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British Journal of Educational Psychology (2014), 84, 22–39 © 2012 The British Psychological Society www.wileyonlinelibrary.com
School motivation and high school dropout: The mediating role of educational expectation Weihua Fan* and Christopher A. Wolters University of Houston, Texas, USA Background. A good deal of evidence indicates that students’ motivational beliefs and attitudes play a critical role in their academic success. Research studies on how motivational factors may help determine whether students remain in high school or drop out, however, are relatively few. More specifically, there is a lack of research examining the dynamics of whether students’ motivational beliefs from earlier in high school might be used to predict their status as a dropout in their final year. Aims. The aim of the present study was to examine the mediating role of students’ educational expectations in linking students’ school motivation to their dropout status by utilizing a nationally representative dataset. Sample. The present study used data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002). The final sample consisted of 16,194 students, with approximately 54% White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, and 10% Asian students, and the rest were Native American, Hawaiian, multiracial, or of other races. Method. Structural equation modelling was employed to conduct the mediational analysis. Results. The results of the present study demonstrated that the relationships between student ability beliefs in math and English and student behaviour of dropping out were fully mediated by students’ educational expectations. The results also revealed that student intrinsic value in math and English had significant indirect relations with student behaviour of leaving school through students’ educational expectations. Conclusions. The results of this study suggest that explanations for student dropout status that rely solely on students’ social background and school behaviours without considering their motivation are incomplete. The study expands the extant research by showing possible pathways that motivate students to persist in high school. These pathways are specifically rooted in students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic interest in learning through their relationships with students’ expectations for their education.
High school dropout rates have become one of the most prominent educational problems that result in costs not only to individuals but also to larger society. Research has shown that students who dropped out of school are more likely to have health problems, get involved in criminal activities, be employed with lower income jobs, and become more
*Correspondence should be addressed to Weihua Fan, Educational Psychology, College of Education, University of Houston, 423 Farish Hall, Houston, TX 77204-5029, USA (email: [email protected]). DOI:10.1111/bjep.12002
School motivation and high school dropout
23
dependent on welfare and other public assistant programs, (e.g., Alexander, Entwisle & Horsey, 1997; Rumberger, 1987). A large volume of research has been dedicated towards identifying factors that might explain why students drop out of school before their high school graduation. Research has shown that students bear greater risk of leaving school if they perform poorly academically, demonstrate more misbehaviours, become less engaged in school activities, come from low-income families or single-parent families, have a less- supportive relationship with parents, join schools with poor academic quality, obtain less support from teachers, or get negative influence from peer friends (e.g., Alexander et al., 1997; Archambault, Janosz, Fallu & Pag, 2009; Battin-Pearson et al., 2000; Englund, Egeland & Collins, 2008; Janosz, Archambault, Morizot & Pagani, 2008; Kaplan, Peck & Kaplan, 1997; Lan & Lanthier, 2003; Rumberger, 1987, 1995). In the past decade, researchers have also begun to use student school motivation to better understand and explain why students drop out of school. From this perspective, students’ decision to drop out is not just an achievement issue, but also a function of their motivation for school (e.g., Hardre & Reeve, 2003). Although motivational beliefs and attitudes appear to play a critical role in students’ academic success (e.g., Anderman & Wolters, 2006; Robbins et al., 2004; Skaalvik & Valas, 1999), investigations of how these factors relate to students’ decision to leave high school are limited. The overall objective of the present study, therefore, was to examine the longitudinal predictive power and the dynamics of early high school students’ motivation in predicting whether they left school before the end of the 12th grade. More specifically, the present study examined the mediating role of students’ educational expectations in linking students’ school motivation to their later behaviour of leaving or persisting in high school by utilizing a nationally representative dataset. Findings convey practical significance such as developing dropout prevention interventions with an emphasis on promoting student school motivation to increase student persistence in high school.
Theories of motivation Students’ motivation for school drives their thoughts and actions to obtain academic success and plays an important role in their efforts to learn, perform, and behave (e.g., Anderman & Wolters, 2006). Various theories have posited the influence of motivation in shaping students’ school behaviour. For example, Tinto (1975, 1993, 2003) proposed an integration model of attrition that uses students’ interactions with the academic and social systems along with individual characteristics such as educational expectation, values, and other motivational attributes to understand their decision to leave or persist in college. Tinto asserted that students’ educational expectations and view of their own education experiences are important influences on their decision to drop out or persist in college. Students who feel extrinsically and intrinsically rewarded tend to value their education experience, place greater importance on their education, expect to achieve more advanced academic goals, and are more persistent in college. From another motivational perspective, Eccles et al. (1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000) have used an expectancy-value model of motivation to understand adolescents’ social and academic experiences, values and beliefs, expectancies of success, and achievement-related choices. This model states that students’ perceived academic competence (i.e. ability belief) and students’ interest in learning (i.e. intrinsic value) play important roles in shaping their expectations regarding how they will perform in school tasks, which in turn influence their achievement-related choices and behaviours. That is, students who feel confident about their learning abilities and view school activities as interesting are
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Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters
likely to have higher expectations of their performance on upcoming tasks and make more positive achievement-related choices. Empirical researchers have applied this theory to predict student engagement in academic activities (Cox & Whaley, 2004; Gao & Xiang, 2008), academic performance (Gao & Xiang, 2008; Meece, Wigfield & Eccles, 1990), shame reactions from test feedback (Turner & Schallert, 2001), and full-time college attendance (Eccles, Vida & Barber, 2004). Drawing upon expectancy-value model, the present study was designed to advance our understanding of how students’ motivational beliefs may shape their decision to persist or drop out of high school.
