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JAMA Intern Med. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2016 January 04. Published in final edited form as: JAMA Intern Med. 2015 December 1; 175(12): 1986–1988. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.5542.

Subjective, Objective, and Observed Long-Term Survival: A Longitudinal Cohort Study Rafael D. Romo, PhD, RN1,2, Sei J. Lee, MD, MAS1,2, Yinghui Miao, MPH2, W. John Boscardin, PhD1, and Alexander K. Smith, MD, MS, MPH1,2 1Division

of Geriatrics, University of California, San Francisco

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2Geriatrics

and Extended Care, San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center

To the Editor Many professional guidelines recommend using life expectancy when considering diagnostic or treatment interventions in which the time to benefit may exceed patients’ survival.1 When subjected to such tests and treatments, these patients are put at risk for upfront harms with little chance of reaping benefits.2

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Patients’ perceptions of prognosis are important. Clinicians who follow recommended guidelines may urge patients to change health routines to which they have become accustomed. Patients who underestimate their survival may choose to forego interventions that are likely to help them, while those who overestimate may choose to undergo interventions that are more likely to cause harm. However, little is known about how well older adults estimate their survival, the aim of this analysis.

Methods

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We drew a sample of 64-, 69-, 74-, 79-, 84-, and 89- year-old participants in the 2000 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative, longitudinal, prospective cohort study of adults in the United States.3 Institutional review board approval for HRS was received from the University of California, San Francisco, Committee on Human Research. Informed consent was obtained by HRS at the time of the interview. Our variable of interest was participants’ subjective estimate of long-term survival, assessed by the question, “What is the percent chance you will live to be x or more?” where x was 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, or 100 years old. Our sampling strategy ensured that all participants predicted survival across the same period. We calculated an objective estimate of life expectancy using the Lee life expectancy calculator.4 Observed survival was determined using mortality through 2010 (confirmed using the National Death Index). We compared participants’ subjective estimates to observed survival (using the C-statistic) and the objective estimates (using a best-fit analysis). Participants were classified as underestimating or overestimating

Corresponding author: Rafael D. Romo, PhD, RN, San Francisco VA Medical Center, 4150 Clement Street (181G), San Francisco, CA 94121. [email protected]. Office: (415) 221-4810, x5059. Fax: (415) 750-6641. The authors have no conflicts of interest to report.

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their survival if their estimate was more than 25 percentage points less or greater than the calculated prediction, respectively.

Results

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A total of 2018 respondents of the specified ages were interviewed directly in the 2000 wave of the HRS, and our final sample included 1722 participants who had complete responses necessary for the calculator (56%female, 88%white). We combined the 84- and 89-year-olds because of the small number of respondents in each group. Overall, discrimination was moderate for participants’ subjective estimates of survival compared with observed survival (C statistic = 0.62; P < .001). The 64- and 69-year-olds were moderately able to estimate their survival (C statistic = 0.62 and 0.58, respectively; P < .001 for both), but older participants fared no better than chance (Table). Substantial dissimilarity was seen between participants’ subjective and the objective estimates of survival (Figure). Overall, 54.7% of participants had estimates similar to the objective calculation; however, 32.7%underestimated and 11.5%overestimated. Underestimation was relatively similar across age groups, but overestimation increased significantly with age (Table) (P < .001).

Discussion

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Our findings have important implications for clinicians. First, approximately half the time, participants accurately estimated survival compared with an objective clinical estimate, and when in error, they were more likely to underestimate than overestimate. Consequently, disclosing prognosis is not necessarily bad news. Second, because of the substantial dissimilarity between the subjective and objective estimates, patients may be hesitant to follow guideline recommendations to change long-standing regimens. Third, our findings make a case for using prognostic calculators, which were more accurate than participants’ subjective estimates and have been shown to be superior to clinician estimates.5 Fourth, participants in the HRS were willing to make an estimate of their survival and report it. Previous research suggests that older adults are generally willing to discuss long-term prognosis.6 Clinicians should solicit patients’ individual perception of prognosis and use this information as a starting point for further discussion, particularly among older patients who may be more prone to errors. Then, in conjunction with prognostic tools, they can begin to bridge the gap between subjective and objective estimates of survival.

Acknowledgments Dr. Romo had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

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Study concept and design was undertaken by Dr. Romo and Dr. Smith. Acquisition of the data was undertaken by Ms. Miao, Dr. Romo, Dr. Smith, and Dr. Boscardin. Analysis and interpretation were undertaken by all authors. Drafting of the manuscript was undertaken by Dr. Romo. Critical revision of the manuscript was done by Dr. Romo, Dr. Smith, and Dr. Lee. Dr. Smith was supported by the National Institute on Aging (Grant Number: NIA 1K23AG040772) and the American Federation for Aging Research. Dr. Romo was supported by the National Veterans Affairs Quality Scholars program. This work was supported with resources and facilities at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center. The funding organizations had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript.

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Preliminary results for presented in a poster at the Annual Meeting of the American Geriatrics Society, May 15, 2015, National Harbor, MD.

References

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1. ABIM Foundation. Choosing wisely lists. 2014. http://www.choosingwisely.org/doctor-patientlists/. Accessed August 10, 2015 2. Lee SJ, Lindquist K, Segal MR, Covinsky KE. Development and validation of a prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults. JAMA. 2006; 295(7):801–8. [PubMed: 16478903] 3. Health and Retirement Study. Sample evolution: 1992–1998. 2008. http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/ sitedocs/surveydesign.pdf. Accessed August 10, 2015 4. Lee SJ, Boscardin WJ, Kirby KA, Covinsky KE. Individualizing life expectancy estimates for older adults using the Gompertz Law of Human Mortality. PLoS One. 2014; 9(9):e108540. [PubMed: 25265291] 5. Stiel S, Bertram L, Neuhaus S, et al. Evaluation and comparison of two prognostic scores and the physicians’ estimate of survival in terminally ill patients. Support Care Cancer. 2010; 18(1):43–9. [PubMed: 19381693] 6. Ahalt C, Walter LC, Yourman L, Eng C, Perez-Stable EJ, Smith AK. “Knowing is better”: preferences of diverse older adults for discussing prognosis. J Gen Intern Med. 2011; 27(5):568–75. [PubMed: 22127798]

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Figure 1. Subjective vs. Objective Estimates of Long-Term Survival

This figure illustrates the dissimilarity between participants’ subjective estimate of longterm survival and the calculated objective estimate. A best-fit line was statistically significant but accounted for very little variability (R2=0.12, p

Subjective, Objective, and Observed Long-term Survival: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

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