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System and Individual Outcomes and Their Predictors in Services and Support for People with IDD Renata Tichá, Amy Hewitt, Derek Nord, and Sherri Larson
Abstract The growth and advancement of community-based services for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) have resulted in vast changes in the long-term services and support landscape as well as in expected outcomes of service systems for service recipients. Investments in IDD research have been made to provide a deeper understanding of tbese outcomes and to explain them. This article summarizes outcomes and their predictors through systems and individual lenses by examining the research and findings of the Administration on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities' Data Projects of National Significance that address residential services, employment services, costs of services, and individual outcomes. The article also discusses challenges and debates associated with outcome-related research and poses future research questions. Key Words:
Projects of National Significance; outcomes; predictors
The 2012 Research and Training Center on Community Living State-of-the-Science Conference (SOSC) focused on outcomes people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) experience in their lives in areas such as living arrangements (from institutions to one's own home), employment (from day habilitation to meaningful work contributions), social inclusion, self-determination, and health. People with IDD want to live in and participate fully in their communities; choose the supports they need and want; exercise control in how supports are provided; have stable, skilled support providers when needed; have satisfying lives and valued social roles; and be safe and have the assistance they need to manage life's risks and be free from exploitation (The Arc, 2013). However, the extent to which individuals experience these desired outcomes varies depending on person-referenced characteristics, such as age or level of ID, as well as family/ community-related factors , including participating in community activities. Additionally, systemsreferenced characteristics, such as type of services, and global influences (e.g., the state or region in which the person lives), which affect the funding source for supports and policies guiding supports in the system and programs through which the person
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is supported, also influence individual outcomes and quality of life. In this paper, the term and concept of ¡eve! of ID is used, rather than support needs because level of ID is referred to most often as a variable available for analysis in large datasets discussed in this paper (i.e.. National Core Indicators [NCI]). While the World Health Organization and American Association on Intellectual and Developmental Disability definitions of intellectual disability focus on support need there is no congruence with variables in the data reviewed and presented in this paper. In an examination of factors related to improved quality of life and providing services and supports for people with IDD, there is often not an obvious connection between research findings and practices implemented in the field. A framework that provides such a connection can aid in implementing practices and policies that are evidence based. In their framework on quality of life, Shogren, Bradley, Gomez, Yaeger, and Schalock (2009), outline the relationship between public policy and the desired outcomes for people with IDD. Shogren et al. (2009) argued that policy and practice in the disability field have been shaped over time by various social factors, including socialpolitical movements, court rulings, and research
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findings, all of which lead to more policy and effective service interventions. In this model, public policy is defined as rules, regulations, statutes, and funding, while practice is defined as diagnosis, classification, design, and delivery of supports. Equally important, however, is whether the policies and practices are based on sound research evidence. Consequently, a focus on predictors of outcomes that enhance quality of life for people with IDD along with a comparison of results across different service delivery systems is critical. According to this framework, policies, practices, outcomes and their predictors can be further organized as (a) person-referenced (e.g., self-determination and rights), (b) family/community-related (e.g., family interactions), (c) systems-referenced (e.g., types of services provided), and (d) global influences, such as living in a particular region or state (Shogren et al., 2009). A framework such as the one outlined by Shogren et al. (2009) provides a helpful organizer not only of studied variables related to outcomes for people with IDD but also of the level at which policy is being implemented and is impacting its recipients. This paper will summarize the content provided at the SOSC identifying and discussing what is known about common predictors of desired outcomes for people with IDD in the context of state IDD service systems. It will also highlight areas that need continued debate, and recommendations for future research in this area will be made. One of the challenges of this field is to be able to integrate the findings of the Projects of National Significance (PNS) and related studies to effectively inform policy makers, advocates and other stakeholders. This paper reflects, to an extent, the complexity of translating data findings to be able to make comparisons between the projects. One example of this challenge are variables, such as living arrangements, that are treated as outcomes in the Residential Information Systems Project (RISP), but as an important predictor of individual outcomes in the NCI project. This paper provides a unique opportunity to highlight the focus of administration on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (AIDD) PNS, including the outcomes and their predictors these projects have found to make a difference in the lives of people with IDD. The outcomes of interest are residential services, employment services, costs of services, and individual outcomes, such as choice
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making, loneliness, and health. The PNS described here utilize different approaches to handling and analyzing their data. Residential services, employment services, and costs of services are outcomes reported in a descriptive way by RISP at the University of Minnesota (http://rtc2.umn.edu/risp/ main/); State of the States in Developmental Disabilities Project at the University of Colorado, Boulder (http://www.stateofthestates.org/); and Access to Integrated Employment: National Data Collection on Day and Employment Services for Citizens with Developmental Disabilities at the University of Massachusetts, Boston (http://www. Statedata.info/). The NCI project, a collaborative effort between the National Association of State Directors of Developmental Disabilities Services (NASDDDS) and the Human Services Research Institute (HSRI), also funded by AIDD as a PNS, collects data on individual outcomes (http://www. nationalcoreindicators.org/). In addition. University of Minnesota's RRTC partnered with NASDDDS and HSRI to conduct inferential analysis of the data to examine relationships between person-referenced, family/community-related, systems-referenced and global predictors, and individual outcomes for people with IDD through a project funded by the National Institute on Disability Rehabilitation Research. It is not the intent of this paper to provide comprehensive overviews of the PNS, but rather to highlight the outcomes related to residential services, employment services, costs of services, and individual outcomes, such as choice making, loneliness, and health. The NCI project results are described here in more detail because they provide outcome data that are related to the topics of the SOSC and because the authors had a key role in the inferential analyses of the NCI data.
What We Know About Outcomes System Costs and Outcomes—Data PNS Studies of system level outcomes provide important contextual information to support other types of research. The AIDD Data PNS collect longitudinal systems change data that identify the places in which people live (RISP at the University of Minnesota), Medicaid and other expenditures related to IDD services (State of the States in Developmental Disabilities Project at the University of Colorado, Boulder), and where people work or spend their day (Access to Integrated Employment: National Data
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Collection on Day and Employment Services for Citizens with Developmental Disabilities at the University of Massachusetts, Boston). The following sections present findings on outcomes from these three projects as related to residential services, employment services, and costs of services. Where people with IDD live. There has been a dramatic change in where people with IDD live in the United States since deinstitutionalization began in the late 1970s. This shift has been guided by advocacy efforts and policy. Figure 1 shows the pattern of de-institutionalization in the United States. This rapid shift from institutional to community living was due to the availability of funding through the Medicaid Home and Community Based Services (HCBS) program in the early 1990s. Institutional living represented most often a state-operated facility with 16 or more residents. Community living, in contrast, includes non—stateoperated small group residential settings, living with family, or living independently with some supports. As a result, between 1982 and 2011, the number of Medicaid HCBS recipients with IDD increased from 1,381 to 616,491. A related change is the rapid growth in HCBS to support persons with IDD who live with family. In 1994, 29,806 HCBS recipients lived with family members; in 2011 the total had increased to 314,685. Nationally, an estimated 51% of all people with IDD receiving long-term services and support lived in the home of a family member, with 91,511 living in their own home (Larson et al., 2013).
