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Same-Gender Sexual Partnering: A Re-Analysis of Trend Data a

Chris Wienke & Rachel B. Whaley

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Department of Sociology , Southern Illinois University Carbondale Published online: 28 Oct 2013.

Click for updates To cite this article: Chris Wienke & Rachel B. Whaley (2015) Same-Gender Sexual Partnering: A Re-Analysis of Trend Data, The Journal of Sex Research, 52:2, 162-173, DOI: 10.1080/00224499.2013.819066 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00224499.2013.819066

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JOURNAL OF SEX RESEARCH, 52(2), 162–173, 2015 Copyright # The Society for the Scientific Study of Sexuality ISSN: 0022-4499 print=1559-8519 online DOI: 10.1080/00224499.2013.819066

Same-Gender Sexual Partnering: A Re-Analysis of Trend Data Chris Wienke and Rachel B. Whaley

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Department of Sociology, Southern Illinois University Carbondale Numerous studies have been carried out to estimate the prevalence of same-gender sexual behavior. Among studies conducted in recent years, few confirm the commonly quoted figure of 10%. Yet several studies in the early 2000s indicated that the prevalence of same-gender sex may be increasing, especially among women. This article reexamines the trends identified in previous research by using General Social Survey data from 1988 to 2010 and by focusing on multiple measures of same-gender sex over time. Results indicate that for both women and men the likelihood of having had a same-gender sexual partner since age 18 continued to increase through the 2000s, but that the likelihood of having had a same-gender sexual partner in both the past year and in the past five years leveled off for women and reversed for men. Results also indicate that the percentage of people reporting a pattern of predominantly same-gender sexual behavior has neither increased nor decreased over time. A similar result was found among persons who reported being in a same-gender sexual relationship. Overall, results paint a more complex picture than prior studies in characterizing trends in samegender sexual behavior.

A number of studies have been carried out in recent years to estimate the prevalence of same-gender sexual behavior among American men and women. Although estimates from these studies vary, most indicate rates much lower than the widely quoted figure of 10%, an estimate most likely derived from work conducted by Kinsey and his colleagues (1948) more than 65 years ago (Laumann, Gagnon, Michael, & Michaels, 1994; LeVay & Nonas, 1995).1 According to more recent estimates from studies using probability sampling, only about 2% to 4% of sexually active men and 1% to 3% of sexually active women engage in same-gender sex at any given time (Anderson & Stall, 2002; Black, Gates, Sanders, & Taylor, 2000; Butler, 2000; Chandra, Mosher, Copen, & Sionean, 2011; Mosher, Chandra, & Jones, 2005; Horowitz, Weis, & Laflin, 2001; Laumann et al., 1994; Sell & Becker, 2001; Smith, 2006). These national estimates are consistent with figures from local communities in the United States (e.g., Blair, 1999; Guterbock, 1993; Rogers & Turner, 1991; Trocki, 1992), indirect measurements (Aguilar & Hardy, 1993), and Correspondence should be addressed to Chris Wienke, Department of Sociology, Southern Illinois University, Faner Hall 3432, MC 4524, Carbondale, IL 62901. E-mail: [email protected] 1 In actuality, Kinsey and colleagues (1948) estimated that about ‘‘10 percent of . . . males are more or less exclusively homosexual . . . for for at least three years between the ages 16 and 55’’ (p. 651). This figure, which seems dubious given that Kinsey did not use a representative sample of the male population, was later adopted by gay rights activists and taken to mean that one in ten men in the United States is gay (LeVay & Nonas, 1995).

statistics from other countries, including Great Britain, France, Norway, and Denmark (AIDS Investigators, 1992; Biggar & Melbye, 1992; M. Diamond, 1993; Johnson, Wadsworth, Wellings, Bradshaw, & Field, 1992; Kontula, 2004; Melbye & Biggar, 1992; Sandfort, 1998; Sell, Wells, & Wypij, 1995). At the same time, however, evidence suggests that the prevalence of same-gender sexual behavior may be increasing, especially among women (Anderson & Stall, 2002; Butler, 2000, 2005; Hewitt, 1998; Laumann et al., 1994, p. 303; Turner, Danella, & Rogers, 1995, pp. 180–181; Turner, Villarroel, Chromy, Eggleston, & Rogers, 2005; Villarroel et al., 2005). For example, using General Social Survey (GSS) data from 1988 through 2002, Butler (2005) found that the proportion of both men and women who reported having had a samegender sexual partner during the previous year increased over the period, and the increase was greater for women than it was for men. Using the same waves of the GSS, Turner and colleagues (2005) reported a similar trend among persons reporting same-gender sexual partnerships in the past five years and since age 18. In fact, among women, their findings indicated that more recent cohorts are much more likely to report having had a same-gender sex partner since age 18 than are older cohorts, despite having had a shorter period of opportunity. This trend also extends beyond the United States. For example, in Great Britain, a similar trend in reported same-gender sex occurred between 1990 and

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2000—again, with women leading the way (Johnson et al., 2001). The causes of this apparent upward trend are not entirely clear, though researchers have attributed it to a number of changes in the social environment, including changing public attitudes, which have become more tolerant of same-gender sexual relations in recent years (Anderson & Stall, 2002; Butler, 2000, 2005; Turner et al., 2005), the increased visibility of lesbian, gay, and bisexual persons, communities, and institutions (Butler, 2000, 2005; Hewitt, 1998), a decline in criminal sanctions against same-gender sex (Butler, 2000; Hewitt, 1998), more legal protections and employee benefits for persons in same-gender relationships (Butler, 2000, 2005), and the decreasing power of parents to control their adult children’s dating and relationship decisions, which may have kept young adults from forming same-gender relationships in the past (Rosenfeld, 2007). Another social change that coincides with the upward trend in reported same-gender sexual behavior is the growing tendency for women to obtain financial independence, an occurrence which has given women more control over their life choices than they had before. This may explain why the change in the prevalence of reported same-gender sex was greater among women in the 1990s than it was among men (Butler, 2005). Of course, it is also possible that the increased reporting of same-gender sex simply reflects a change in response bias and thus a shift in the willingness of respondents to report same-gender sexual encounters. A greater willingness of people to disclose same-gender sexual experience can be expected to occur with greater societal tolerance (Kontula, 2004). However, according to Butler (2000), this possibility is less likely because data from the GSS show that the tendency for people to report no sexual partners or to not answer questions about the gender of their partners has not changed since the late 1980s, while the tendency for people to report exclusively male–female partnerships has declined since then. Further, as Turner and colleagues (2005) pointed out, if changes in response bias due to growing social tolerance are responsible for the rise in reported same-gender sex, we should see identical trends for both men and women, which is not what the data show.2 Butler (2000, 2005) also found little support for the possibility that changes in the demographic composition of the population led to an increase in the reporting of same-gender sex. Whatever the reason, the upward trend in reported same-gender sexual partnering has important implications in terms of estimating the prevalence of same-gender sex. Although current estimates indicate that same-gender sexual behavior is relatively rare, and limited to a small percentage of men and women, 2 That said, it is possible that changes in societal tolerance vary for male–male and female–female sexual relations, and thus equivalent trends may not be expected.