Relating intrinsic value and ability belief to educational expectation Although school motivation has been studied using a variety of constructs, student intrinsic value and ability belief are two prominent components described in many motivational theories including the expectancy-value theory. Akin to Deci and Ryan’s (1985) construct of intrinsic motivation, Eccles and colleagues defined intrinsic value as the intrinsic reasons such as enjoyment an individual gets from engaging in an activity (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000). As such, it is one key element of task value which determines the academic behaviours of an individual. Students who demonstrate high intrinsic value engage in academic tasks due to their enjoyment of the task, interest, and their desire to learn. Individuals’ beliefs in their ability to produce desired results, to learn, and perform successfully is also known as ability belief or self-efficacy (Bandura, 1997; Wigfield, Byrnes & Eddles, 2006). Both intrinsic value and ability beliefs have been shown to play an important role in adolescents’ academic development (Pajares, 1996; Ryan & Deci, 2000; Schiefele, 2001; Zimmerman, 2000) by positively relating to student persistence and effort (Renninger, Ewan & Lasher, 2002; Schunk & Zimmerman, 2006), academic achievement (Renninger et al., 2002; Robbins et al., 2004) and achievement-related behaviouqrs (Britner & Pajares, 2006; Trusty, 2000). In line with expectancy-value theory, we posit that students’ belief in obtaining desired goals is shaped by their ability beliefs and intrinsic value. That is, students who are confident in their learning abilities and are intrinsically interested in learning activities are more likely to have higher expectations for obtaining desired academic goals. Although research has primarily measured students’ beliefs for obtaining desired goals as expectancy of success in a classroom context or within a scope of a certain subject (Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), an analogous construct is students’ expectation for obtaining desired educational goals more broadly. For adolescents who become old enough to legally leave school, their educational expectations become even more critical. Unless students expect that they will ultimately obtain a high school degree, they may have little incentive to persist in high school. Prior research indicates that students’ ability beliefs are linked to their educational expectations (e.g., Bandura, Barbaranelli, Caprara & Pastorelli, 2001; Rottinghaus, Lindley, Green & Borgen, 2002; Tang, Pan & Newmeyer, 2008; Trusty, 2000). For example, Bandura et al. (2001) conducted a longitudinal study to examine a structural model of sociocognitive influences that shape students’ educational expectations and career trajectories. Their results revealed that students’ academic expectations were positively linked to their ability belief and were also a key determinant of their preferred choice of career. Trusty (2000) conducted a national investigation of the stability of adolescents’ educational expectations. Results suggested that ability beliefs positively predict the stability of educational expectations for both female and male subjects. Although less frequently studied, extant research also supports positive relations between intrinsic value and educational expectations. For example, Rottinghaus et al. (2002) examined the role of ability belief
School motivation and high school dropout
25
and interest in explaining college students’ expectations for their education. They found that students’ interest and ability beliefs both made significant contributions in explaining their educational expectations. Based on both theoretical and empirical evidence from prior research, it seems reasonable to postulate that students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic values positively predict their educational expectations.
High school dropout as a motivational outcome Research has provided evidence that academic motivation is an important psychological factor that helps predict whether students drop out of school (e.g., Caprara et al., 2008; Hardre & Reeve, 2003; Horowitz, 1992; Lan & Lanthier, 2003; Stage, 1989; Vallerand & Bissonnette, 1992; Vallerand, Fortier & Guay, 1997). The three most relevant studies in this line of research include Hardre and Reeve (2003), Caprara et al. (2008), and Vallerand et al. (1997). Hardre and Reeve (2003) tested a motivational mediation model based on self-determination theory and showed that students’ self-determined motivation and perceived competence significantly explained a unique amount of variance in students’ intentions to persist versus drop out of high school. Caprara et al. (2008) conducted a longitudinal study to examine the developmental course of perceived efficacy for self-regulated learning and its impact on student dropout. Their results revealed that high school self-regulatory efficacy partially mediated the relation of junior high grades on high school grades and the likelihood of remaining in school. Similarly, Vallerand et al. (1997) demonstrated that students’ perceptions of competence and autonomy impacted students’ self-determined motivation, which in turn predicted students’ intention and ultimate behaviour of leaving high school. Their results not only revealed that dropout students had lower levels of autonomy and perceived themselves as being less competent at school activities, but also showed that students with higher perceived school competence tended to have higher self-determined school motivation, and thus have a stronger intention to stay in school and complete their high school education. Collectively, these studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of the relationship between students’ academic motivation and their decision to leave school. Still, important research gaps exist. Although informative, studies of Vallerand et al. (1997) and Caprara et al. (2008) focussed on the population of French-Canadian students or Italian students respectively. Whether the same result patterns hold true for American high school students remains unknown as different populations arise from very different historical backgrounds, social environments, and cultural contexts. Hardre and Reeve (2003), on the other hand, investigated students’ intention of dropping out instead of their actual behaviour. And all three studies focus on student competence belief or autonomy from the perspective of students’ self-determined motivation. Still needed is research conducted with a larger spectrum of motivational constructs that applies different motivational theories to discover how student school motivation may shape students’ actual behaviour of dropping out. The representativeness of the national large-scale data also allows wider conclusions generalizable to the population of high school students in the United States.