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Opportunities to expand community supports have led to significant increases in the number, variety, and flexibility of living options. Although there have been many criticisms of the Medicaid "institutional bias," the overwhelming majority of Medicaid-funded services and supports are provided in the community. For persons with IDD, national trends are encouraging, but great disparities still exist between states in the quantity and quality of community supports. Although 11 states have closed all of their large institutions, and nationally only 12.2% of all Medicaid ICE/DD and HCBS recipients lived in a facility with 16 or more people, in 2010, 64% of recipients in Mississippi lived in places with 16 or more people (Larson et al., 2013). Figure 2 shows recent increases in people with IDD in state IDD systems who receive support while living in a home they own or lease or with family members. An examination of the state-level data reveals dramatic differences in access to community supports by state (see Table 1). State-by-state differences in the size of places people with IDD live often explains significant proportion of variability in outcomes experienced by people with IDD. Employment outcomes and services. In its interpretation of the Olmstead decision and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act, the U.S. Department of Justice (2013) stated that all people with IDD, including transition-age youth, should be provided the opportunity to work, and rather than be marginalized citizens, be fully embraced by their
250,000
2005
2010
2011
Figure I. Average daily population with IDD in large state-operated IDD and psychiatric facilities 1950 to 2011 (Source, RISP: Larson et al., 2013).
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1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
65.006 BFamily Ell-3-t-Host Foster
325.650
86,694
90,597
451,677
104,386 503,641
86.563
576,163 84,423
87,081
92,550
105,965
101,423 105,290
56,572 I16+,NH, Psych
107,865
94,692
Figure 2. Changes in living arrangements for people with IDD since 1998 (Source, RISP; Larson et al, 2013).
community. This is supported by research that suggests participating in employment needs to begin early, by providing youth in transition with work experiences in school and immediately following; young people with IDD are more likely to be employed later in life (Carter, Austin, &. Trainor, 2011 ). Not only do these experiences lead to jobs in the community, they tend to pay more (Cimera, 2011). Yet, while the majority of people with IDD seek economic independence and employment (Migliore et al, 2007), policies and investments in employment systems face serious challenges in successfully supporting them to obtain inclusive work. Recent system outcome statistics highlight these challenges, where only 26% of young adults with IDD are employed after high school (Carter et al, 2011). In addition, as the PNS data point out using different data sources, adult employment system outcomes also vary. Using Rehabilitation Service Administration case closure data, it was found that 51% of people
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with ID who receive employment services and exit state VR programs are employed. The PNS also implements The National Survey of State Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Agencies' Day and Employment Services Survey across state developmental disability agencies, which served as a mechanism to capture trends in day and employment service from FY1988 to FY2011. This national survey found that of the 26 states that could report employment outcomes, 27.5% of people receiving day and employment services from state developmental disability agencies were employed in integrated settings (Butterworth et al., 2013). From 1988 to 2011, the number of people with IDD receiving day and employment services from state developmental disability agencies nearly doubled from 287,860 to 570,406. As seen on Figure 3, despite the growth in service use, the percentage of people receiving integrated employment services remained stagnant in recent years
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Table 1 Estimated Size of Residential Settings for Persons with JDD on June 30,
Percentage in settings with
Estimated State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas Califomia Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota
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Settings
Residents
1,130 937 2,071 1,414 31,867 4,450 2,937 372 599 7,341 3,517 637 2,333 4,712 3,678 2,076 1,176 2,232 2,925 1,525 3,695 6,433 9,738 4,596 378 1,926 1,012 2,490 1,029 1,414 2,386 2,503 15,450 3,676 1,370 16,449 1,622 2,081 11,336 1,024 927 1,147
3,678 1,201 4,282 3,782 56,522 5,395 6,901 1,043 1,341 15,938 6,192 1,018 4,459 21,946 8,777 9,083 4,609 4,944 7,212 2,802 7,581 12,059 20,614 14,599 3,224 7,049 1,875 4,053 1,802 1,888 12,051 3,462 46,775 8,624 2,154 25,699 4,366 6,395 24,733 2,212 4,841 2,454
Residents per setting
1-15 residents
1-6 residents
3.3 1.3 2.1 2.7 1.8 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.9 4.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 3.2 8.5 3.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.3 5.1 1.4 3.0 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.2 5.2 2.1
97 100 97 60 93 99 90 87 100 82 91 100 90 77 96 81 93 93 80 99 98 94 95 97 35 90 97 90 92 99 67 100 94 79 93 82 75 95 86 98 84 92
72 100 96 37 91 97 85 86 98 74 91 99 58 36 68 70 90 93 78 95 95 84 85 93 14 73 73 88 92 97 58 97 54 74 70 71 65 92 79 91 66 69
1-3 residents 59 88 70 35 58 77 46 41 62 37 69 61 54 16 49 56 39 91 33 71 73 43 45 32 11 56 61 74 64 . 93 26 93 28 41 59 61 46 61 60 50 23 51
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Table 1 Continued Estimated State Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Estimated U.S. total
Percentajgs in settings with
Settings
Residents
Residents per setting
1-15 residents
1-6 residents
1-3 residents
2,276 8,862 1,847 1,402 2,680 3,041 1,083 7,790 427 200,019
6,056 29,009 3,379 1,638 7,973 7,044 1,854 12,723 1,286 460,597
2.7 3.3 1.8 1.2 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.6 3.0 2.3
86 84 78 100 67 85 97 94 94 88
74 82 73 100 60 83 70 78 86 75
64 52 63 95 44 53 61 56 51 49
table includes estimates for states with incomplete reports. (Source, RISP; Larson et al, 2013).
(Institute for Community Inclusion, 2013). The use of integrated employment services varies greatly by state, ranging from 88% of people with IDD in Washington to 5% in Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas (Butterworth et al., 2013). Costs of services and supports. In FY2011, a total of $56.65 billion was spent in IDD services, 61% of which were paid for by way of federal revenue sources. An increasingly large funding source is Medicaid HCBS Waivers. The enrollment and expenditures related to HCBS Waivers increased rapidly, firom $1.14 billion for 63,174 enroUees in Pf 1992 to $18.3 billion for 627,270
;rce
30% 25% e 20% 15% PL, 10% 5% 0%
enroUees in FY2011. Table 2 shows the HCBS funding across the nation averages $90 per capita, with wide variability from state-to-state, ranging from $284 per capita in New York to $14 per capita in Mississippi. Great disparity is also found in relation to investments in family support and supported living. A present, states average 20% of their IDD spending to these services. The table also highlights the progress made across the nation in community supports, where 80% of all IDD services are in the community settings with six or fewer people with IDD (Braddock et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2013c, 2013d).
24% 25% 000/ 20% H 21% 21% 21% 20% 19% 19% 170/ - | MM "*"- » ^B - —1 1-)Q/ ^ / 0 — ^ - | - | - - | - | 1988 1990 1993 1996 1999 2001 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
1 • -m-•-m--•--i- -H- -i-|-
-|-f
Jt -fJ_ , • , • , , • , • ,-|--§-
-f
Figure 3. Percentage of people in day and employment services receiving integrated employment supports across the nation (Institute for Community Inclusion, 2013).