the reporting of such behavior is less rare than it used to be, and it may be even less rare in the future, if current trends hold. Accordingly, it is important for sex researchers to continue to explore the prevalence of same-gender sex using available trend data. This is especially important given that the data used in the most recent published research exploring this historical trend are now nearly a decade old (Butler, 2005; Turner et al., 2005). Thus, one objective of the present study was to examine changes in the reporting of same-gender sexual partnering since 2002, the last year in which GSS data were used by researchers to track this phenomenon over time. By adding data from the 2004 through 2010 GSS, we replicate and extend prior work to see if the trend identified in reported same-gender sex has continued into the recent years for which data are available and whether the trend differs for women and men. We do not attempt a replication of all aspects of prior studies—for example, whether trends vary across age and racial=ethnic groups (Butler, 2005) or across birth cohorts (Turner et al., 2005). Instead, we focus only on whether the prevalence of reported same-gender sexual partnering changed in the United States over the 1988 to 2010 period and if the magnitude of the change varied between women and men. The second objective of this study was to examine historical trends in reported same-gender sex focusing on variations in different characteristics of same-gender sexual behavior. As sex researchers have long observed, men and women who engage in same-gender sexual activity vary in the extent, duration, and timing of such activity (Hewitt, 1998; Laumann et al., 1994). In fact, this was a major point of emphasis by Kinsey and his colleagues (1948) and is reflected in the well-known Kinsey scale, which measures sexual behavior on a continuum from 0 to 6, with 0 representing persons with exclusively male–female sexual experiences and 6 representing persons with exclusively same-gender sexual experiences. A limitation of prior trend studies is that researchers tended to treat same-gender sexual partnering as a single phenomenon, neglecting social and behavior differences among people whose sexual histories encompass varying degrees of same-gender sexual behavior (Anderson & Stall, 2002; Butler, 2000, 2005; Turner et al., 2005). Using the available measures, researchers created their estimates based on any samegender sexual activity reported in the past year, past five years, or since age 18, whether or not such activity was a one-time experience, episodic, or more consistent and exclusive. As a result, it is not clear whether the historical trends identified in prior research apply in the same way to people with diverse histories of same-gender sexual behavior. It may be that trends over time vary between those who exhibit a relatively stable pattern of same-gender sexual behavior and those whose same-gender sexual behavior is intermittent, incidental, or infrequent. 163

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In fact, the methodology used in previous trend studies may partly explain why the reported increase of same-gender sexual partnering has been greater for women over time than for men. In general, women’s histories of same-gender sexual behavior differ from men’s histories (L. Diamond, 2008; Laumann et al., 1994). For example, among persons who report having had at least one same-gender partner in their lifetime, women are much more likely than men to report having had both male and female partners (Laumann et al., 1994). Women also appear to be more likely than their male counterparts to ‘‘experiment’’ with same-gender sex, especially during youth and early adulthood (Butler, 2005; Chandra et al., 2011; L. Diamond, 2008; Mosher et al., 2005).3 Such differences, if they do exist, should be reflected in women’s and men’s reporting of same-gender sexual activity. Perhaps one reason that women’s reports of same-gender sex have increased more than men’s reports is because the patterns of same-gender sexual experience that are more typical of women (less exclusive, more experimental) have become more prevalent over time than those that are more typical of men (more exclusive, less experimental). Only studies that consider variations in different characteristics of same-gender sexual behavior can fully explore this possibility. In this study, we examined trends between 1988 and 2010 in ‘‘any same-gender sexual behavior’’ and ‘‘predominantly same-gender sexual behavior.’’ By ‘‘any same-gender sexual behavior,’’ we mean persons who report having have had at least one same-gender sexual partnership in the past year, past five years, or since age 18. By ‘‘predominantly same-gender sexual behavior,’’ we mean persons whose sexual partner history consists largely of same-gender partners, thus strongly suggesting a same-gender sexual orientation. For practical reasons related to data availability, the latter refers to any persons who report having had equal or more same-gender sexual partners than different-gender sexual partners since age 18 and only same-gender partners in the past five years. This categorization, which others have used (e.g., Badgett, 2001; Black, Makar, Sanders, & Taylor, 2003; Wienke & Hill, 2009), is based on two assumptions: (1) that in a heteronormative culture, relatively few persons with a male–female sexual orientation ever have sexual relations with someone of the same gender, but it is not unusual for persons with a same-gender sexual orientation to have had a different-gender sexual partner at some point; and (2) if someone has had equal or more 3 In earlier surveys, including a 1970 Kinsey Institute survey (see Turner et al., 1995), a higher percentage of men than women appear to have experimented with same-gender sex in their youth. But more recent surveys (Chandra et al., 2011; Mosher et al., 2005), as well as cultural and media trends (Butler, 2005), suggest that the reverse is true today, as same-gender sexual experimentation is more prevalent among young women than it is among young men.

