also applies; in fact, for every four-workplace injuries, approximately three involved men and only one involved women. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the number of injuries per 100,000 workers fell, descending from 2005 to 2009 for men and women. Note that this decline is much more profound among men (Table 11). Within the European Union, an increase is occurring in the numbers of female workers that tend to equal those of male workers. The female employment rate, in 2009, stood at 58.6%, although what is more important than the increasing female employment rate, the gap between
female/male employment rates has dropped considerably to 15.5 points (EU-OSHA, 2011). In Spain, it also tends to balance, so in 2008, the average employed population increased in the group of women by 2.0% while in men fell by 2.2% (SEPE, 2008). In 2011, there was a reduction of the working population in both groups, but the reduction was greater among men (− 2.9%) than women (− 0.7%) (SEPE, 2011). However, men do more dangerous jobs and activities. This can be seen in the construction industry, where men work more than women. In the health field, however, working women outnumber men (EU-OSHA, 2011).
3.2.4. Size of the firm affecting work injuries Fabiano et al. (2004) showed that firm size had an inverse relation with frequency indices in all productive sectors. Equally, the frequency index3 for fatal injuries and permanent disability fell when the size of the firm increased. 3 The frequency index is defined here as the quotient relation between the number of injuries and the number of hours worked.
V.S. de la Fuente et al. / Journal of Safety Research 48 (2014) 77–85
Since 1 January 2005, the European Union classified firms by their employee numbers, as micro, small, medium-sized, and large enterprises. Recommendation 2003/361/EC of 6 May 2006 (European Commission, 2003) defines a micro-enterprise as one with up to 10 employees; a small enterprise between 10 and 49 workers; a mediumsized between 50 and 249 workers and a large enterprise over 250 employees.
83
The size of the firm of the injured workers is analyzed in Table 12; over the years of economic crisis the percentage of accidents declined with greater intensity in small firms (10–49 workers). The contrary holds true for all the other enterprises. The best example is the large enterprise (over 250 workers), where injury rates rose from 13.7% in 2005 to 17.5% in 2009. However, these changes do not occur in the same way in all sectors, as can be seen in Tables 12a, b, c and d.
Table 12 Size of the firm of the injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 8,222.672 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001 Years Total N = 4,149,813 2005 886,224 2006 920,166 2007 925,860 2008 792,606 2009 612,682 Data losses 12,275
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
143,123 142,450 143,901 125,488 101,219
16.1 15.5 15.5 15.8⁎ 16.5
415,736 427,371 428,920 349,571 256,239
46.9 46.4 46.3 44.1 41.8
205,992 219,069 219,038 189,484 148,138
23.24 23.81 23.66⁎
121,373 131,276 134,001 128,063 107,086
13.70 14.27 14.47 16.16 17.48
23.91 24.18
a. Agricultural sector Χ2 = 305.825 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 159,545
2005 33,534 2006 33,458 2007 33,753 2008 31,954 2009 26,846 Data losses 379
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
10,814 11,047 10,766 10,697 9,903
32.2⁎ 33.0⁎ 31.9 33.5⁎ 36.9
13,152 13,086 13,330 12,180 9,652
39.2 39.1 39.5 38.1⁎ 36.0
6,507 6,108 6,389 5,971 4,433
19.4 18.3⁎ 18.9 18.7⁎ 16.5
3,061 3,217 3,268 3,106 2,858
% 9.1 9.6⁎ 9.7⁎ 9.7⁎ 10.6
b. Industrial sector Χ2 = 2856.548 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 1,034,137
2005 232,565 2006 237,292 2007 236,074 2008 203,671 2009 124,535 Data losses 3,925
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
23,503 23,435 21,791 19,266 12,435
10.1 9.9 9.2 9.5 10.0
105,201 109,095 107,371 90,078 57,043
45.2 46.0 45.5 44.2 45.8
68,121 68,996 70,559 61,922 32,405
29.3 29.1 29.9⁎ 30.4 26.0
35,740 35,766 36,353 32,405 22,652
15.4 15.1 15.4 15.9 18.2
c. Construction sector Χ2 = 2856.548 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 1,051,561
2005 238,667 2006 253,789 2007 250,938 2008 185,029 2009 123,138 Data losses 2,342
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
53,230 52,799 57,828 45,517 33,132
22.3 20.8 23.0⁎ 24.6 26,9
141,424 147,514 146,996 105,754 67,692
59.3 58.1 58.6 57.2 55,0
38,136 45,336 39,536 28,125 18,828
16.0 17.9 15.8 15.2 15,3
5,877 8,140 6,578 5,633 3,486
2.5 3.2 2.6 3.0⁎ 2.8
d. Service sector Χ2 = 2,759.348 d.f. = 12 Sig = 0.001
Years
Total N = 1,882,344
2005 381,458 2006 395,627 2007 405,084 2008 371,952 2009 328,223 Data losses 5,629.
Microenterprise 1 to 9
Small enterprise 10 to 49
Medium-sized enterprise 50 to 249
Large enterprise over 250
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
55,576 55,169 53,513 50,008 45,749
14.6 13.9 13.2 13.4 13.9
155,959 157,676 161,223 141,559 121,852
40.9 39.9 39.8 38.1 37.1
93,228 98,629 102,553 93,466 82,498
24.4⁎ 24.9 25.3 25.1 25.1
76,695 84,153 87,795 86,919 78,124
20.1 21.3 21.7 23.4 23.8
⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
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suffering an injury and of suffering a major injury also decline with even greater intensity. A series of factors that might cause the drop in the injury incidence index (minor and seriousness) in times of (economic) crisis are detailed below:
Table 13 Type of contract of injured workers, 2005–2009. Χ2 = 50 697.719 d.f. = 5 Sig = 0.001 Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Permanent contracts
Fixed-term contracts
Total N = 4,149,813
Number
%
Number
%
886,224 920,166 925,860 792,606 612,682
415,917 426,200 460,292 432,460 375,194
46.93⁎ 46.32 49.72 54.56 61.24
468,868 483,615 454,603 345,939 225,407
52.91 52.56 49.10 43.65 36.79
Lost data 12,260. ⁎ Corrected standardized residuals b 1.96 in absolute terms.