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Table 2 ÍDD Spending and Services across the United States {Source: Braddock et al., 2013a)
State
HCBS per capita spending"^
% of total IDD spending for family support and supported living*
% of total IDD spending on community services with six or fewer people*^'
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee
$54 $156 $100 $53 $51 $65 $158 $99 $229 $45 $36 $74 $42 $44 $100 $110 $108 $74 $115 $209 $88 $100 $89 $224 $14 $70 $75 $107 $27 $141 $63 $133 $284 $53 $169 $102 $73 $150 $126 $207 $50 $110 $92
3 56 47 30 20 12 9 1 3 29 14 27 15 7 35 31 11 11 49 9 15 6 29 24 10 40 20 9 53 6 7 55 9 25 26 30 49 19 5 17 16 6 43
84 99 96 64 89 92 82 82 98 76 89 100 85 50 77 63 88 71 70 94 92 90 94 95 23 80 84 77 92 98 60 96 81 73 70 76 79 99 79 96 72 75 78
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Table 2 Continued
State
HCBS per capita spending^
Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming United States
$35 $48
$220 $59
$82 $135 $143
/ •
$170 $90
.., 1
% of total IDD spending for family support and supported living*
% of total IDD spending on community services with six or fewer people*^
32 8 13 9 53 42 13 22
66 74 100 71 83 85 81 81 80
20
capita denotes, per citizen of the general population. ^Spending for family support (children and adults in the family home) and supported living (adults in their own home) is divided by total IDD spending in each state. ^Spending for community services in the states is provided by the HCBS Waiver in addition to other state and local govemment funding. Community services consists of a wide range of residential supports, supported living, supported employment, family supports, case management, service coordination, transportation, and other supports. Total IDD spending also includes public and private residential facilities serving 16 or more persons per setting, including ICF/ID spending (but excluding nursing facility spending) ^Refers to residence, family support, supported employment, supported living, and related community day and support programs.
Individual Outcomes and Their Predictors—NCI NCI. The NCI program is another PNS funded by AIDD (Bradley & Moseley, 2007). The NCI are standard measurement tools and processes used in 36 states (this number is expected to grow to 45 by 2014) to assess multiple outcomes of services provided to people with IDD. Unlike the other PNS, this project gathers data about and from individual service users and as necessary their legal representatives related to individual service user outcomes. The NCI-Adult Consumer Survey (NCI-ACS) was developed to measure state IDD agency performance across an array of individual, family, and systems outcomes with a goal of providing actionable information to state agency policymakers, program administrators, researchers, families, and other stakeholders to be used to benchmark progress, track performance over time, and compare outcomes across states. NCI does not address every possible element of system-wide performance. The indicators are intended to work in tandem with other performance tracking and monitoring systems that states operate. However, it
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is important to note that because of the nature of the random sampling and data collection used in the NCI program, it is not possible to follow over time the same subjects, and thus there is no capacity to longitudinally monitor individual outcomes. One key criterion for the selection of NCI measures was and continues to be the extent to which each indicator makes meaningful comparisons between states possible. Comparability is accomplished through the use of common data collection protocols and through common definitions of the particular phenomenon and data source addressed by the indicator. The indicators represented by survey items are divided into several domains including: health, employment, living situation, safety, social relationships, satisfaction with services, self-direction, inclusion, choices, rights and service access. The indicators have remained consistent over the last several years and thus can be used to analyze system-level trends over time. The NCI-ACS currently generates critical information on over 12,236 randomly selected people with IDD receiving publicly supported
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services. The NCI-ACS is used to interview individuals receiving services and other key informants and consists of three major sections. The Background Section collects demographic, diagnostic, functional, behavioral, medical, and earnings data from individual records and is usually completed by program administrators and case managers. Section I contains subjective questions and can be completed only by interviewing the service recipient (proxies are not allowed). Section II consists of questions that are objective and may be answered by the service recipient or someone who knows the person well (a proxy). Ten studies based on the NCI-ACS dataset have been published in peer-reviewed journals since 2008 on multiple outcomes. Table 3 provides key information about these studies and the outcomes that were studied in each. Based on the framework of Shogren et al. (2009), 8 of the 10 studies have included similar person-referenced predictors or covariates, seven have included a systems-referenced predictor (i.e. type of living arrangement), while four have included a global variable (i.e., state in which the person with IDD lives). Table 4 serves as an organizer of examined predictors of individual outcom.es. Ordinary least squares or ordinal or logistic regressions were used to assess the impact of predictors, as a function of the type of an outcome
variable (study on overweight and obesity by Stancliffe et al., 2011, reported descriptive results only). Person-referenced characteristics (level of ID, age, mobility, and self-report ability to communicates verbally) accounted for significant differences in studies with outcomes of everyday and support-related choice making (Lakin et al., 2008a; Tichá et al., 2012), overweight and being diagnosed with Down syndrome (Stancliffe et al, 2012), preventative health care (Bershadsky et al., 2012), being diagnosed with autism and having relationships and being diagnosed with autism and other disabilities (Hewitt et al, 2012), choice of living arrangement (Stancliffe et al., 2011a), obesity and being overweight (Stancliffe et al., 2011b), and variations in expenditures for individuals with different characteristics and service needs (Lakin at al., 2008b). Additional person-referenced variables such as absence of problem behavior (Tichá et al., 2012) or absence of psychiatric diagnosis (Lakin et al., 2008a) were also significant predictors of everyday choice making. Type of living arrangement (systems-referenced predictor), even though not conceptualized consistently in all 10 studies, was a significant predictor in seven studies of the following outcomes: everyday and support-related choice making, preventative health care, choice of living arrangement, obesity and being overweight, and
Table 3 Studies Published in Peer-Reviewed Journals Based on the NCI Adult Consumer Survey Since 2008
Date
Journal*
Topic
Tichá et al. Stancliffe et al.
2012 2012
IDD JARID
Bershadsky et al. Hewitt, et al. Stancliffe, Lakin, Larson, Engler, Taub, et al. Stancliffe, Lakin, Larson, Engler, Bershadsky, et al. Stancliffe et al. Stancliffe et al. Lakin et al. Lakin et al.
2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2009 2008 2008
PHR RSAD JIDR AJIDD AAC IDD AJMR IDD
Choice making Down syndrome and overweight Preventative health care Autism Living arrangements Obesity AAC Satisfaction Choice making Expenditures
Authors^
^Full citations of the studies are included in the reference list. *IDD, Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities; JARID; PHR, Public Health Reports; RSAD, Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders; JIDR, Journal on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities; AJIDD, American Journal on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities; AAC, Augmentative and Alternative Gommunication; AJMR, American Journal of Mental Retardation.