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same-gender sexual partners than different-gender sexual partners since age 18, and exclusively same-gender sexual encounters in the past five years, he or she is unlikely to have a male–female sexual orientation. We also examine trends over time in the reporting of same-gender sexual ‘‘relationships.’’ In the GSS, respondents who report having had at least one sexual partner in the past year are also asked whether one of their partners was their husband, wife, or regular sexual partner. Using this information, we can ascertain whether persons reporting predominantly same-gender sexual behavior were also in a same-gender sexual relationship at some point in the past year. If reported same-gender sexual partnering has increased over time, as prior studies suggest, it will be of interest to see whether the increase extends to sexual relationships, in addition to sexual encounters. The available evidence suggests that it should. For example, according to data from the U.S. Census, the number of reported same-gender couple households has risen sharply since 1990, the first year in which the census began to distinguish ‘‘unmarried partners’’ from ordinary roommates (Rosenfeld, 2007). Further, researchers have documented in the post-AIDS era an increased desire among men who have sex with men to be in long-term, committed relationships (Davidson, 1991). In theory, given recent social changes, we should expect to see an upward trend in the reporting of each of these characteristics of same-gender sexual behavior (any, predominant, and relationship), and this trend should be seen across the historical period of interest. In fact, many of the social changes that may have contributed to the upward trend in the reporting of same-gender sex in the 1990s have continued unabated in the 2000s. For example, according to GSS data from 2010, more than 40% of respondents now approve of sexual relations between two adults of the same gender. That figure is up from 26% in 2000 and just 12% in 1990 (Smith, 2011). Also in 2010, and for the first time in the history of the GSS, a narrow plurality of respondents expressed approval for same-gender marriage (Smith, 2011). In addition, persons in same-gender partnerships have continued to enjoy social and legal gains, including increasingly favorable legislation for same-gender unions (Human Rights Campaign, 2010). Conversely, if we find that trends in the reporting of predominantly same-gender sexual behavior and=or same-gender relationships differ from trends in the reporting of any same-gender sexual activity, it may be because different characteristics of same-gender sexual behavior are more or less malleable in response to changing social conditions. Method Data and Sample This study utilized 14 waves of the GSS currently available via Inter-university Consortium for Political

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and Social Research, including 1988 (when some of the sexual behavior questions were first asked) through 2010. For the trend design, cross-sectional samples were drawn for each survey year using probability sampling methods to ensure representative samples of the adult, English- and Spanish-speaking (starting in 2006) population residing in households (for details on GSS methodology, see Smith, Marsden, Hout, & Kim, 2011). The 14 wave pooled sample contains 33,212 respondents. The sexual behavior questions were introduced to the GSS in different waves (and thus the N varies accordingly) and were included in a confidential self-administered questionnaire that was in paper-andpencil format until 2004 when a computer questionnaire was introduced. The sample for our analyses was based on valid data for the sexual behavior questions of interest and thus is smaller than the overall sample and varies in size depending on the specific dependent measure used. As Turner et al. (2005) reported, we also found considerable missing data in terms of participation in the sexual behavior questionnaire. More specifically, about 80% of the 33,212 had valid data for number of sex partners in the past year, a question that preceded the question about gender of partners. Similarly, about 77% of 28,822 (the sample for 1991 to 2010) had valid data for number of partners in the past five years. But, for example, of the respondents with a partner in the past five years, only 1.6% were missing on the gender of their partners; 82% of the 31,731 respondents in the 1989 to 2010 waves answered the questions regarding number of male and female sex partners since age 18, though some offered unusable data (e.g., illegibility) reducing the valid responses to about 75%. We used the maximum available sample size for each dependent variable instead of the lowest common denominator; analysis-specific Ns are provided in specific tables. Samples available for cross-tabulations (by gender and year) are slightly larger than samples available for multivariate analyses, as missing data on control variables further reduced the sample size by 82 to 117 respondents (less than 1%), depending on the number of available waves. Dependent variables. Respondents who reported a sexual partner in the past year (first asked in 1988) and past five years were asked whether their partners were exclusively male, both male and female, or exclusively female. We used this question to identify respondents who reported at least one same-gender sexual relationship in the past year (coded 1) and those who reported only different-gender sexual partners (coded 0). Persons with no partners were coded as missing. Pooled across the survey years, about 2.6% of 11,471 women (weighted sample size) and 3.1% of 10,342 men (weighted sample size) reported at least one same-gender partner in the past year. The question about sexual partners in the past five years was worded the same

and was first asked in 1991. About 3.6% of 10,655 women (weighted) and 3.8% of 9,534 men (weighted) reported at least one same-gender partner in the past five years. Beginning in 1989, respondents were asked in separate questions, ‘‘Now thinking about the time since your 18th birthday (including the past 12 months), how many female (male) partners have you had sex with?’’ Among those with at least one partner, 5.4% of 11,024 men and 5.3% of 13,140 women reported at least one samegender sexual partner since age 18. Using these questions we also identified respondents who reported (1) more same-gender sexual partners than different-gender sexual partners or an equal number of same- and different-gender sexual partners and (2) exclusive samegender partnering in the past five years (coded 1 on this measure with those not meeting these criteria coded 0). Among those reporting at least one partner since age 18, we identified 179 men (2.2% of 8,308) and 142 women (1.5% of 9,446) who presented a sexual history that predominantly consisted of same-gender sexual partnering. Our final measure was designed to identify those with this history and a ‘‘regular’’ sexual partner (coded 1). Respondents were asked if any of their sexual partners in the past year were also ‘‘regular’’ sexual partners. Approximately 1.6% of men (129=7,864) and 1.4% of women (128=8,869) met all three criteria. Control variables. Our goal was not to explain who reports a same-gender sexual partner but to examine changes in various measures of same-gender sexua partnering over time. We did, however, include demographic control variables in our multivariate analyses to make sure that slight variation in the demographics of the population over time did not account for changes in the percentage reporting same- and different-gender sexual partnering. We followed Butler’s (2000) precedent here and included the same controls that she identified as important. We included age measured in years and race measured with a dichotomous dummy coded variable (1 ¼ White). We measured respondents’ educational attainment through a set of dummy variables representing less than high school (the reference category), high school degree or some college, and college degree or more. Respondents’ mother’s education was measured similarly but with an additional dummy coded variable coded 1 if mother’s education was missing (to prevent loss of sample). Finally, we included a dummy set for type of community that the respondent resided in at age 16. There was a dummy variable for residing in a rural community (reference category), a town, a city with a population of 50,000 or more, and a suburb. Analytic Strategy The GSS uses a complex sampling design to develop a sample representative of households. We used the GSS provided variable, WTSSALL, to adjust for changes 165