Relating educational expectation to high school dropout Although the process of students’ dropping out has been widely investigated, educational psychologists have less frequently examined the role of educational expectations in this process. Yet students’ intentions of dropping out, their actual leaving behaviour, and their expectations for education are closely intertwined in many ways. To attend college and
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obtain higher levels of advanced education, a high school diploma or equivalent is often a basic requirement. One is very unlikely to be a college student without first graduating from high school. Many studies have also ascertained the role of student expectations to attend college as a major predictor of actually attending college (Andres, Adamuti-Trache, Yoon, Pidgeon & Thomsen, 2007; Eccles et al., 2004). Thus, there is good reason to believe that students who expect to attend college or obtain higher levels of education are less likely to drop out of high school. Prior research from different research literatures has provided support for the relation between students’ educational expectations and their high school graduation/dropout including studies of Ensminger and Slusarcick (1992), Muller (1998), and Schiller and Muller (2000). Ensminger and Slusarcick (1992) conducted a longitudinal study to examine students’ developmental paths towards high school graduation. Their results demonstrated a strong link between students’ educational expectations and their graduation from high school. From a different perspective, Muller (1998) examined if teachers’ expectations and students’ educational expectations moderated the effects of the minimum competency exam requirement on high school graduation. The results showed that students’ educational expectations significantly predicted their successful graduation from high school. Similarly, Schiller and Muller (2000) indicated that students’ own educational expectations were significantly related to students’ likelihood of earning a high school diploma. Although there is increased evidence for the significant role of educational expectations and academic motivation in predicting high school graduation (and conversely dropping out), less is known about the mechanisms that mediate this process. It is commonly understood that, over time, students gradually disengage from school well before they actually leave school (Lee & Burkam, 2003). Testing the mediational sequence wherein students’ educational expectations play an intervening role in the relationship between their motivational beliefs and their actual exit from high school will provide insight into the dynamics of the dropout process. In support of the mediating role of student educational expectations, Bandura et al. (2001) showed that students’ educational expectations mediated the effects of children’s ability belief on their occupational pursuits and perceived career efficacy. In summary, drawing upon the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983), the present study aimed to examine whether students’ expectations for their education mediated the relationships between their academic motivation and their behaviour of dropping out of high school. Figure 1 summarizes the hypothesized pathways amongst student ability beliefs, intrinsic value, educational expectations, and high school dropout behaviour. More specifically, students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic value have direct links to students’ educational expectations, which concurrently lead to their dropout behaviour. It is hypothesized that, when adolescents have stronger belief about their academic abilities and greater interest in academic activities, they tend to have higher expectations for their education and be more likely to persist in high school.
Method Data Data came from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002) conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics. The ELS: 2002 surveyed a nationally representative cohort of students from the United States who proceed from 10th grade when they were approximately 16 years old to post-secondary education or their chosen career. The data provide a good description of the transitional pathways students follow in terms of
School motivation and high school dropout
27
Grade 10 ability belief across domains
Grade 10 educational expectation
Grade 12 drop out of high school
Grade 10 intrinsic value across domains Figure 1. Conceptual model. Note. Solid lines indicate hypothesized mediating paths and dashed lines indicate direct paths from school motivation to high school dropout.
motivation, aspirations, and education experience. The present study utilized data from both the base year survey in 2002 when students were in 10th grade as well as the follow-up survey 2 years later in 2004. The change in students’ enrollment or dropout status within the last 2 years of high school was the focus of the present study. Similar to other large-scale national surveys, ELS: 2002 employed a two-stage complex sample design, first selecting schools and then selecting students within each school. The survey was administered in a national probability sample of 752 public, Catholic, and other private schools. The present study handled the complex sample by applying stratum, cluster, and weight in the statistical analysis procedures to correct for non-responses and to adjust for unequal probabilities of student selection. We also employed a multiple imputation (MI) Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to handle missing data using SAS 9.2. The MI approach has been found to introduce appropriate random error in the process to obtain more accurate estimates through repeated imputation (King, Honaker, Joseph & Scheve, 2001). The final sample for the study consisted of 16,194 students, with approximately 54% White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian students, and 7% who indicated some other racial/ ethnic background (e.g., Native American, Hawaiian, multiracial). Among the final sample, 47% were male, 48% female, and 5% were missing data for gender.