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expenditures. The study on people with Down syndrome and being overweight included type of living arrangement as a predictor hut found no significant differences. Table 5 provides a summary of results of the effect of different types of living arrangement on each studied outcome using the NCI dataset. Most of the studies included a small agency residential setting with 1-15 people as the referent for comparison purposes. The NCI studies examined here have defined the type of living arrangement differently. In one study (Tichá et al. 2012) agency setting has been further categorized by number of individuals with IDD living there. Other studies (e.g., Stanclifïe, Lakin, Larson, Engler, Bershadsky, et al, 2011 ) have differentiated only between agency settings with 1-15 people and institutions (typically 164- people). Yet other studies grouped all congregate/agency-operated living arrangements into one category (e.g., Lakin et al., 2008). Individuals living in their own home (that they themselves owned or rented) were significantly more likely, for example, to make everyday choices than individuals living in any other type of residential setting. The only difference in making everyday choice that was not significant was between an individual living in a small agency residential setting with one to three people and living with own and host family (Tichá at al., 2012) or host family only (Lakin et al, 2008). A study by Bershadsky et al. (2012) on preventative health care for people with IDD used living with family as a referent and found that individuals living in agency-operated settings (especially those serving 16 or more people) were more likely to receive preventative health care than those living with their family. Four NCI studies examining differences in outcomes by state reported that state (global predictor) explained a significant proportion of variability over and above person-referenced and systems-referenced effects in what everyday and support-related choice they made, what type of preventative health care they received, and how much was spent on their services. Table 4 further illustrates which combinations of predictors and outcomes have been examined in previous NCI studies and of those that have been examined, which have demonstrated significant relationships. For example. Table 4 shows that level of ID has been included as a predictor in all but one of the previous studies and has been found significant in all but one (wellbeing and satisfaction
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outcome) of the studies that included it. Table 4 also helps to organize NCI variables (predictors) into levels at which outcomes relate to policy as outlined by Shogren et al. (2009). Table 6 outlines predictors at the levels in the framework of Shogren et al. (2009) that have been significant in previous NCI studies. Person-referenced characteristics that have been consistent predictors of outcomes for people with IDD include: level of ID, age, mobility, mode of communication, challenging behavior, and psychiatric diagnosis. Systems-referenced predictor has been the type of living arrangement and the global domain predictor has been state. As illustrated in Tables 4 and 6, although important work has been accomplished to identify common predictors of selected individual outcomes for people with IDD, there are numerous areas that remain largely unexplored. Table 7 provides an organizer of these areas in the person-referenced characteristics, family/community related, systemsreferenced, and global domain as outlined by Shogren et al. (2009).
Challenges, Debates, and Unresolved Issues The PNS cited in this paper, including RISP; State of the States in Developmental Disabilities Project; Access to Integrated Employment project; and the NCI, provide a wealth of information about where people live, work and about their outcomes related to community living, self-determination, health, etc. and the costs of these services and supports. These projects are administered and managed by separate institutes and cover their own area of focus utilizing their particular expertise. Large datasets that are the products of these projects (published yearly or every other year) have an important descriptive value and provide interesting contextual information to states about services and support for people with IDD through a systems lens. The NCI datasets with its variety of outcomes measured about individuals with IDD also provide an opportunity for inferential analysis that evaluate significant differences between subgroups of participants on a variety of outcomes and establish significant relationships between predictors and outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to provide an explicit organizational framework for moving forward in research and policy making as efficiently as possible not only by highlighting the already-made contributions but also by outlining the areas of need
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Table 4 The Effects of Different types of Predictors on National Core Indicator Outcomes for People with IDD
Predictors/outcomes
Everyday Everyday choice choice
Supportrelated choice
Support- Down synrelated drome and choice overweight
Preventative health care
Person-referenced Level of ID (milder) Age (older) Gender (female) Ethnicity Mobility (walks) Problem behavior (none) Mental health diagnosis (none) Autism Down syndrome Vision or hearing impairment Physical disability (none) Cerebral palsy (none) Alzheimer's Self-report Communicates (verbally) Physically active Better health
A A
A n.s
n.s
n.s
X A A A
X A n.s
A
n.s X n.s X X X
n.s X n.s X X X
A A
A X X
A
A
V
n.s n.s X n.s n.s n.s n.s X n.s X X X
n.s n.s X
V A X
A A A
V
A A
A
X X X
A A n.s X A
V
n.s n.s X X X X X X X n.s X
X
A
sig
n.s
sig
sig 6 2,398 46%
X 25 12,381 11%
sig 20 11,569 18%
n.s X n.s X X X
X X
n.s
X X
X X n.s
sig
sig
sig
sig 19 8,892 44%
sig 6 2,398 50%
sig 19 8,892 31%
A X X
A n.s X X
Systems-referenced Type of living arrangement Global domain State Number of states Number of participants Total variability explained
Note. A = significant predictor of an increase in outcome; V ~ significant predictor of a decrease in outcome; sig = significant; n.s. = not significant; X = not examined; refer to Table 5 for more detailed information about the effect of type of living arrangement; type of living arrangement and state were dummy coded. for further work focused on person-referenced characteristics, family/community-related variables, systems-referenced factors, and global factors (Shogren et al., 2009) that affect lives of people with IDD. The following section provides a summary of some of the challenges the PNS projects face to make the information they generate of the highest quality and accessible to its readers and users. Dissemination. Civen the wealth of information generated by the PNS, there is a challenge to effectively disseminate the project findings to stakeholders who use them to create, update, and implement policies for people with IDD. This
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challenge includes (a) presentation of findings in ways that they can be easily interpreted and understood by varied target audiences including advocates, practitioners, and policy makers, (b) presence in easily accessible publications and other outlets, and (c) a possibility to easily manipulate the data as needed by the user. The primary means of dissemination of the PNS information are through technical reports and websites. Some of the PNS use social media as a dissemination tool, and one project provides a summary report specifically for self-advocates. When results of PNS are published in peerreviewed journals that require subscription or in
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Table 4 Extended
Autism and Autism other and disability relationships
Choice of where to live
Choice of whom to live with
A
n.s X
A A A X X X A n.s X n.s n.s n.s X
A
A
n.s
X X
n.s n.s n.s
A X X
X X X X X X X X
A
V
sig
sig
Slg
n.s
sig
sig
X 26 6,778 31%
X
X
sig
20 8,911 NA
X 25 12,766 12%
X
26 6,778 26%
6 1,885 7%
4 1,421 56%
A A A
n.s n.s
X X X X
X X X X
X X X A
V
V
X X X X X
X X X X
n.s X n.s
X X X X
X X X X
X
X
X 25 12,382 6%
X 25 12,382 16%
A
publications of limited circulation or through dense technical reports, accessibility by both the professional and consumer community to these findings is restricted. The less accessible these publications are to the community, the less understanding, awareness, and dialogue are generated between policy and the most current findings. The PNS system is expanding its reach by adapting the dissemination to respond to the wider audience needs, through briefs, social media, and web-based report building features to facilitate more effective advocacy. Accessibility and ease of results interpretation can also be enhanced by the use of data display technologies (e.g.. Tableau software, Spotfire, and Domo). Such methods enable the user to display figures and trends customized to their needs and
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Loneliness
Wellbeing and satisfaction Expenditures
X n.s X X X X X X X X X X X X n.s X X
A A A
X
Overweight or obesity
A X
A n.s X X X X A
X X n.s A n.s X X X X X X X X
V A
n.s X
V n.s
A A X n.s
X X X X X X
interests, while allowing for users to drill down to answer research questions of their own. Psychometric characteristics of measures. To collect data of high quality and relevant to the time, place, and situation to people with IDD and their support providers, it is necessary to work with data collection instruments that have good psychometric properties, including interobserver reliability, internal consistency, differential item functioning, social, content and construct validity, and sensitivity to change over time. It can be challenging to keep revising data collection instruments because such changes affect the ability to make trend comparisons. Instrumentation development and refinement are, however, an important aspect of an efficient and effective study of the impact of