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Table 1. Weighted Percentage of Respondents With at Least One Same-Gender Sex Partner in the Past Year, Past Five Years, and Since Age 18 by Gender In Past Year

1988

1989

1990

1991

1993

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Men % AR WN v2 ¼ 39.39 Women % AR WN v2 ¼ 69.44 In past five years Men % AR WN v2 ¼ 24.90 Women % AR WN v2 ¼ 45.86 Since age 18 Men % AR WN v2 ¼ 34.19 Women % AR WN v2 ¼ 66.75

2.6 (.7) 505

1.7 (1.9) 526

2.0 (1.4) 452

2.6 (.6) 457

2.0 (1.5) 539

2.5 (1.1) 1029

4.1 (1.9) 1061

4.4 (2.4) 900

4.2 (2.0) 900

3.7 (1.1) 886

2.9 (.4) 872

4.6 (2.8) 882

1.8 (2.0) 707

1.5 (2.5) 715

.2 (3.6) 551

1.6 (1.6) 574

.6 (2.8) 489

.4 (3.4) 547

2.2 (.6) 628

2.5 (.1) 1144

3.0 (.8) 1073

3.0 (1.0) 1052

4.4 (3.7) 981

3.2 (1.2) 842

1.0 (3.2) 961

3.7 (2.4) 1017

3.7 (2.1) 748

3.4 (1.5) 758

1991 3.9 (.2) 507

1993 2.2 (2.0) 580

1994 3.7 (.3) 1092

1996 5.0 (2.3) 1129

1998 4.2 (.6) 956

2000 5.0 (2.0) 964

2002 4.0 (.3) 934

2004 3.8 (.0) 925

2006 4.3 (.9) 951

2008 2.3 (2.3) 748

2010 2.0 (2.7) 749

1.1 (3.4) 610

2.6 (1.4) 682

3.1 (1.1) 1268

3.5 (.2) 1157

3.4 (.5) 1124

5.6 (3.5) 1062

4.6 (1.7) 1009

1.7 (3.5) 1018

5.0 (2.5) 1087

4.0 (.5) 804

4.3 (1.1) 834

1989 5.5 (.0) 587

1990 4.8 (.6) 495

1991 4.1 (1.4) 515

1993 2.6 (3.2) 623

1994 5.1 (.4) 1108

1996 4.7 (1.2) 1096

1998 4.6 (1.2) 1006

2000 6.3 (1.3) 934

2002 5.7 (.4) 1006

2004 5.4 (.0) 995

2006 5.6 (.3) 1035

2008 8.6 (4.2) 814

2010 6.4 (1.3) 808

5.8 (.6) 671

2.5 (3.0) 553

2.3 (3.5) 652

3.8 (1.9) 785

3.4 (3.2) 1312

4.7 (1.0) 1253

5.6 (.4) 1243

6.6 (2.1) 1113

5.4 (.1) 1193

4.8 (.8) 1156

7.1 (3.1) 1297

6.0 (.1) 934

8.4 (4.5) 978

Note. Separate chi-square tests of same gender sexual behaviors by year by gender. Percentages are presented with adjusted residuals (AR) in parentheses followed by the weighted N (WN) and chi-square value.  p < .01.

in the sampling design with the 2004 wave and to adjust for number of adults in a household (to account for varying probabilities of individuals being selected from smaller versus larger households). To examine variation in the reporting of same-gender sexual partnering by year and gender of respondent, we conducted contingency table analyses and used Pearson’s chi-square to test for significance. We also examined adjusted standardized residuals for each cell to pinpoint the major sources of significant associations. We present sexual partnering data for each survey year in Table 1 but also discuss average patterns seen over three survey time periods. To examine trends over time we also conducted a series of logistic regressions (because all dependent measures were dichotomous) where we regressed each dependent measure on a set of dummy variables for time period that represented several adjacent survey waves, and on age, age squared, a dummy variable for White, and sets of dummy variables for residence at 16, respondents’ educational attainment, and mother’s educational attainment. We first created a categorical variable for survey time period coded 1 ¼ 1988 to 1994, 2 ¼ 1996 to 2002, 3 ¼ 2004 to 2010, and then we computed a set of dummy variables representing those periods. The first two time periods were examined as such by Turner and colleagues (2005); the third is our extension of 166

their series. The first time period contains six, five, or three waves of the GSS (depending on the dependent variable); the second and third time periods each include four waves of data. In the multivariate analyses, we prefer the use of time period dummy variables over treating year as a continuous variable, as the latter might overemphasize year-to-year fluctuations in the relatively rare event (reporting a same-gender sexual partner). Using the time period dummy variables, we were able to determine whether the odds of same-gender sexual partnering were significantly higher or lower in each time period relative to the others. We present results of the logistic regressions in summary form, providing odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals only for the survey period dummy variables, as we were not interested in the pattern of significance for the control variables—only that their variation was held constant. Full results are available upon request.

Results In the pooled sample, age ranged from 18 to 89 with an average of 44.8 years (SD ¼ 16.9). Almost 18% of respondents reported less than a high school degree for educational attainment; 57% reported a high school

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degree or some college; and 25.3% had a college (or higher) degree. Approximately 27.6% of respondents lived in a rural community at age 16; 30% lived in a town; 30% in a city with a population of 50,000 or more; and 12% in a suburb. A total of 45% of respondents reported their mother’s educational attainment as less than a high school degree; 44% reported that their mother had a high school degree or some college; and 10% reported that their mother had a college degree (or more). Across all survey years, about 80% of respondents reported their race as White.