3.2.5. Type of contract associated with injured workers It was also demonstrated that the stability of employment has a clear effect on the duration of absenteeism (Askildsen et al., 2005). In our study, the type of injured workers' contract was analyzed over the years 2005–2009 in order to observe whether it was affected in times of recession. Table 13 confirms that, throughout the crisis years, there were considerably fewer injured workers with temporary contracts while injured workers with full-time contracts increased. It appears that workers with fixed-term contracts were the first to be laid off in times of economic recession, while workers with permanent contracts were retained. This fact might have some influence on the reduction of the seriousness index in times of crisis. In summary, we explain the reduction in the incidence index in times of economic crisis by the greater age and length of service of the injured workers. Moreover, the rise in the index of injuries suffered by women might have some influence regardless of any increase in the index of injuries suffered by men. It may also be explained because injury rates were reduced with greater intensity in small enterprises, characterized by higher injury indices and, finally, by the significant reduction in injury rates among less stable workers. 4. Discussion The current economic crisis in Spain has provoked a decline in occupational injury rates. Other studies have investigated injuries at times of economic slow-downs as well as injury severity. However, this work analyzed possible factors that provoked a reduction in occupational injury rates in times of economic crisis. In the Introduction, it was seen that various authors highlighted how occupational injuries increase in times of economic growth and decline in times of recession; in other words, injury rates vary according to economic fluctuations. Our study confirms that the number of injuries was affected by the economic crisis. In fact, the year 2007, in which current economic crisis began in Spain, acted as an inflection point for occupational injury rates. In the years leading up to the crisis, considered years of economic expansion, an increase in the number of injuries was noted and as from 2008, the tendency changed dramatically and injuries on the whole started to descend. This phenomenon is not mirrored in the major injuries. Major injuries have always fallen since 2001, but the number drops further from the beginning of the crisis. In this study, it was confirmed that the seriousness index was also affected by the economic crisis. In fact, since 2005, the seriousness index fell progressively, however, as from 2007 up until 2009, this fall intensified considerably. The economic crisis has affected injury rates to a greater extent in the construction and in industry sectors in Spain, but the reduction of injuries observed in the construction sector was especially intense. The main conclusion is that the economic crisis in Spain has affected occupational injury rates. In effect, during the economic crisis, the number of minor and major injuries declined. Curiously, the probabilities of
a. The average age of the injured workers increases. Considering that, it has also been shown that younger workers suffer a higher incidence index in times of economic crisis; this could be a reason for the reduction in the incidence index. b. In addition, the average length of service of injured workers has considerably increased in times of crisis. c. Injury rates for men with respect to women fell in times of crisis; hence this may also be a cause for the reduction in the injury and serious incident indices. d. The reduction in the injury rates of small enterprises and the important reduction of injury rates among less experienced workers with less employment stability might have been the reason for the sharp reduction recorded in the number of major injuries per 100,000 workers. In conclusion, we wish to point out that economic crises appear to provoke a sort of “natural selection” in the labor market and only the best adapted tend to remain (older workers, with more experience, a higher percentage of women, more workers in larger companies and permanent contracts), all of which means that the probability of workers having an injury is considerably reduced. 4.1. Limitations Fatal injury rates have only been included in the study by sector; these injuries have not been included for the rest of the variables because no significant results were observed, perhaps because of the reduced number of these injuries in the sample under analysis (0.10%) in comparison with total injuries. This study do not examine the causes of variations in the number of accidents and their rates, only studied the variation in the number and rates during crisis period according to different criteria and types of accidents. Acknowledgments Our thanks to the Subdirección General de Estadísticas del Ministerio de Trabajo e Inmigración [General Statistics Sub-Directorate of the Ministry of Employment and Immigration] for authorizing access to the anonymous data on workplace injuries, and to the Consejería de Economía y Empleo de la Junta de Castilla y León [Ministry of Economy and Employment of the Junta of Castile and Leon] for the training program through practicum in the field of technological research and innovation for university graduates. References Álvarez, J. A. (2008). La Banca Española Ante La Actual Crisis Financiera. Estabilidad Financiera, 15, 21–38. Asfaw, A., Pana-Cryan, R., & Rosa, R. (2011). The business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries: Evidence for the U.S.A. Journal of Safety Research, 42(1), 1–8. Askildsen, J. E., Bratberg, E., & Nilsen, O. A. (2005). Unemployment, labor force composition and sickness absence: A panel data study. Health Economics, 14(11), 1087–1101. Boone, J., Van Ours, J. C., & Research, C.f.E.P. (2002). Cyclical fluctuations in workplace injuries: Centre for Economic Policy Research. IZA discussion paper. Chau, N., Wild, P., Dehaene, D., Benamghar, L., Mur, J. M., & Touron, C. (2010). Roles of age, length of service and job in work-related injury: A prospective study of 446 120 person-years in railway workers. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 67(3), 147–153. Davies, R., Jones, P., & Nunez, I. (2009). The impact of the business cycle on occupational injuries in the UK. Social Science & Medicine, 69(2), 178–182. EU-OSHA (2011). European Agency for Safety and Health at Work “Risks and trends in the safety and health of women at work”. https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/ reports/new-risks-trends-osh-women
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