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System and Individual Outcomes and Their Predictors in Services and Support for People with IDD Renata Tichá, Amy Hewitt, Derek Nord, and Sherri Larson
Abstract The growth and advancement of community-based services for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) have resulted in vast changes in the long-term services and support landscape as well as in expected outcomes of service systems for service recipients. Investments in IDD research have been made to provide a deeper understanding of tbese outcomes and to explain them. This article summarizes outcomes and their predictors through systems and individual lenses by examining the research and findings of the Administration on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities' Data Projects of National Significance that address residential services, employment services, costs of services, and individual outcomes. The article also discusses challenges and debates associated with outcome-related research and poses future research questions. Key Words:
Projects of National Significance; outcomes; predictors
The 2012 Research and Training Center on Community Living State-of-the-Science Conference (SOSC) focused on outcomes people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) experience in their lives in areas such as living arrangements (from institutions to one's own home), employment (from day habilitation to meaningful work contributions), social inclusion, self-determination, and health. People with IDD want to live in and participate fully in their communities; choose the supports they need and want; exercise control in how supports are provided; have stable, skilled support providers when needed; have satisfying lives and valued social roles; and be safe and have the assistance they need to manage life's risks and be free from exploitation (The Arc, 2013). However, the extent to which individuals experience these desired outcomes varies depending on person-referenced characteristics, such as age or level of ID, as well as family/ community-related factors , including participating in community activities. Additionally, systemsreferenced characteristics, such as type of services, and global influences (e.g., the state or region in which the person lives), which affect the funding source for supports and policies guiding supports in the system and programs through which the person
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is supported, also influence individual outcomes and quality of life. In this paper, the term and concept of ¡eve! of ID is used, rather than support needs because level of ID is referred to most often as a variable available for analysis in large datasets discussed in this paper (i.e.. National Core Indicators [NCI]). While the World Health Organization and American Association on Intellectual and Developmental Disability definitions of intellectual disability focus on support need there is no congruence with variables in the data reviewed and presented in this paper. In an examination of factors related to improved quality of life and providing services and supports for people with IDD, there is often not an obvious connection between research findings and practices implemented in the field. A framework that provides such a connection can aid in implementing practices and policies that are evidence based. In their framework on quality of life, Shogren, Bradley, Gomez, Yaeger, and Schalock (2009), outline the relationship between public policy and the desired outcomes for people with IDD. Shogren et al. (2009) argued that policy and practice in the disability field have been shaped over time by various social factors, including socialpolitical movements, court rulings, and research
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findings, all of which lead to more policy and effective service interventions. In this model, public policy is defined as rules, regulations, statutes, and funding, while practice is defined as diagnosis, classification, design, and delivery of supports. Equally important, however, is whether the policies and practices are based on sound research evidence. Consequently, a focus on predictors of outcomes that enhance quality of life for people with IDD along with a comparison of results across different service delivery systems is critical. According to this framework, policies, practices, outcomes and their predictors can be further organized as (a) person-referenced (e.g., self-determination and rights), (b) family/community-related (e.g., family interactions), (c) systems-referenced (e.g., types of services provided), and (d) global influences, such as living in a particular region or state (Shogren et al., 2009). A framework such as the one outlined by Shogren et al. (2009) provides a helpful organizer not only of studied variables related to outcomes for people with IDD but also of the level at which policy is being implemented and is impacting its recipients. This paper will summarize the content provided at the SOSC identifying and discussing what is known about common predictors of desired outcomes for people with IDD in the context of state IDD service systems. It will also highlight areas that need continued debate, and recommendations for future research in this area will be made. One of the challenges of this field is to be able to integrate the findings of the Projects of National Significance (PNS) and related studies to effectively inform policy makers, advocates and other stakeholders. This paper reflects, to an extent, the complexity of translating data findings to be able to make comparisons between the projects. One example of this challenge are variables, such as living arrangements, that are treated as outcomes in the Residential Information Systems Project (RISP), but as an important predictor of individual outcomes in the NCI project. This paper provides a unique opportunity to highlight the focus of administration on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (AIDD) PNS, including the outcomes and their predictors these projects have found to make a difference in the lives of people with IDD. The outcomes of interest are residential services, employment services, costs of services, and individual outcomes, such as choice
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making, loneliness, and health. The PNS described here utilize different approaches to handling and analyzing their data. Residential services, employment services, and costs of services are outcomes reported in a descriptive way by RISP at the University of Minnesota (http://rtc2.umn.edu/risp/ main/); State of the States in Developmental Disabilities Project at the University of Colorado, Boulder (http://www.stateofthestates.org/); and Access to Integrated Employment: National Data Collection on Day and Employment Services for Citizens with Developmental Disabilities at the University of Massachusetts, Boston (http://www. Statedata.info/). The NCI project, a collaborative effort between the National Association of State Directors of Developmental Disabilities Services (NASDDDS) and the Human Services Research Institute (HSRI), also funded by AIDD as a PNS, collects data on individual outcomes (http://www. nationalcoreindicators.org/). In addition. University of Minnesota's RRTC partnered with NASDDDS and HSRI to conduct inferential analysis of the data to examine relationships between person-referenced, family/community-related, systems-referenced and global predictors, and individual outcomes for people with IDD through a project funded by the National Institute on Disability Rehabilitation Research. It is not the intent of this paper to provide comprehensive overviews of the PNS, but rather to highlight the outcomes related to residential services, employment services, costs of services, and individual outcomes, such as choice making, loneliness, and health. The NCI project results are described here in more detail because they provide outcome data that are related to the topics of the SOSC and because the authors had a key role in the inferential analyses of the NCI data.
What We Know About Outcomes System Costs and Outcomes—Data PNS Studies of system level outcomes provide important contextual information to support other types of research. The AIDD Data PNS collect longitudinal systems change data that identify the places in which people live (RISP at the University of Minnesota), Medicaid and other expenditures related to IDD services (State of the States in Developmental Disabilities Project at the University of Colorado, Boulder), and where people work or spend their day (Access to Integrated Employment: National Data
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Collection on Day and Employment Services for Citizens with Developmental Disabilities at the University of Massachusetts, Boston). The following sections present findings on outcomes from these three projects as related to residential services, employment services, and costs of services. Where people with IDD live. There has been a dramatic change in where people with IDD live in the United States since deinstitutionalization began in the late 1970s. This shift has been guided by advocacy efforts and policy. Figure 1 shows the pattern of de-institutionalization in the United States. This rapid shift from institutional to community living was due to the availability of funding through the Medicaid Home and Community Based Services (HCBS) program in the early 1990s. Institutional living represented most often a state-operated facility with 16 or more residents. Community living, in contrast, includes non—stateoperated small group residential settings, living with family, or living independently with some supports. As a result, between 1982 and 2011, the number of Medicaid HCBS recipients with IDD increased from 1,381 to 616,491. A related change is the rapid growth in HCBS to support persons with IDD who live with family. In 1994, 29,806 HCBS recipients lived with family members; in 2011 the total had increased to 314,685. Nationally, an estimated 51% of all people with IDD receiving long-term services and support lived in the home of a family member, with 91,511 living in their own home (Larson et al., 2013).