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Trends in Reporting at Least One Same-Gender Partner Table 1 includes the percentages of men and women who reported at least one same-gender sexual partner in the past year, in the past five years, and since age 18 for each survey year. Survey year and same-gender sexual partnering are significantly associated in all three cases, as indicated by significant chi-square values (p < .001). Negative and positive adjusted standardized residuals (AR) larger than 2.0 (absolute value), respectively, indicate cells where significantly fewer or significantly more respondents reported at least one same-gender sexual partner than expected if survey year were unassociated with sexual partnering. The general trends are difficult to see in these contingency tables due to year-to-year fluctuations, so we focus next on the three survey time periods. For comparability, we collapsed survey years into three groups per Turner et al. (2005), because this allows description of general patterns. These analyses are discussed in the text but not presented in tabular form. For example, 2.3% (AR ¼ 3.5) of men pooled across 1988 to 1994 reported at least one same-gender sexual partner in the past year, compared to 4.1% (AR ¼ 4.4) of men from 1996 to 2002 and only 2.8% (AR ¼ 1.1) of men from 2004 to 2010. Note that the details of Table 1 suggest that much of the decline in the reporting of same-gender sexual partnering in the third time period occurred in 2008 and 2010. Among women, 1.4% (AR ¼ 5.6) reported at least one same-gender partner in the past year in the six earliest surveys compared to 3.4% (AR ¼ 4.1) in the middle surveys, and 2.9% (AR ¼ 1.5) in the latter years. For women, there appears to be an increase from the earliest to the middle survey years with a stable trend continuing into the latter years (this is especially evident if the anomalous finding for 2004 is ignored, yielding a percent of 3.6% for the final years). A similar pattern emerges when we examine partnering in the past five years. As previously, there appears to be a curvilinear pattern to men’s partners such that there is an increase in men reporting same-gender partners from the earliest years to the middle years and then a decrease in the latter years. The pooled data provide the following percentages for men in the three time per-

iods: 3.3% (AR ¼ 1.4), 4.6% (AR ¼ 3.3), and 3.2% (AR ¼ 2.2). Table 1 reveals the detailed changes and again suggests that the decline in the latter period is largely due to declining reports of same-gender sexual partnering among men in 2008 and 2010. The pattern for women mirrors their pattern for the past year; reports of same-gender sexual partnering in the past five years increase in the middle years and then remain relatively stable into the most recent time period.4 A better understanding of the trends in same-gender sexual partnering may be evident with reports of sexual behavior since age 18 instead of in the past year and past five years. As Turner and colleagues (2005) contended, both sexual behavior and partner acquisition are highly related to age; thus a longer time span (the average age of GSS respondents across all survey years is about 45) may yield more informative data when assessing trends over time. Our same-gender prevalence figures mirror those reported in Turner et al. (2005), and provide evidence that the upward trend identified in their work continued into the most recent time period. The average percentage of women reporting at least one same-gender sexual partner since the age of 18 is 3.6% (AR ¼ 5.6) for the years 1989 to 1994, 5.5% (AR ¼ .9) for 1996 to 2002, and 6.5% (AR ¼ 4.5) for the latter years. Similarly, the average percentage of men reporting at least one same-gender sexual partner since the age of 18 is 4.6%, 5.3%, and 6.4%, respectively, with similar adjusted residuals. Further, the percentage of men reporting at least one same-gender partner since age 18 in the 2008 and 2010 surveys combined is about 7.5%. Thus, while data for the past year and past five years suggest a decline in the percentage of men who report a same-gender sexual partner, the data for sexual activity since the age of 18 suggest the percentage is increasing. It may be, as Turner and colleagues (2005) pointed out, that lifetime experiences since age 18 are, in fact, more useful in tracking trends over time than reports in the past year or past five years, and thus the difference in the measurements used explain this pattern. It does not seem likely that any changes in the age distribution of the samples over time can explain this

4 Butler (2000) found no significant change in the percentage of respondents reporting no partners in the past year between 1988 and 1998, which she examined to rule out the impact of changes in partnering on the reporting of same-gender sexual behavior. Butler (2005) found very small but significant increases in the percentage of men and women reporting no partners in the past year when she extended the trend out to 2002. We found that 13.8% (AR ¼ .2) of men and 21.9% (AR ¼ 1.4) of women reported no partner between 1988 and 1996, compared to 13.2% (AR ¼ 1.6) of men and 20.7% (AR ¼ 11.1) of women between 1998 and 2002 and 14.8% (AR ¼ 1.9) of men and 21.1% (AR ¼ .3) of women between 2004 and 2010. Analyses by actual survey year confirm that no significant changes in the prevalence of ‘‘not partnering’’ occurred in the latter years of interest, and thus the trends in ‘‘not partnering’’ cannot explain the decrease in men’s reports of same-gender sex in the past year and past five years.

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pattern. However, to rule that out, we conducted multivariate analyses to further isolate the trends. The multivariate analyses confirm a linear increase in the odds of reporting at least one same-gender sexual partner since age 18 for both men and women between the late 1980s and 2010. We conducted a series of logistic regressions where we predicted the odds of reporting at least one same-gender sexual partner since 18 (and separately for in the past year and past five years) on dummy variables representing survey time period, and a set of demographic controls including race, age, age squared, education, residence at 16, and mother’s education. As seen in the first panel of Table 2, the odds for women reporting at least one same-gender partner since age 18 are much higher in the two later time periods than the 1989 to 1994 period (odds ratios larger than 1.0 indicate a positive effect of a variable on the odds of same-gender sex, while odds ratios smaller than 1.0 indicate a negative effect). The odds that a woman reports a same-gender sexual partner are 58% higher in the middle period and 94% higher in the most recent time period compared to the earliest. Further, as seen in second column where we changed the reference category, the odds of reporting at least one same-gender partner are 23% higher in the most recent years (2004 to 2010) than the middle years. For men, the odds of Table 2.

reporting at least one same-gender partner since age 18, controlling for demographic factors, is higher in 2004 to 2010 than both the 1989 to 1994 time period (column 3, OR ¼ 1.43, p < .01) and the 1996 to 2002 time period (column 4, OR ¼ 1.22, p < .05). Thus, the multivariate findings mirror the bivariate findings, suggesting an increasing likelihood in the reporting of same-gender sexual partnering since the age of 18 over time. Table 2 also provides the results for the past year and for the past five years. Recall that bivariate analyses suggested a curvilinear pattern with regard to year for men reporting for the past year and the past five years (where the percentage increased and then leveled off with a decline in the most recent surveys). Multivariate results confirmed these initial findings. The odds of men reporting a same-gender sexual partner in the past year were 82% higher in the 1996 to 2002 time period than the earliest period, but there was no difference in the odds between 1989 to 1994 and 2004 to 2010, suggesting an upside-down U shape in the relationship between year and the odds of same-gender sexual partnering. Also showing a downward slope, the odds of reporting a same-gender partner in the past year significantly declined between 1996 to 2002 and 2004 to 2010 (column 4, OR ¼ .68, p < .01). The same pattern emerged for partnering in the past five years for men.