Measures Consistent with the user manual for the ELS: 2002 (NCES (National Center for Education Statistics), 2007), the two primary motivational constructs examined as predictors on this study were termed ability belief and intrinsic value. These scales on the ELS: 2002 were adopted and adjusted from existing surveys in the literature such as the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (Pintrich, Smith, Garcia & McKeachie, 1993) and the self-report Scale of Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic Orientation (Harter, 1981). Research has provided strong empirical support for the domain specificity of ability belief and intrinsic
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value along the line of subjects such as English and math (e.g., Bong, 1997) and suggested the need to investigate each motivation construct separately within subjects (Bong, 2001; Gottfried, 1985; Jacobs, Lanza, Osgood, Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). Thus, both ability belief and intrinsic value were assessed for math and English respectively in the present study. All motivational measures were assessed in 2002 when students were in 10th grade. The content of the items assessing each of the constructs is presented in Table 1. The items assessing student academic ability belief and intrinsic value factors were all measured on a 4-point scale and were appropriately reverse-coded when necessary. Reliability coefficients of Cronbach’s alpha were .93, .93, .66,1 and.87 for each of the four scales respectively (see Table 1). Educational expectation was assessed when students were in the 10th grade with a single item that asked them to report the highest educational level they expected to complete. Students indicated one of the following: (1) less than high school graduation, (2) high school graduation only, (3) attend or complete a 2-year school course in a community or vocational school, (4) attend college but not complete a 4-year degree, (5) graduate from college, (6) obtain a master’s degree or equivalent, (7) obtain a Ph.D., M.D. or other advanced degree. This composite was created and imputed statistically using a weighted sequential hot deck procedure by ELS (ELS: 2002). In addition, demographic variables assessing student ethnicity, gender, and socio-economic status (SES) were also included in the present study. Ethnicity and gender were both binary variables with non-white or female students coded as 1 and white or male students coded as 0. SES generalised by ELS:2002 was a standardized composite based on five standardized scores: students’ father’s/guardian’s education, mother’s/guardian’s education, family income, father’s/guardian’s occupation, and mother’s/guardian’s occupation. The dependent variable used in the present study reflected students’ high school enrollment status in spring 2004. This variable, labelled dropout status, indicated whether a student was enrolled in school (dropout status = 0) or whether the student was no longer enrolled in high school in spring 2004 (dropout status = 1). Among the total sample of 16,194 students, 896 students (5.5%) had dropped out of school with 314 missing cases (1.9%). In comparison with the total sample, the group of students who had dropped out of school included lower proportions of students who were White (38%) or Asian (4%), but higher proportions of students who were Black (20%) or Hispanic (21%).
Analysis A structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was used to test the mediating role of educational expectation in the relationships between students’ academic motivation and their dropout status. According to Baron and Kenny (1986), three criteria would need to be met to conclude that full mediation exists. First, the particular motivational construct must predict dropout status directly when educational expectation is not in the model. Second, the motivation construct must predict educational expectation directly, and educational expectation must predict dropout status when each are included in the model. Third, the motivational construct must have no direct effect on dropout status when educational expectation is controlled in the model.
1 The comparative lower reliability for the intrinsic value in math was probably due to the fact that there were less items (in this case, two items) assessing this construct.
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29
Table 1. Unweighted descriptive statistics for dropout and non-dropout students Dropout Item content Ability belief in math Confident that can do an excellent job in math tests Certain that can understand the most difficult material presented in math texts Confident that can understand the most complex material presented in math texts Confident that can do an excellent job in math assignments Certain that can master the skills being taught in math class Ability belief in English Certain that can understand the most difficult material presented in English texts Confident that can understand the most complex material presented by English teacher Confident that can do an excellent job in English assignments Confident that can do an excellent job in English tests Certain that can master the skills being taught in English class Intrinsic value towards math Get totally absorbed in math Think math is fun Intrinsic value towards English Think reading is fun Read in spare time Get totally absorbed in reading Educational expectation Social economic status Gender (female = 1 and male = 0) Ethnicity (non-white = 1 and white = 0) N
M
Non-Dropout SD
M
SD
a = 0.93 2.38
0.95
2.55
0.93
2.21
0.97
2.37
0.94
2.33
0.98
2.47
0.97
2.48
1.00
2.64
0.94
2.50
0.96
2.66
0.94
a = 0.93 2.42
0.93
2.61
0.89
2.44
0.94
2.65
0.92
2.60
0.92
2.84
0.88
2.57
0.94
2.79
0.90
2.54
0.92
2.74
0.89
0.83 0.85
2.51 2.21
0.80 0.84
0.91 0.94 0.92 1.75 0.58 0.50 0.49
2.52 2.50 2.74 5.25 0.16 0.50 0.45 15,301
0.91 0.92 0.92 1.39 0.68 0.50 0.50
a = 0.66 2.51 2.19 a = 0.87 2.41 2.44 2.64 4.22 0.22 0.45 0.61 896
Thus, two sets of SEM models were examined. The first set of models focussed on the direct links from ability belief and intrinsic value to dropout status without accounting for educational expectation. The second set of models included direct paths from both ability belief and intrinsic value to dropout status as well as indirect paths through educational expectation. Comparing results from the two sets of SEM models will help establish whether there is any mediating effect of educational expectation. All the analyses were conducted using Mplus 5.1 (Muthe´n & Muthe´n, 1998). Past work (Schumacker & Lomax, 1996) has shown that the chi-square statistic is sensitive to sample size and can result in a high and unwarranted rejection of an acceptable model for large samples. In the present study, therefore, we followed the recommen-
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dation that a CFI >.90 and an RMSEA
British Journal of Educational Psychology (2014), 84, 22–39 © 2012 The British Psychological Society www.wileyonlinelibrary.com
School motivation and high school dropout: The mediating role of educational expectation Weihua Fan* and Christopher A. Wolters University of Houston, Texas, USA Background. A good deal of evidence indicates that students’ motivational beliefs and attitudes play a critical role in their academic success. Research studies on how motivational factors may help determine whether students remain in high school or drop out, however, are relatively few. More specifically, there is a lack of research examining the dynamics of whether students’ motivational beliefs from earlier in high school might be used to predict their status as a dropout in their final year. Aims. The aim of the present study was to examine the mediating role of students’ educational expectations in linking students’ school motivation to their dropout status by utilizing a nationally representative dataset. Sample. The present study used data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002). The final sample consisted of 16,194 students, with approximately 54% White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, and 10% Asian students, and the rest were Native American, Hawaiian, multiracial, or of other races. Method. Structural equation modelling was employed to conduct the mediational analysis. Results. The results of the present study demonstrated that the relationships between student ability beliefs in math and English and student behaviour of dropping out were fully mediated by students’ educational expectations. The results also revealed that student intrinsic value in math and English had significant indirect relations with student behaviour of leaving school through students’ educational expectations. Conclusions. The results of this study suggest that explanations for student dropout status that rely solely on students’ social background and school behaviours without considering their motivation are incomplete. The study expands the extant research by showing possible pathways that motivate students to persist in high school. These pathways are specifically rooted in students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic interest in learning through their relationships with students’ expectations for their education.