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Opportunities to expand community supports have led to significant increases in the number, variety, and flexibility of living options. Although there have been many criticisms of the Medicaid "institutional bias," the overwhelming majority of Medicaid-funded services and supports are provided in the community. For persons with IDD, national trends are encouraging, but great disparities still exist between states in the quantity and quality of community supports. Although 11 states have closed all of their large institutions, and nationally only 12.2% of all Medicaid ICE/DD and HCBS recipients lived in a facility with 16 or more people, in 2010, 64% of recipients in Mississippi lived in places with 16 or more people (Larson et al., 2013). Figure 2 shows recent increases in people with IDD in state IDD systems who receive support while living in a home they own or lease or with family members. An examination of the state-level data reveals dramatic differences in access to community supports by state (see Table 1). State-by-state differences in the size of places people with IDD live often explains significant proportion of variability in outcomes experienced by people with IDD. Employment outcomes and services. In its interpretation of the Olmstead decision and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act, the U.S. Department of Justice (2013) stated that all people with IDD, including transition-age youth, should be provided the opportunity to work, and rather than be marginalized citizens, be fully embraced by their
250,000
2005
2010
2011
Figure I. Average daily population with IDD in large state-operated IDD and psychiatric facilities 1950 to 2011 (Source, RISP: Larson et al., 2013).
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1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
65.006 BFamily Ell-3-t-Host Foster
325.650
86,694
90,597
451,677
104,386 503,641
86.563
576,163 84,423
87,081
92,550
105,965
101,423 105,290
56,572 I16+,NH, Psych
107,865
94,692
Figure 2. Changes in living arrangements for people with IDD since 1998 (Source, RISP; Larson et al, 2013).
community. This is supported by research that suggests participating in employment needs to begin early, by providing youth in transition with work experiences in school and immediately following; young people with IDD are more likely to be employed later in life (Carter, Austin, &. Trainor, 2011 ). Not only do these experiences lead to jobs in the community, they tend to pay more (Cimera, 2011). Yet, while the majority of people with IDD seek economic independence and employment (Migliore et al, 2007), policies and investments in employment systems face serious challenges in successfully supporting them to obtain inclusive work. Recent system outcome statistics highlight these challenges, where only 26% of young adults with IDD are employed after high school (Carter et al, 2011). In addition, as the PNS data point out using different data sources, adult employment system outcomes also vary. Using Rehabilitation Service Administration case closure data, it was found that 51% of people
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with ID who receive employment services and exit state VR programs are employed. The PNS also implements The National Survey of State Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Agencies' Day and Employment Services Survey across state developmental disability agencies, which served as a mechanism to capture trends in day and employment service from FY1988 to FY2011. This national survey found that of the 26 states that could report employment outcomes, 27.5% of people receiving day and employment services from state developmental disability agencies were employed in integrated settings (Butterworth et al., 2013). From 1988 to 2011, the number of people with IDD receiving day and employment services from state developmental disability agencies nearly doubled from 287,860 to 570,406. As seen on Figure 3, despite the growth in service use, the percentage of people receiving integrated employment services remained stagnant in recent years
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Table 1 Estimated Size of Residential Settings for Persons with JDD on June 30,
Percentage in settings with
Estimated State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas Califomia Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota
302
Settings
Residents
1,130 937 2,071 1,414 31,867 4,450 2,937 372 599 7,341 3,517 637 2,333 4,712 3,678 2,076 1,176 2,232 2,925 1,525 3,695 6,433 9,738 4,596 378 1,926 1,012 2,490 1,029 1,414 2,386 2,503 15,450 3,676 1,370 16,449 1,622 2,081 11,336 1,024 927 1,147
3,678 1,201 4,282 3,782 56,522 5,395 6,901 1,043 1,341 15,938 6,192 1,018 4,459 21,946 8,777 9,083 4,609 4,944 7,212 2,802 7,581 12,059 20,614 14,599 3,224 7,049 1,875 4,053 1,802 1,888 12,051 3,462 46,775 8,624 2,154 25,699 4,366 6,395 24,733 2,212 4,841 2,454
Residents per setting
1-15 residents
1-6 residents
3.3 1.3 2.1 2.7 1.8 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.9 4.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 3.2 8.5 3.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.3 5.1 1.4 3.0 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.2 5.2 2.1
97 100 97 60 93 99 90 87 100 82 91 100 90 77 96 81 93 93 80 99 98 94 95 97 35 90 97 90 92 99 67 100 94 79 93 82 75 95 86 98 84 92
72 100 96 37 91 97 85 86 98 74 91 99 58 36 68 70 90 93 78 95 95 84 85 93 14 73 73 88 92 97 58 97 54 74 70 71 65 92 79 91 66 69
1-3 residents 59 88 70 35 58 77 46 41 62 37 69 61 54 16 49 56 39 91 33 71 73 43 45 32 11 56 61 74 64 . 93 26 93 28 41 59 61 46 61 60 50 23 51
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Table 1 Continued Estimated State Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Estimated U.S. total
Percentajgs in settings with
Settings
Residents
Residents per setting
1-15 residents
1-6 residents
1-3 residents
2,276 8,862 1,847 1,402 2,680 3,041 1,083 7,790 427 200,019
6,056 29,009 3,379 1,638 7,973 7,044 1,854 12,723 1,286 460,597
2.7 3.3 1.8 1.2 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.6 3.0 2.3
86 84 78 100 67 85 97 94 94 88
74 82 73 100 60 83 70 78 86 75
64 52 63 95 44 53 61 56 51 49
table includes estimates for states with incomplete reports. (Source, RISP; Larson et al, 2013).
(Institute for Community Inclusion, 2013). The use of integrated employment services varies greatly by state, ranging from 88% of people with IDD in Washington to 5% in Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas (Butterworth et al., 2013). Costs of services and supports. In FY2011, a total of $56.65 billion was spent in IDD services, 61% of which were paid for by way of federal revenue sources. An increasingly large funding source is Medicaid HCBS Waivers. The enrollment and expenditures related to HCBS Waivers increased rapidly, firom $1.14 billion for 63,174 enroUees in Pf 1992 to $18.3 billion for 627,270
;rce
30% 25% e 20% 15% PL, 10% 5% 0%
enroUees in FY2011. Table 2 shows the HCBS funding across the nation averages $90 per capita, with wide variability from state-to-state, ranging from $284 per capita in New York to $14 per capita in Mississippi. Great disparity is also found in relation to investments in family support and supported living. A present, states average 20% of their IDD spending to these services. The table also highlights the progress made across the nation in community supports, where 80% of all IDD services are in the community settings with six or fewer people with IDD (Braddock et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2013c, 2013d).
24% 25% 000/ 20% H 21% 21% 21% 20% 19% 19% 170/ - | MM "*"- » ^B - —1 1-)Q/ ^ / 0 — ^ - | - | - - | - | 1988 1990 1993 1996 1999 2001 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
1 • -m-•-m--•--i- -H- -i-|-
-|-f
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Figure 3. Percentage of people in day and employment services receiving integrated employment supports across the nation (Institute for Community Inclusion, 2013).