Multivariate Logistic Regressions of Same-Gender Sexual Behaviors on Time Period and Controls Women

Survey Time Period

ORs (95% CI)

Any same-gender behavior since age 18 1989–1994 — 1996–2002 1.58 (1.28–1.95) 2004–2010 1.94 (1.57–2.39) WN Any same-gender behavior in the past year 1988–1994 — 1996–2002 2.27 (1.66–3.11) 2004–2010 1.95 (1.40–2.72) WN Any same-gender behavior in the past five years 1991–1994 — 1996–2002 1.68 (1.26–2.55) 2004–2010 1.51 (1.11–2.05) WN More same-gender behavior since age 18 and exclusive 1991–1994 — 1996–2002 1.55 (.95–2.52) 2004–2010 1.52 (.92–2.49) WN More same-gender behavior since age 18 and exclusive 1991–1994 — 1996–2002 1.36 (.83–2.24) 2004–2010 1.23 (.74–2.04) WN

Men ORs (95% CI)

ORs (95% CI)

.63 (.51–.78) — 1.23 (1.03–1.46)

— 1.18 (.95–1.46) 1.43 (1.16–1.78)

13,376

ORs (95% CI)

.85 1.22

(.68–1.05) — (1.00–1.48)

10,531 .44 (.32–.60) — .86 (.66–1.12)

.55 (.42–.72) — .68 (.52–.89)

— 1.82 (1.39–2.40) 1.25 (.91–1.70)

10,970

9,714 .59 (.44–.79) — .90 (.71–1.13)



1.37 .94

— (1.04–1.81) (.70–1.28)

.73 (.55–.96) — .69 (.54–.88)

10,448 9,030 same-gender behavior in the past five years .65 (.40–1.05) — .71 (.47–1.06) — 1.40 (.94–2.10) — .98 (.68–1.41) 1.17 (.76–1.79) .83 (.59–1.16) 9,242 7,865 same-gender behavior in the past five years and regular partner in the past year .73 (.45–1.20) — .66 (.40–1.08) — 1.51 (.93–2.47) — .90 (.61–1.33) 1.29 (.77–2.16) .85 (.58–1.26) 8,432 7,283

Note. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (95% CI) presented for five weighted multivariate logistic regressions of same-gender sexual behaviors on time period dummy variables, and controls (White, Age, Age2, Education, Mother’s education, Residential community type at age 16). Odds ratios for control variables are not presented due to space limitations. WN ¼ Weighted N.  p < .05;  p < .01.

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For women, the bivariate trend appeared to be one of an increasing likelihood in the reporting of same-gender partners in the past year and past five years, which then levels off and appears relatively stable in the latter years. Again, the multivariate results mirrored the bivariate results. For women, the trend is clearly positive. The odds that women report a same gender partner in the past year are 127% greater in the 1996 to 2002 period than the 1988 to 1994 period. They are also 95% greater in the most recent time period compared to the earliest. The difference in the odds of reporting in the most recent compared to the middle period are not significant (column 2, OR ¼ .86, n.s.). The same pattern is evident for women reporting on the past five years. To be thorough, we did run these logistic regressions with a continuous measure of year and its quadratic. The substantive conclusions are the same, and tables are available upon request. Trends in Reporting Predominantly Same-Gender Sexual Partnering The relative numbers of reported same- and differentgender sexual partners is the starting place for our measure of predominantly same-gender sexual partnering, which may be more indicative of a same-gender sexual orientation than simply noting at least one same-gender sexual partner. For the next analyses, we used our measure that differentiated between those who reported more same-gender partners or equal numbers of sameand different-gender partners since age 18 and who reported same-gender partnering exclusivity in the past five years (coded 1) and those who do not meet these criteria (coded 0). This view of behavioral patterns adds important nuance to our measure of having at least one same-gender sexual partner since age 18. Those who reported at least one same-gender sexual partner (see Table 1) are now categorized in terms of the relative number of same- and different-gender sexual partners Table 3. Sex

and thus could be coded 0 or 1 depending on relative number of partners and reports of partners in the past five years. Unfortunately, the sample sizes vary between Table 1 and Table 3, because in the former we needed valid data only on the question regarding the number of same-gender partners, while here we need valid data on both same- and different-gender partners since 18 as well as data on exclusivity in the past five years. As seen in panel A of Table 3, the percentage of men and women who meet these criteria appears to be independent of time. The year-specific percentages do not show much fluctuation and v2 tests suggest that this type of reported partnering is not significantly associated with year for either men or women. In the earliest surveys (1991 to 1994), about 2% of men and 1% of women meet the criteria for predominantly same-gender sexual partnering, compared to about 2.5% of men and 1.6% of women in the middle survey years (1996 to 2002), and 2.1% of men and 1.7% of women in the final years. In panel B of Table 3, we add the criteria of having reported a ‘‘regular sexual partner’’ among partners in the past year. In other words, this group is delineated by reporting more same-gender partners than different or equal numbers of same and different since 18, reporting having exclusively same-gender partners in the past five years, and reporting having a regular partner in the past year. Though not a perfect measure, it gets close to identifying those currently in a ‘‘regular’’ same-gender sexual relationship with a history of predominantly same-gender sexual partners. Pooled across all survey years from 1991 to 2010, about 1.6% of men and 1.4% of women meet these criteria. Again, the prevalence of this phenomenon appears to be independent of survey year. The percentage of men and women in this group has not changed significantly over time and, in fact, is about the same for both men and women. Though the percentage of respondents who report having predominantly same-gender partners with and without specifying the regular partner attribute is quite

Weighted Percentage of Respondents With a Same-Gender Sexual Orientation by Gender 1991

1993

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

A. More same-gender partners since age 18 and exclusively same-gender partnering in past five years Men % 1.4 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 2.6 2.9 2.5 1.2 1.2 WN 441 524 928 922 829 798 816 838 881 662 669 v2 ¼ 16.49, n.s. Women % .2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.0 .9 2.0 2.0 2.0 WN 535 616 1068 973 1015 878 943 940 1007 736 735 v2 ¼ 16.83, n.s. B. More same-gender partners since age 18, exclusively same-gender partnering in past five years, and reported a ‘‘regular’’ partner in the past year Men % 1.0 .8 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.0 .8 WN 388 484 869 870 767 743 764 780 801 618 628 v2 ¼ 14.97, n.s. Women % .2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.9 .8 2.0 1.8 1.8 WN 478 568 966 909 931 798 863 884 920 666 655 v2 ¼ 14.86, n.s. Note. Chi-square tests of same-gender sexual behavior by year by gender. WN ¼ weighted N.