High school dropout rates have become one of the most prominent educational problems that result in costs not only to individuals but also to larger society. Research has shown that students who dropped out of school are more likely to have health problems, get involved in criminal activities, be employed with lower income jobs, and become more
*Correspondence should be addressed to Weihua Fan, Educational Psychology, College of Education, University of Houston, 423 Farish Hall, Houston, TX 77204-5029, USA (email: [email protected]). DOI:10.1111/bjep.12002
School motivation and high school dropout
23
dependent on welfare and other public assistant programs, (e.g., Alexander, Entwisle & Horsey, 1997; Rumberger, 1987). A large volume of research has been dedicated towards identifying factors that might explain why students drop out of school before their high school graduation. Research has shown that students bear greater risk of leaving school if they perform poorly academically, demonstrate more misbehaviours, become less engaged in school activities, come from low-income families or single-parent families, have a less- supportive relationship with parents, join schools with poor academic quality, obtain less support from teachers, or get negative influence from peer friends (e.g., Alexander et al., 1997; Archambault, Janosz, Fallu & Pag, 2009; Battin-Pearson et al., 2000; Englund, Egeland & Collins, 2008; Janosz, Archambault, Morizot & Pagani, 2008; Kaplan, Peck & Kaplan, 1997; Lan & Lanthier, 2003; Rumberger, 1987, 1995). In the past decade, researchers have also begun to use student school motivation to better understand and explain why students drop out of school. From this perspective, students’ decision to drop out is not just an achievement issue, but also a function of their motivation for school (e.g., Hardre & Reeve, 2003). Although motivational beliefs and attitudes appear to play a critical role in students’ academic success (e.g., Anderman & Wolters, 2006; Robbins et al., 2004; Skaalvik & Valas, 1999), investigations of how these factors relate to students’ decision to leave high school are limited. The overall objective of the present study, therefore, was to examine the longitudinal predictive power and the dynamics of early high school students’ motivation in predicting whether they left school before the end of the 12th grade. More specifically, the present study examined the mediating role of students’ educational expectations in linking students’ school motivation to their later behaviour of leaving or persisting in high school by utilizing a nationally representative dataset. Findings convey practical significance such as developing dropout prevention interventions with an emphasis on promoting student school motivation to increase student persistence in high school.
Theories of motivation Students’ motivation for school drives their thoughts and actions to obtain academic success and plays an important role in their efforts to learn, perform, and behave (e.g., Anderman & Wolters, 2006). Various theories have posited the influence of motivation in shaping students’ school behaviour. For example, Tinto (1975, 1993, 2003) proposed an integration model of attrition that uses students’ interactions with the academic and social systems along with individual characteristics such as educational expectation, values, and other motivational attributes to understand their decision to leave or persist in college. Tinto asserted that students’ educational expectations and view of their own education experiences are important influences on their decision to drop out or persist in college. Students who feel extrinsically and intrinsically rewarded tend to value their education experience, place greater importance on their education, expect to achieve more advanced academic goals, and are more persistent in college. From another motivational perspective, Eccles et al. (1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000) have used an expectancy-value model of motivation to understand adolescents’ social and academic experiences, values and beliefs, expectancies of success, and achievement-related choices. This model states that students’ perceived academic competence (i.e. ability belief) and students’ interest in learning (i.e. intrinsic value) play important roles in shaping their expectations regarding how they will perform in school tasks, which in turn influence their achievement-related choices and behaviours. That is, students who feel confident about their learning abilities and view school activities as interesting are
24
Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters
likely to have higher expectations of their performance on upcoming tasks and make more positive achievement-related choices. Empirical researchers have applied this theory to predict student engagement in academic activities (Cox & Whaley, 2004; Gao & Xiang, 2008), academic performance (Gao & Xiang, 2008; Meece, Wigfield & Eccles, 1990), shame reactions from test feedback (Turner & Schallert, 2001), and full-time college attendance (Eccles, Vida & Barber, 2004). Drawing upon expectancy-value model, the present study was designed to advance our understanding of how students’ motivational beliefs may shape their decision to persist or drop out of high school.
