Parameters for the Mathematical Modelling of Clostridium difficile Acquisition and Transmission: A Systematic Review Eroboghene H. Otete1, Anand S. Ahankari1, Helen Jones1, Kirsty J. Bolton2,3, Caroline W. Jordan4, Tim C. Boswell5, Mark H. Wilcox6, Neil M. Ferguson7, Charles R. Beck1, Richard L. Puleston1* 1 School of Community Health Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom, 2 Melbourne School of Population and Global Health , University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, 3 School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom, 4 NHS England Area Team Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom, 5 Department of Clinical Microbiology, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, United Kingdom, 6 Department of Microbiology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, 7 School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Abstract Introduction: Mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile infection dynamics could contribute to the optimisation of strategies for its prevention and control. The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the available literature specifically identifying the quantitative parameters required for a compartmental mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission. Methods: Six electronic healthcare databases were searched and all screening, data extraction and study quality assessments were undertaken in duplicate. Results were synthesised using a narrative approach. Results: Fifty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Reproduction numbers for hospital based epidemics were described in two studies with a range from 0.55 to 7. Two studies provided consistent data on incubation periods. For 62% of cases, symptoms occurred in less than 4 weeks (3-28 days) after infection. Evidence on contact patterns was identified in four studies but with limited data reported for populating a mathematical model. Two studies, including one without clinically apparent donor-recipient pairs, provided information on serial intervals for household or ward contacts, showing transmission intervals of
Abstract Introduction: Mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile infection dynamics could contribute to the optimisation of strategies for its prevention and control. The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the available literature specifically identifying the quantitative parameters required for a compartmental mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission. Methods: Six electronic healthcare databases were searched and all screening, data extraction and study quality assessments were undertaken in duplicate. Results were synthesised using a narrative approach. Results: Fifty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Reproduction numbers for hospital based epidemics were described in two studies with a range from 0.55 to 7. Two studies provided consistent data on incubation periods. For 62% of cases, symptoms occurred in less than 4 weeks (3-28 days) after infection. Evidence on contact patterns was identified in four studies but with limited data reported for populating a mathematical model. Two studies, including one without clinically apparent donor-recipient pairs, provided information on serial intervals for household or ward contacts, showing transmission intervals of