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small and appears to be independent of time, we did regress these dependent variables on the survey time period dummy variables and the demographic controls. The multivariate analyses confirmed the bivariate; the odds of ‘‘predominantly same-gender sexual behavior’’ are not significantly different across the three survey year periods, net the effects of control variables. This is the case for both women and men. The results are the same for reporting predominantly same-gender sexual partners and also reporting a current ‘‘regular’’ same-gender relationship; the odds of meeting these criteria have not changed over time.

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Discussion Previous research suggests that same-gender sexual behavior may be becoming more prevalent over time. Although the evidence for this is complicated by methodological limitations, studies have shown that the proportion of U.S. adults who reported having had a same-gender sexual partner, whether in the past year, the past five years, or since age 18, increased significantly from the late 1980s to the early 2000s, especially among women (Anderson & Stall, 2002; Butler, 2000, 2005; Laumann et al., 1994, p. 303; Turner et al., 1995, pp. 180–181; Turner et al., 2005; Villarroel et al., 2005). Further, this reported change in sexual behavior coincided with other changes that may have made it easier for Americans to consider partners of their own gender, including growing tolerance toward same-gender sexual relations, a reduction in criminal sanctions against same-gender sex, and more legal protections for people in same-gender unions (Butler, 2000, 2005; Turner et al. 2005). To the extent that these trends are related, it is not unreasonable to speculate, as Butler (2005) has, that ‘‘the upward trend in same[gender] sexual partnering found for the 1988 to 2002 period will continue beyond the year 2002 for both men and women’’ (p. 442). Having the benefit of newer data unavailable to Butler and others, and by focusing on different characteristics of same-gender sexual behavior, we are in position to address the speculation as well as to suggest some refinements in earlier assessments. In our first set of analyses, we replicated and extended prior research by adding data from the GSS 2004 to 2010 and examining trends among men and women who reported having had at least one same-gender sexual partner (in the past year, past five years, or since age 18). Our findings confirm that an upward trend in the reporting of samegender sexual partnering occurred during the 1990s, as previous studies show, and that the trend was more pronounced among women than among men. However, our findings from the 2000s paint a more complex picture. On one hand, we found that for both men and women the likelihood of having had a same-gender sex partner since age 18 continued to increase in recent years, 170

though the magnitude of the change did not vary by gender. For men, the percentage increased from 5.3% for the 1996 to 2002 period to 6.4% for the 2004 to 2010 period. For women, the percentage increased from 5.5% for the 1996 to 2002 period to 6.5% for the 2004 to 2010 period. Given the total time period in question (1989 to 2010), this trend far exceeds fluctuations that could be attributed to sampling error and suggests that reported same-gender sexual partnering since age 18 is, in fact, becoming more prevalent over time. On the other hand, we found that the likelihood of having had a same-gender sex partner in both the past year and in the past five years leveled off for women during the 2000s and reversed for men. Whether this represents a true historical shift, a temporary fluctuation of the long-term trend, or an artifact related to measurement is uncertain, particularly in light of men’s anomalous reports in 2008 and 2010. However, the newer data do suggest that the trends identified by other researchers regarding the reporting of same-gender partners in the past year and the past five years are neither as strong nor as consistent as the earlier evidence indicated, especially for men. What explains these seemingly conflicting findings? One interpretation is that for many of the respondents, their experience(s) with same-gender sex took place many years earlier in their lives, even decades earlier, as increasing proportions of them across the survey years reported having had a same-gender sexual partner(s) at some point in adulthood (i.e., since age 18) but not increasingly so in the recent past (i.e., the past year or the past five years). It may be that men and women in the most recent period are more likely than their counterparts in earlier periods to experiment with same-gender sex, but they are no more likely, and maybe even less likely in the case of men, to do so on a regular or even an occasional basis once they have tried it. Our second set of analyses focused on what we refer to as ‘‘predominantly same-gender sexual behavior’’— that is, persons whose sexual history with same-gender partners is relatively consistent and exclusive, and thus suggests a same-gender sexual orientation. In contrast to our first set of analyses, we found that the percentage of people reporting predominantly same-gender sexual partners has neither increased nor decreased since the early 1990s, at least not significantly. Instead, the proportion of the population classified as having a same-gender sexual orientation has remained relatively stable over time, a pattern that holds for both men and women. This finding is illuminating because it suggests that this particular pattern of same-gender sexual behavior may be less malleable in response to changing sociocultural and situational factors than other patterns. We documented a similar finding among persons reporting predominantly same-gender sexual behavior who also report having a regular sexual partner, our proxy for being in a same-gender relationship. The