Relating intrinsic value and ability belief to educational expectation Although school motivation has been studied using a variety of constructs, student intrinsic value and ability belief are two prominent components described in many motivational theories including the expectancy-value theory. Akin to Deci and Ryan’s (1985) construct of intrinsic motivation, Eccles and colleagues defined intrinsic value as the intrinsic reasons such as enjoyment an individual gets from engaging in an activity (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000). As such, it is one key element of task value which determines the academic behaviours of an individual. Students who demonstrate high intrinsic value engage in academic tasks due to their enjoyment of the task, interest, and their desire to learn. Individuals’ beliefs in their ability to produce desired results, to learn, and perform successfully is also known as ability belief or self-efficacy (Bandura, 1997; Wigfield, Byrnes & Eddles, 2006). Both intrinsic value and ability beliefs have been shown to play an important role in adolescents’ academic development (Pajares, 1996; Ryan & Deci, 2000; Schiefele, 2001; Zimmerman, 2000) by positively relating to student persistence and effort (Renninger, Ewan & Lasher, 2002; Schunk & Zimmerman, 2006), academic achievement (Renninger et al., 2002; Robbins et al., 2004) and achievement-related behaviouqrs (Britner & Pajares, 2006; Trusty, 2000). In line with expectancy-value theory, we posit that students’ belief in obtaining desired goals is shaped by their ability beliefs and intrinsic value. That is, students who are confident in their learning abilities and are intrinsically interested in learning activities are more likely to have higher expectations for obtaining desired academic goals. Although research has primarily measured students’ beliefs for obtaining desired goals as expectancy of success in a classroom context or within a scope of a certain subject (Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), an analogous construct is students’ expectation for obtaining desired educational goals more broadly. For adolescents who become old enough to legally leave school, their educational expectations become even more critical. Unless students expect that they will ultimately obtain a high school degree, they may have little incentive to persist in high school. Prior research indicates that students’ ability beliefs are linked to their educational expectations (e.g., Bandura, Barbaranelli, Caprara & Pastorelli, 2001; Rottinghaus, Lindley, Green & Borgen, 2002; Tang, Pan & Newmeyer, 2008; Trusty, 2000). For example, Bandura et al. (2001) conducted a longitudinal study to examine a structural model of sociocognitive influences that shape students’ educational expectations and career trajectories. Their results revealed that students’ academic expectations were positively linked to their ability belief and were also a key determinant of their preferred choice of career. Trusty (2000) conducted a national investigation of the stability of adolescents’ educational expectations. Results suggested that ability beliefs positively predict the stability of educational expectations for both female and male subjects. Although less frequently studied, extant research also supports positive relations between intrinsic value and educational expectations. For example, Rottinghaus et al. (2002) examined the role of ability belief
School motivation and high school dropout
25
and interest in explaining college students’ expectations for their education. They found that students’ interest and ability beliefs both made significant contributions in explaining their educational expectations. Based on both theoretical and empirical evidence from prior research, it seems reasonable to postulate that students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic values positively predict their educational expectations.
High school dropout as a motivational outcome Research has provided evidence that academic motivation is an important psychological factor that helps predict whether students drop out of school (e.g., Caprara et al., 2008; Hardre & Reeve, 2003; Horowitz, 1992; Lan & Lanthier, 2003; Stage, 1989; Vallerand & Bissonnette, 1992; Vallerand, Fortier & Guay, 1997). The three most relevant studies in this line of research include Hardre and Reeve (2003), Caprara et al. (2008), and Vallerand et al. (1997). Hardre and Reeve (2003) tested a motivational mediation model based on self-determination theory and showed that students’ self-determined motivation and perceived competence significantly explained a unique amount of variance in students’ intentions to persist versus drop out of high school. Caprara et al. (2008) conducted a longitudinal study to examine the developmental course of perceived efficacy for self-regulated learning and its impact on student dropout. Their results revealed that high school self-regulatory efficacy partially mediated the relation of junior high grades on high school grades and the likelihood of remaining in school. Similarly, Vallerand et al. (1997) demonstrated that students’ perceptions of competence and autonomy impacted students’ self-determined motivation, which in turn predicted students’ intention and ultimate behaviour of leaving high school. Their results not only revealed that dropout students had lower levels of autonomy and perceived themselves as being less competent at school activities, but also showed that students with higher perceived school competence tended to have higher self-determined school motivation, and thus have a stronger intention to stay in school and complete their high school education. Collectively, these studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of the relationship between students’ academic motivation and their decision to leave school. Still, important research gaps exist. Although informative, studies of Vallerand et al. (1997) and Caprara et al. (2008) focussed on the population of French-Canadian students or Italian students respectively. Whether the same result patterns hold true for American high school students remains unknown as different populations arise from very different historical backgrounds, social environments, and cultural contexts. Hardre and Reeve (2003), on the other hand, investigated students’ intention of dropping out instead of their actual behaviour. And all three studies focus on student competence belief or autonomy from the perspective of students’ self-determined motivation. Still needed is research conducted with a larger spectrum of motivational constructs that applies different motivational theories to discover how student school motivation may shape students’ actual behaviour of dropping out. The representativeness of the national large-scale data also allows wider conclusions generalizable to the population of high school students in the United States.