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Table 2 ÍDD Spending and Services across the United States {Source: Braddock et al., 2013a)
State
HCBS per capita spending"^
% of total IDD spending for family support and supported living*
% of total IDD spending on community services with six or fewer people*^'
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee
$54 $156 $100 $53 $51 $65 $158 $99 $229 $45 $36 $74 $42 $44 $100 $110 $108 $74 $115 $209 $88 $100 $89 $224 $14 $70 $75 $107 $27 $141 $63 $133 $284 $53 $169 $102 $73 $150 $126 $207 $50 $110 $92
3 56 47 30 20 12 9 1 3 29 14 27 15 7 35 31 11 11 49 9 15 6 29 24 10 40 20 9 53 6 7 55 9 25 26 30 49 19 5 17 16 6 43
84 99 96 64 89 92 82 82 98 76 89 100 85 50 77 63 88 71 70 94 92 90 94 95 23 80 84 77 92 98 60 96 81 73 70 76 79 99 79 96 72 75 78
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Table 2 Continued
State
HCBS per capita spending^
Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming United States
$35 $48
$220 $59
$82 $135 $143
/ •
$170 $90
.., 1
% of total IDD spending for family support and supported living*
% of total IDD spending on community services with six or fewer people*^
32 8 13 9 53 42 13 22
66 74 100 71 83 85 81 81 80
20
capita denotes, per citizen of the general population. ^Spending for family support (children and adults in the family home) and supported living (adults in their own home) is divided by total IDD spending in each state. ^Spending for community services in the states is provided by the HCBS Waiver in addition to other state and local govemment funding. Community services consists of a wide range of residential supports, supported living, supported employment, family supports, case management, service coordination, transportation, and other supports. Total IDD spending also includes public and private residential facilities serving 16 or more persons per setting, including ICF/ID spending (but excluding nursing facility spending) ^Refers to residence, family support, supported employment, supported living, and related community day and support programs.
Individual Outcomes and Their Predictors—NCI NCI. The NCI program is another PNS funded by AIDD (Bradley & Moseley, 2007). The NCI are standard measurement tools and processes used in 36 states (this number is expected to grow to 45 by 2014) to assess multiple outcomes of services provided to people with IDD. Unlike the other PNS, this project gathers data about and from individual service users and as necessary their legal representatives related to individual service user outcomes. The NCI-Adult Consumer Survey (NCI-ACS) was developed to measure state IDD agency performance across an array of individual, family, and systems outcomes with a goal of providing actionable information to state agency policymakers, program administrators, researchers, families, and other stakeholders to be used to benchmark progress, track performance over time, and compare outcomes across states. NCI does not address every possible element of system-wide performance. The indicators are intended to work in tandem with other performance tracking and monitoring systems that states operate. However, it
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is important to note that because of the nature of the random sampling and data collection used in the NCI program, it is not possible to follow over time the same subjects, and thus there is no capacity to longitudinally monitor individual outcomes. One key criterion for the selection of NCI measures was and continues to be the extent to which each indicator makes meaningful comparisons between states possible. Comparability is accomplished through the use of common data collection protocols and through common definitions of the particular phenomenon and data source addressed by the indicator. The indicators represented by survey items are divided into several domains including: health, employment, living situation, safety, social relationships, satisfaction with services, self-direction, inclusion, choices, rights and service access. The indicators have remained consistent over the last several years and thus can be used to analyze system-level trends over time. The NCI-ACS currently generates critical information on over 12,236 randomly selected people with IDD receiving publicly supported
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services. The NCI-ACS is used to interview individuals receiving services and other key informants and consists of three major sections. The Background Section collects demographic, diagnostic, functional, behavioral, medical, and earnings data from individual records and is usually completed by program administrators and case managers. Section I contains subjective questions and can be completed only by interviewing the service recipient (proxies are not allowed). Section II consists of questions that are objective and may be answered by the service recipient or someone who knows the person well (a proxy). Ten studies based on the NCI-ACS dataset have been published in peer-reviewed journals since 2008 on multiple outcomes. Table 3 provides key information about these studies and the outcomes that were studied in each. Based on the framework of Shogren et al. (2009), 8 of the 10 studies have included similar person-referenced predictors or covariates, seven have included a systems-referenced predictor (i.e. type of living arrangement), while four have included a global variable (i.e., state in which the person with IDD lives). Table 4 serves as an organizer of examined predictors of individual outcom.es. Ordinary least squares or ordinal or logistic regressions were used to assess the impact of predictors, as a function of the type of an outcome
variable (study on overweight and obesity by Stancliffe et al., 2011, reported descriptive results only). Person-referenced characteristics (level of ID, age, mobility, and self-report ability to communicates verbally) accounted for significant differences in studies with outcomes of everyday and support-related choice making (Lakin et al., 2008a; Tichá et al., 2012), overweight and being diagnosed with Down syndrome (Stancliffe et al, 2012), preventative health care (Bershadsky et al., 2012), being diagnosed with autism and having relationships and being diagnosed with autism and other disabilities (Hewitt et al, 2012), choice of living arrangement (Stancliffe et al., 2011a), obesity and being overweight (Stancliffe et al., 2011b), and variations in expenditures for individuals with different characteristics and service needs (Lakin at al., 2008b). Additional person-referenced variables such as absence of problem behavior (Tichá et al., 2012) or absence of psychiatric diagnosis (Lakin et al., 2008a) were also significant predictors of everyday choice making. Type of living arrangement (systems-referenced predictor), even though not conceptualized consistently in all 10 studies, was a significant predictor in seven studies of the following outcomes: everyday and support-related choice making, preventative health care, choice of living arrangement, obesity and being overweight, and
Table 3 Studies Published in Peer-Reviewed Journals Based on the NCI Adult Consumer Survey Since 2008
Date
Journal*
Topic
Tichá et al. Stancliffe et al.
2012 2012
IDD JARID
Bershadsky et al. Hewitt, et al. Stancliffe, Lakin, Larson, Engler, Taub, et al. Stancliffe, Lakin, Larson, Engler, Bershadsky, et al. Stancliffe et al. Stancliffe et al. Lakin et al. Lakin et al.
2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2009 2008 2008
PHR RSAD JIDR AJIDD AAC IDD AJMR IDD
Choice making Down syndrome and overweight Preventative health care Autism Living arrangements Obesity AAC Satisfaction Choice making Expenditures
Authors^
^Full citations of the studies are included in the reference list. *IDD, Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities; JARID; PHR, Public Health Reports; RSAD, Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders; JIDR, Journal on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities; AJIDD, American Journal on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities; AAC, Augmentative and Alternative Gommunication; AJMR, American Journal of Mental Retardation.