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proportion of adults reporting a same-gender relationship neither increased nor decreased between 1991 and 2010. Again, the same finding extends to both men and women. This suggests that the reporting of predominantly same-gender sexual behavior either with or without a regular partner, and for both men and women, is unrelated to survey year, and thus the potential effects of changing social norms, laws, and policies. At first glance, this is surprising given evidence from U.S. Census data on the rising number of same-gender couple households (Rosenfeld, 2007), research showing a growing desire among men who have sex with men to be in long-term, committed relationships (Davidson, 1991), as well as the growing availability of legal protections and benefits for same-gender couples, including marriage (Human Rights Campaign, 2010). However, it is also likely that our measure of same-gender relationships, which required respondents to have a history of predominantly same-gender sexual behavior as well as a regular sexual partner, limited our ability to detect changes in the reporting of same-gender relationships over time. It should be emphasized that this study has focused exclusively on the documentation of trends, not on possible causes. Thus, a number of analytical issues need to be addressed. First, why are men in the most recent period less likely to report same-gender sex in the past year and past five years than in the late 1990s and early 2000s? Second, why have women’s reports of samegender sex in the past year and past five years leveled off in the most recent period in comparison to the late 1990s and early 2000s? Third, why is the reporting of predominantly same-gender sexual behavior for both men and women seemingly unrelated to historical period? The growing tendency in recent years for young adults, especially men, to live at home with their parents may provide part of the answer to the first two questions. Recent demographic evidence shows that the percentage of 20- to 34-year-olds living with parents rose from 19% in 2000 to 24% in 2007 to 2009, and that the number of young adults living at home was consistently larger for men than it was for women (Qian, 2012). According to Rosenfeld’s (2007) age of independence theory, young adults who live with their parents are less likely than those who live on their own to form relationships with unconventional sexual partners. Compared to their independent peers, young adults who live at home are more subject to parental control over dating and relationship choices, and thus have less freedom to pursue relationships that do not conform to their parents’ expectations. If so, it is possible that recent shifts in the living arrangements of young adults are contributing to the recent shifts documented in this study in men’s and women’s reporting of samegender sexual partnering in the past year and the past five years.

Regarding the last question, research on adults who have been raised as children by lesbian or gay parents may offer some useful suggestions. For example, in their longitudinal study, Golombok and Tasker (1996) found that young adults from lesbian family backgrounds were more likely to either consider a same-gender relationship or to report having had one than their counterparts from heterosexual family backgrounds, especially if their childhood family environment was characterized by an openness and acceptance of same-gender relationships. However, the authors found no significant differences between young adults from lesbian and heterosexual family backgrounds in the likelihood of reporting predominantly same-gender sexual activity. Such findings suggest that while an association may exist between childhood family environment and children’s willingness to explore same-gender sex, family context and attitudes have no real influence on the sexual orientation of children. A similar pattern may hold with regard to the effects of larger environmental factors on sexual orientation. It may be that even under the best of circumstances, in a utopian society where people are treated equally regardless of their sexual orientation, we would find little change, if any, in the proportion of the adult population that engages in predominantly same-gender sexual activity.

Limitations and Conclusion The findings from this study should be viewed with caution given the following limitations. First, while the GSS is the only ongoing, national, probability-based survey that includes measures for adult sexual behavior at regular, frequent intervals, it contains relatively few questions regarding sexual behavior, which limits what we can track over time. In fact, with the exception of the 2008 wave, which included a special module on sexual identity, the GSS contained no questions related to other dimensions of sexual orientation. Second, none of the questions about sexual behavior in the GSS questionnaire explicitly defines the word sex. As prior research shows, respondents may have widely divergent views about what behaviors do and do not constitute having had ‘‘sex’’ (Sanders & Reinisch, 1999). Third, our sample size from survey to survey of respondents reporting same-gender sex was relatively small. Small sample size decreases statistical power and makes it difficult to detect significant changes over time. Fourth, the GSS includes respondents with missing data, including those lacking information on the gender of their sexual partners. Finally, while the evidence for the sexual behavior patterns described in this study is strong, the causes cannot be determined with the available data. Despite these limitations, this study used the best available data to track the prevalence of various aspects of same-gender sexual behavior over a period of more 171

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than 20 years. In doing so, this article provides a timely and expanded reexamination of trends identified in previous research. Overall, our findings paint a more complex picture than prior studies do in characterizing trends in the reporting of same-gender sexual behavior. Although there appears to be an upward trend in some aspects of same-gender sexual behavior, this is not the case in other aspects of same-gender sexual behavior. At least two general conclusions can be drawn from these findings. First, same-gender sexual behavior is not a single phenomenon with a single history. Second, some aspects of same-gender sexual behavior are more malleable and capable of change over time than other aspects. It behooves sex researchers to continue to pay attention to social and behavior differences among people who have a history of same-gender sexual activity, especially when attempting to estimate the prevalence of same-gender sexual behavior in society. Future research should also consider whether changes have occurred over time in other dimensions of sexual orientation, including reports of same-gender romantic attractions, and if the trends are similar to those observed for same-gender sexual behavior. References Aguilar, S., & Hardy, A. M. (1993). AIDS knowledge and attitudes for 1991: Data from the national health survey. Advance Data, 225, 1–20. AIDS Investigators. (1992). AIDS and sexual behavior in France. Nature, 360, 407–409. Anderson, J. E., & Stall, R. (2002). Increased reporting of male-tomale sexual activity in a national survey. Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 29, 643–646. Badgett, M. V. L. (2001). Money, myths, and change: The economic lives of lesbians and gay men. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Biggar, R. J., & Melbye, M. (1992). Responses to anonymous questionnaires concerning sexual behavior: A method to examine potential biases. American Journal of Public Health, 82, 1506–1512. Black, D., Gates, G., Sanders, S., & Taylor, L. (2000). Demographics of the gay and lesbian population in the United States: Some evidence from available systematic data sources. Demography, 37, 139–154. Black, D., Makar, H., Sanders, S., & Taylor, L. (2003). The earnings effects of sexual orientation. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 56, 449–469. Blair, J. (1999). A probability sample of gay urban males: The use of two-phase adaptive sampling. Journal of Sex Research, 36, 39–44. Butler, A. C. (2000). Trends in same-gender sexual partnering, 1988–1998. Journal of Sex Research, 37, 333–343. Butler, A. C. (2005). Gender differences in the prevalence of same-sex partnering: 1988–2002. Social Forces, 84, 417–446. Chandra, A., Mosher, W. D., Copen, C., & Sionean, C. (2011). Sexual behavior, sexual attraction, and sexual identity in the United States: Data from the 2006–2008 National Survey of Family Growth (National Health Statistics Report, No. 39). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Davidson, A. G. (1991). Looking for love in the age of AIDS: The language of gay personals, 1978–1988. Journal of Sex Research, 28, 125–137. Diamond, L. (2008). Sexual fluidity: Understanding women’s love and desire. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

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