Relating educational expectation to high school dropout Although the process of students’ dropping out has been widely investigated, educational psychologists have less frequently examined the role of educational expectations in this process. Yet students’ intentions of dropping out, their actual leaving behaviour, and their expectations for education are closely intertwined in many ways. To attend college and
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obtain higher levels of advanced education, a high school diploma or equivalent is often a basic requirement. One is very unlikely to be a college student without first graduating from high school. Many studies have also ascertained the role of student expectations to attend college as a major predictor of actually attending college (Andres, Adamuti-Trache, Yoon, Pidgeon & Thomsen, 2007; Eccles et al., 2004). Thus, there is good reason to believe that students who expect to attend college or obtain higher levels of education are less likely to drop out of high school. Prior research from different research literatures has provided support for the relation between students’ educational expectations and their high school graduation/dropout including studies of Ensminger and Slusarcick (1992), Muller (1998), and Schiller and Muller (2000). Ensminger and Slusarcick (1992) conducted a longitudinal study to examine students’ developmental paths towards high school graduation. Their results demonstrated a strong link between students’ educational expectations and their graduation from high school. From a different perspective, Muller (1998) examined if teachers’ expectations and students’ educational expectations moderated the effects of the minimum competency exam requirement on high school graduation. The results showed that students’ educational expectations significantly predicted their successful graduation from high school. Similarly, Schiller and Muller (2000) indicated that students’ own educational expectations were significantly related to students’ likelihood of earning a high school diploma. Although there is increased evidence for the significant role of educational expectations and academic motivation in predicting high school graduation (and conversely dropping out), less is known about the mechanisms that mediate this process. It is commonly understood that, over time, students gradually disengage from school well before they actually leave school (Lee & Burkam, 2003). Testing the mediational sequence wherein students’ educational expectations play an intervening role in the relationship between their motivational beliefs and their actual exit from high school will provide insight into the dynamics of the dropout process. In support of the mediating role of student educational expectations, Bandura et al. (2001) showed that students’ educational expectations mediated the effects of children’s ability belief on their occupational pursuits and perceived career efficacy. In summary, drawing upon the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983), the present study aimed to examine whether students’ expectations for their education mediated the relationships between their academic motivation and their behaviour of dropping out of high school. Figure 1 summarizes the hypothesized pathways amongst student ability beliefs, intrinsic value, educational expectations, and high school dropout behaviour. More specifically, students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic value have direct links to students’ educational expectations, which concurrently lead to their dropout behaviour. It is hypothesized that, when adolescents have stronger belief about their academic abilities and greater interest in academic activities, they tend to have higher expectations for their education and be more likely to persist in high school.
Method Data Data came from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002) conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics. The ELS: 2002 surveyed a nationally representative cohort of students from the United States who proceed from 10th grade when they were approximately 16 years old to post-secondary education or their chosen career. The data provide a good description of the transitional pathways students follow in terms of
School motivation and high school dropout
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Grade 10 ability belief across domains
Grade 10 educational expectation
Grade 12 drop out of high school
Grade 10 intrinsic value across domains Figure 1. Conceptual model. Note. Solid lines indicate hypothesized mediating paths and dashed lines indicate direct paths from school motivation to high school dropout.
motivation, aspirations, and education experience. The present study utilized data from both the base year survey in 2002 when students were in 10th grade as well as the follow-up survey 2 years later in 2004. The change in students’ enrollment or dropout status within the last 2 years of high school was the focus of the present study. Similar to other large-scale national surveys, ELS: 2002 employed a two-stage complex sample design, first selecting schools and then selecting students within each school. The survey was administered in a national probability sample of 752 public, Catholic, and other private schools. The present study handled the complex sample by applying stratum, cluster, and weight in the statistical analysis procedures to correct for non-responses and to adjust for unequal probabilities of student selection. We also employed a multiple imputation (MI) Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to handle missing data using SAS 9.2. The MI approach has been found to introduce appropriate random error in the process to obtain more accurate estimates through repeated imputation (King, Honaker, Joseph & Scheve, 2001). The final sample for the study consisted of 16,194 students, with approximately 54% White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian students, and 7% who indicated some other racial/ ethnic background (e.g., Native American, Hawaiian, multiracial). Among the final sample, 47% were male, 48% female, and 5% were missing data for gender.
