EJINME-02805; No of Pages 1 European Journal of Internal Medicine xxx (2014) xxx
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
European Journal of Internal Medicine journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ejim
Letter to the Editor Research and common sense As far as we understand, Lilli [1] maintains that we may lessen our skepticism toward a research hypothesis following a succession of positive results. He mentions the example of a diagnostic test which unexpectedly turns out positive for a disease the clinician who ordered the test is skeptical about. This is an unlikely situation: as a rule a clinician requires a test when she/he definitely suspects the presence of a given disease on the basis of observed symptoms and signs. A corresponding condition is a clinical study testing a hypothesis with a sizable probability of being correct. This is not the case of medical interventions based on tradition and authority or being in contrast with accepted scientific principles [2]. In such cases the initial probability of the research hypothesis (specific efficacy of the intervention) is unavoidably low. Replicating these studies in order to obtain statistical significance seems a contrived procedure apt to produce false positive results.
References [1] Lilli A. From p-value to Bayesian analysis: should we renounce to study the “unknown”? Eur J Intern Med 2014. [2] Pandolfi M, Carreras G. The faulty statistics of complementary alternative medicine (CAM). Eur J Intern Med 2014;25:607–9.
Maurizio Pandolfi Former Professor of Ophthalmology, University of Lund, Sweden Corresponding author at: Via De' Martelli 7, 50129 Florence, Italy. E-mail address: mauri.pandolfi@gmail.com. Giulia Carreras Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), via delle Oblate 2, 50139 Florence, Italy 29 September 2014 Available online xxxx
Conflict of interests The authors state that they have no conflicts of interest.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2014.10.004 0953-6205/© 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Federation of Internal Medicine.
Please cite this article as: Pandolfi M, Carreras G, Research and common sense, Eur J Intern Med (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.ejim.2014.10.004
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
European Journal of Internal Medicine journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ejim
Letter to the Editor Research and common sense As far as we understand, Lilli [1] maintains that we may lessen our skepticism toward a research hypothesis following a succession of positive results. He mentions the example of a diagnostic test which unexpectedly turns out positive for a disease the clinician who ordered the test is skeptical about. This is an unlikely situation: as a rule a clinician requires a test when she/he definitely suspects the presence of a given disease on the basis of observed symptoms and signs. A corresponding condition is a clinical study testing a hypothesis with a sizable probability of being correct. This is not the case of medical interventions based on tradition and authority or being in contrast with accepted scientific principles [2]. In such cases the initial probability of the research hypothesis (specific efficacy of the intervention) is unavoidably low. Replicating these studies in order to obtain statistical significance seems a contrived procedure apt to produce false positive results.
References [1] Lilli A. From p-value to Bayesian analysis: should we renounce to study the “unknown”? Eur J Intern Med 2014. [2] Pandolfi M, Carreras G. The faulty statistics of complementary alternative medicine (CAM). Eur J Intern Med 2014;25:607–9.
Maurizio Pandolfi Former Professor of Ophthalmology, University of Lund, Sweden Corresponding author at: Via De' Martelli 7, 50129 Florence, Italy. E-mail address: mauri.pandolfi@gmail.com. Giulia Carreras Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), via delle Oblate 2, 50139 Florence, Italy 29 September 2014 Available online xxxx
Conflict of interests The authors state that they have no conflicts of interest.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2014.10.004 0953-6205/© 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Federation of Internal Medicine.
Please cite this article as: Pandolfi M, Carreras G, Research and common sense, Eur J Intern Med (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.ejim.2014.10.004