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expenditures. The study on people with Down syndrome and being overweight included type of living arrangement as a predictor hut found no significant differences. Table 5 provides a summary of results of the effect of different types of living arrangement on each studied outcome using the NCI dataset. Most of the studies included a small agency residential setting with 1-15 people as the referent for comparison purposes. The NCI studies examined here have defined the type of living arrangement differently. In one study (Tichá et al. 2012) agency setting has been further categorized by number of individuals with IDD living there. Other studies (e.g., Stanclifïe, Lakin, Larson, Engler, Bershadsky, et al, 2011 ) have differentiated only between agency settings with 1-15 people and institutions (typically 164- people). Yet other studies grouped all congregate/agency-operated living arrangements into one category (e.g., Lakin et al., 2008). Individuals living in their own home (that they themselves owned or rented) were significantly more likely, for example, to make everyday choices than individuals living in any other type of residential setting. The only difference in making everyday choice that was not significant was between an individual living in a small agency residential setting with one to three people and living with own and host family (Tichá at al., 2012) or host family only (Lakin et al, 2008). A study by Bershadsky et al. (2012) on preventative health care for people with IDD used living with family as a referent and found that individuals living in agency-operated settings (especially those serving 16 or more people) were more likely to receive preventative health care than those living with their family. Four NCI studies examining differences in outcomes by state reported that state (global predictor) explained a significant proportion of variability over and above person-referenced and systems-referenced effects in what everyday and support-related choice they made, what type of preventative health care they received, and how much was spent on their services. Table 4 further illustrates which combinations of predictors and outcomes have been examined in previous NCI studies and of those that have been examined, which have demonstrated significant relationships. For example. Table 4 shows that level of ID has been included as a predictor in all but one of the previous studies and has been found significant in all but one (wellbeing and satisfaction
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©AAIDD DOI: 10.1352/1934-9556-51.5.298
outcome) of the studies that included it. Table 4 also helps to organize NCI variables (predictors) into levels at which outcomes relate to policy as outlined by Shogren et al. (2009). Table 6 outlines predictors at the levels in the framework of Shogren et al. (2009) that have been significant in previous NCI studies. Person-referenced characteristics that have been consistent predictors of outcomes for people with IDD include: level of ID, age, mobility, mode of communication, challenging behavior, and psychiatric diagnosis. Systems-referenced predictor has been the type of living arrangement and the global domain predictor has been state. As illustrated in Tables 4 and 6, although important work has been accomplished to identify common predictors of selected individual outcomes for people with IDD, there are numerous areas that remain largely unexplored. Table 7 provides an organizer of these areas in the person-referenced characteristics, family/community related, systemsreferenced, and global domain as outlined by Shogren et al. (2009).
Challenges, Debates, and Unresolved Issues The PNS cited in this paper, including RISP; State of the States in Developmental Disabilities Project; Access to Integrated Employment project; and the NCI, provide a wealth of information about where people live, work and about their outcomes related to community living, self-determination, health, etc. and the costs of these services and supports. These projects are administered and managed by separate institutes and cover their own area of focus utilizing their particular expertise. Large datasets that are the products of these projects (published yearly or every other year) have an important descriptive value and provide interesting contextual information to states about services and support for people with IDD through a systems lens. The NCI datasets with its variety of outcomes measured about individuals with IDD also provide an opportunity for inferential analysis that evaluate significant differences between subgroups of participants on a variety of outcomes and establish significant relationships between predictors and outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to provide an explicit organizational framework for moving forward in research and policy making as efficiently as possible not only by highlighting the already-made contributions but also by outlining the areas of need
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DOI: 10.1352/1934-9556-51.5.298
2013, VoL 51, No. 5, 298-315
Table 4 The Effects of Different types of Predictors on National Core Indicator Outcomes for People with IDD
Predictors/outcomes
Everyday Everyday choice choice
Supportrelated choice
Support- Down synrelated drome and choice overweight
Preventative health care
Person-referenced Level of ID (milder) Age (older) Gender (female) Ethnicity Mobility (walks) Problem behavior (none) Mental health diagnosis (none) Autism Down syndrome Vision or hearing impairment Physical disability (none) Cerebral palsy (none) Alzheimer's Self-report Communicates (verbally) Physically active Better health
A A
A n.s
n.s
n.s
X A A A
X A n.s
A
n.s X n.s X X X
n.s X n.s X X X
A A
A X X
A
A
V
n.s n.s X n.s n.s n.s n.s X n.s X X X
n.s n.s X
V A X
A A A
V
A A
A
X X X
A A n.s X A
V
n.s n.s X X X X X X X n.s X
X
A
sig
n.s
sig
sig 6 2,398 46%
X 25 12,381 11%
sig 20 11,569 18%
n.s X n.s X X X
X X
n.s
X X
X X n.s
sig
sig
sig
sig 19 8,892 44%
sig 6 2,398 50%
sig 19 8,892 31%
A X X
A n.s X X
Systems-referenced Type of living arrangement Global domain State Number of states Number of participants Total variability explained
Note. A = significant predictor of an increase in outcome; V ~ significant predictor of a decrease in outcome; sig = significant; n.s. = not significant; X = not examined; refer to Table 5 for more detailed information about the effect of type of living arrangement; type of living arrangement and state were dummy coded. for further work focused on person-referenced characteristics, family/community-related variables, systems-referenced factors, and global factors (Shogren et al., 2009) that affect lives of people with IDD. The following section provides a summary of some of the challenges the PNS projects face to make the information they generate of the highest quality and accessible to its readers and users. Dissemination. Civen the wealth of information generated by the PNS, there is a challenge to effectively disseminate the project findings to stakeholders who use them to create, update, and implement policies for people with IDD. This
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challenge includes (a) presentation of findings in ways that they can be easily interpreted and understood by varied target audiences including advocates, practitioners, and policy makers, (b) presence in easily accessible publications and other outlets, and (c) a possibility to easily manipulate the data as needed by the user. The primary means of dissemination of the PNS information are through technical reports and websites. Some of the PNS use social media as a dissemination tool, and one project provides a summary report specifically for self-advocates. When results of PNS are published in peerreviewed journals that require subscription or in
Predictors of Outcomes for People With IDD
©AAIDD
INTELLECTUAL AND DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES
DOI: 10.1352/1934-9556-51.5.298
2013, VoL 51, No. 5, 298-315
Table 4 Extended
Autism and Autism other and disability relationships
Choice of where to live
Choice of whom to live with
A
n.s X
A A A X X X A n.s X n.s n.s n.s X
A
A
n.s
X X
n.s n.s n.s
A X X
X X X X X X X X
A
V
sig
sig
Slg
n.s
sig
sig
X 26 6,778 31%
X
X
sig
20 8,911 NA
X 25 12,766 12%
X
26 6,778 26%
6 1,885 7%
4 1,421 56%
A A A
n.s n.s
X X X X
X X X X
X X X A
V
V
X X X X X
X X X X
n.s X n.s
X X X X
X X X X
X
X
X 25 12,382 6%
X 25 12,382 16%
A
publications of limited circulation or through dense technical reports, accessibility by both the professional and consumer community to these findings is restricted. The less accessible these publications are to the community, the less understanding, awareness, and dialogue are generated between policy and the most current findings. The PNS system is expanding its reach by adapting the dissemination to respond to the wider audience needs, through briefs, social media, and web-based report building features to facilitate more effective advocacy. Accessibility and ease of results interpretation can also be enhanced by the use of data display technologies (e.g.. Tableau software, Spotfire, and Domo). Such methods enable the user to display figures and trends customized to their needs and
R. Tichá et al.
Loneliness
Wellbeing and satisfaction Expenditures
X n.s X X X X X X X X X X X X n.s X X
A A A
X
Overweight or obesity
A X
A n.s X X X X A
X X n.s A n.s X X X X X X X X
V A
n.s X
V n.s
A A X n.s
X X X X X X
interests, while allowing for users to drill down to answer research questions of their own. Psychometric characteristics of measures. To collect data of high quality and relevant to the time, place, and situation to people with IDD and their support providers, it is necessary to work with data collection instruments that have good psychometric properties, including interobserver reliability, internal consistency, differential item functioning, social, content and construct validity, and sensitivity to change over time. It can be challenging to keep revising data collection instruments because such changes affect the ability to make trend comparisons. Instrumentation development and refinement are, however, an important aspect of an efficient and effective study of the impact of
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DOL 10.1352/1934-9556-51.5.298
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