Measures Consistent with the user manual for the ELS: 2002 (NCES (National Center for Education Statistics), 2007), the two primary motivational constructs examined as predictors on this study were termed ability belief and intrinsic value. These scales on the ELS: 2002 were adopted and adjusted from existing surveys in the literature such as the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (Pintrich, Smith, Garcia & McKeachie, 1993) and the self-report Scale of Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic Orientation (Harter, 1981). Research has provided strong empirical support for the domain specificity of ability belief and intrinsic
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value along the line of subjects such as English and math (e.g., Bong, 1997) and suggested the need to investigate each motivation construct separately within subjects (Bong, 2001; Gottfried, 1985; Jacobs, Lanza, Osgood, Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). Thus, both ability belief and intrinsic value were assessed for math and English respectively in the present study. All motivational measures were assessed in 2002 when students were in 10th grade. The content of the items assessing each of the constructs is presented in Table 1. The items assessing student academic ability belief and intrinsic value factors were all measured on a 4-point scale and were appropriately reverse-coded when necessary. Reliability coefficients of Cronbach’s alpha were .93, .93, .66,1 and.87 for each of the four scales respectively (see Table 1). Educational expectation was assessed when students were in the 10th grade with a single item that asked them to report the highest educational level they expected to complete. Students indicated one of the following: (1) less than high school graduation, (2) high school graduation only, (3) attend or complete a 2-year school course in a community or vocational school, (4) attend college but not complete a 4-year degree, (5) graduate from college, (6) obtain a master’s degree or equivalent, (7) obtain a Ph.D., M.D. or other advanced degree. This composite was created and imputed statistically using a weighted sequential hot deck procedure by ELS (ELS: 2002). In addition, demographic variables assessing student ethnicity, gender, and socio-economic status (SES) were also included in the present study. Ethnicity and gender were both binary variables with non-white or female students coded as 1 and white or male students coded as 0. SES generalised by ELS:2002 was a standardized composite based on five standardized scores: students’ father’s/guardian’s education, mother’s/guardian’s education, family income, father’s/guardian’s occupation, and mother’s/guardian’s occupation. The dependent variable used in the present study reflected students’ high school enrollment status in spring 2004. This variable, labelled dropout status, indicated whether a student was enrolled in school (dropout status = 0) or whether the student was no longer enrolled in high school in spring 2004 (dropout status = 1). Among the total sample of 16,194 students, 896 students (5.5%) had dropped out of school with 314 missing cases (1.9%). In comparison with the total sample, the group of students who had dropped out of school included lower proportions of students who were White (38%) or Asian (4%), but higher proportions of students who were Black (20%) or Hispanic (21%).
Analysis A structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was used to test the mediating role of educational expectation in the relationships between students’ academic motivation and their dropout status. According to Baron and Kenny (1986), three criteria would need to be met to conclude that full mediation exists. First, the particular motivational construct must predict dropout status directly when educational expectation is not in the model. Second, the motivation construct must predict educational expectation directly, and educational expectation must predict dropout status when each are included in the model. Third, the motivational construct must have no direct effect on dropout status when educational expectation is controlled in the model.
1 The comparative lower reliability for the intrinsic value in math was probably due to the fact that there were less items (in this case, two items) assessing this construct.
School motivation and high school dropout
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Table 1. Unweighted descriptive statistics for dropout and non-dropout students Dropout Item content Ability belief in math Confident that can do an excellent job in math tests Certain that can understand the most difficult material presented in math texts Confident that can understand the most complex material presented in math texts Confident that can do an excellent job in math assignments Certain that can master the skills being taught in math class Ability belief in English Certain that can understand the most difficult material presented in English texts Confident that can understand the most complex material presented by English teacher Confident that can do an excellent job in English assignments Confident that can do an excellent job in English tests Certain that can master the skills being taught in English class Intrinsic value towards math Get totally absorbed in math Think math is fun Intrinsic value towards English Think reading is fun Read in spare time Get totally absorbed in reading Educational expectation Social economic status Gender (female = 1 and male = 0) Ethnicity (non-white = 1 and white = 0) N
M
Non-Dropout SD
M
SD
a = 0.93 2.38
0.95
2.55
0.93
2.21
0.97
2.37
0.94
2.33
0.98
2.47
0.97
2.48
1.00
2.64
0.94
2.50
0.96
2.66
0.94
a = 0.93 2.42
0.93
2.61
0.89
2.44
0.94
2.65
0.92
2.60
0.92
2.84
0.88
2.57
0.94
2.79
0.90
2.54
0.92
2.74
0.89
0.83 0.85
2.51 2.21
0.80 0.84
0.91 0.94 0.92 1.75 0.58 0.50 0.49
2.52 2.50 2.74 5.25 0.16 0.50 0.45 15,301
0.91 0.92 0.92 1.39 0.68 0.50 0.50
a = 0.66 2.51 2.19 a = 0.87 2.41 2.44 2.64 4.22 0.22 0.45 0.61 896
Thus, two sets of SEM models were examined. The first set of models focussed on the direct links from ability belief and intrinsic value to dropout status without accounting for educational expectation. The second set of models included direct paths from both ability belief and intrinsic value to dropout status as well as indirect paths through educational expectation. Comparing results from the two sets of SEM models will help establish whether there is any mediating effect of educational expectation. All the analyses were conducted using Mplus 5.1 (Muthe´n & Muthe´n, 1998). Past work (Schumacker & Lomax, 1996) has shown that the chi-square statistic is sensitive to sample size and can result in a high and unwarranted rejection of an acceptable model for large samples. In the present study, therefore, we followed the recommen-
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Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters
dation that a CFI >.90 and an RMSEA
