Copyright 1992 by The Cerontological Society of America
Journal of Gerontology: SOCIAL SCIENCES 1992, Vol. 47, No. 2, S45-54
Living Arrangements of Elderly Japanese and Attitudes Toward Inheritance Noriko O. Tsuya1 and Linda G. Martin2 'Population Research Institute, Nihon University, Tokyo. Committee on Population, National Academy of Sciences, and Department of Demography, Georgetown University.
2
population is aging more rapidly than that of any J APAN'S other industrialized country. In 2025, almost one quarter of the population is projected to be aged 65 and over (Institute of Population Problems, 1987). Although many elderly Japanese will be capable of caring for themselves, policymakers are increasingly concerned that public services will be necessary to supplement self-care and family caregiving (Campbell, 1991). Accordingly, to develop appropriate policies it is important to know more about the family relationships of elderly persons and how they are changing. Although support can be given across household boundaries, the extent to which elderly persons are living with their adult offspring is an important indicator of intergenerational relations. Japanese census data in recent decades indicate that decreasing proportions of older Japanese are living with their children, and increasing proportions are living alone or with spouse only (Martin, 1989a). Nevertheless, little is known about how those Japanese who live with their children differ from those who do not. Another indicator of intergenerational relations is the attitude of elderly persons toward inheritance, i.e., to whom they plan to leave their estates. As documented by the Mainichi Newspapers' biennial family planning surveys, the Japanese are taking a more pragmatic approach than in the past and are increasingly planning to leave their property to those who take care of them, rather than automatically leaving it to their eldest sons — the ideal arrangement in the pre-World War II period. Once again, however, little is known about the characteristics of those with different attitudes about inheritance and, in particular, multivariate analysis of this issue has not been undertaken. We analyzed data from the 1988 Mainichi Newspapers/ Nihon University National Family Survey to address these topics. In the next section, we document trends in these intergenerational relations and review the limited crosssectional, multivariate analysis that previously has been done. In the second section, we describe our data set and
hypotheses for the analysis of living arrangements. Next, we present results of a simple logit model of whether or not the elderly person is living with a married child. The fourth section presents a more detailed multinomial logit model of living arrangements in which there are five possible outcomes: living alone, with spouse only, with unmarried children, with married children, and with others. In the fifth section, we describe the data set and hypotheses and present results from a log-linear model of attitudes toward inheritance that includes the current living arrangement of the elderly person as a variable. Family Relations of Elderly Persons: Trends and Cross-Sectional Research Throughout Asia, about three-quarters of elderly persons live with their adult offspring, but in several East Asian populations, including Japan, coresidence is declining (Martin, 1990). The percentage of the Japanese noninstitutional population aged 65 and over living with children was 77 percent in 1970, but by 1985 it had fallen to 65 percent. The decline in coresidence has occurred for both sexes, for those married and those previously married, and for each five-year age group to age 85 (Hirosima, 1987). Convergence theory in family sociology (Goode, 1963) and modernization theory in gerontology (Cowgill and Holmes, 1972) would predict such a decline. The proponents of these theories argue that changes brought about by industrialization result in many functions previously performed within families being performed in the marketplace or by government, leading to greater independence of nuclear families. For Japan, data are not available to analyze causally the changes in living arrangements over time. Cross-sectional multivariate analysis would indicate whether or not those with more modern characteristics are more likely to live independently, but such research has not been published. [It should be noted that Kojima (1989) investigated the coresidence of married male household heads of unspecified ages
S45
Downloaded from http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/ at University of Michigan on July 8, 2015
Using data from the 1988 Mainichi NewspaperslNihon University National Family Survey, we analyzed the living arrangements and attitudes toward inheritance of Japanese aged 60 and over. Logit analysis indicates that living arrangements are influenced by gender, age, marital status, education, urban residence, and number of living children. Log-linear modeling of inheritance attitudes shows that living with married children, lower educational attainment, and living in a traditionally agricultural area are associated with favoring bequests to eldest sons, as opposed to bequests to all children equally or to whoever takes care of the elderly person. The results are consistent with modernization theory ofgerontology and convergence theory of family sociology in that elderly persons with more "modern" characteristics are more likely to depart from prewar ideals of living with married children and preferring bequests to eldest sons only.
S46
TSUYA AND MARTIN
and over (20 to 25%). Only those in their twenties in 1988 are relatively more likely to favor equal distribution (36%). Bivariate analysis of an unidentified 1980 data set by Arichi (1981), as cited in Long (1987), suggested that among older Japanese compensatory inheritance to children who care for them is more likely to be favored by women, those with at least a high school education, those living apart from their children, and those living in large cities. It should be noted that the total inheritance tax for an estate is based on what the tax would be if the spouse received one-half and the children one-half shared equally, no matter how the estate is actually distributed (Tax Bureau, 1988). Each child pays a proportion of the total tax equal to the proportion of the estate he receives, so there are not tax incentives for one type of distribution over another. But there is a tax exemption for heirs of agricultural land, provided they continue to work the land for 20 years, so a relation between agricultural land holding and favoring one child might be expected. We do not have information on such assets in our data set, but we can investigate how attitudes toward inheritance are associated with residence in an agricultural area. Of particular interest to economists is the connection between the bequest motive and savings behavior during retirement. Although the life-cycle hypothesis would predict dissaving (i.e., a spending down of assets) in retirement, there is evidence that saving continues for some (see Bernheim, Shleifer, and Summers, 1985, and Torrey, 1988, for reviews of findings for the United States, and Ando, 1985, for an analysis of Japanese data). Bernheim, Shleifer, and Summers found that bequests are used as compensation and that U.S. parents with more bequeathable wealth receive more attention from their children in multi-children families. They also cited attitudinal data from Japan and argued that the proportion stating a preference for compensatory inheritance is only "a lower bound on the significance of exchange-motivated bequests" and those reporting preference for leaving their estates to eldest sons may also be motivated to compensate for services rendered via coresidence. Although for our analysis of inheritance attitudes we do not have information on the wealth of the elderly respondents, we will be able to see how living arrangements and indicators of socioeconomic status, such as educational attainment, are associated with attitudes about inheritance. Data The data used in this analysis are drawn from an April 1988 national survey on family issues that was sponsored by Mainichi Newspapers and Nihon University. Questionnaires were left at the homes of 3,400 individuals, aged 20 years and over, who were selected by stratified multi-stage random sampling. These individuals were asked to fill out the questionnaires on their own, and survey personnel picked them up at a later date. The response rate was 71 percent, which is similar to that of other recent surveys in Japan and to the 74 percent response rate of the 1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households in the United States, which involved face-to-face interviews, as well as pick-up and mailback components. The age distribution of the 2,406 respondents is similar to that of the Japanese adult population. Married persons are
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with a married child. He found that the probability of coresidence was greater for those employed in agriculture and those with greater numbers of married children.] Kojima (1989) and Martin and Tsuya (1991) studied multigenerational living arrangements from the perspective of married middle-aged Japanese and presented multivariate analyses of their coresidence with parents in which primarily the characteristics of the middle-aged were used as explanatory variables. Both studies found that being the first born, residence in a rural area, and lower-status occupation were positively associated with coresidence; also, if the parent were widowed, the likelihood of living with the parent was higher. Martin and Tsuya noted that middle-aged persons whose marriages had been arranged also were more likely to be living with their parents. Kojima found that home ownership led to a higher probability of coresidence, although the direction of the causal relationship is questionable, because coresidence and sharing of assets could make home ownership more likely. A similar problem of causality arises in trying to model the relation between female labor force participation and coresidence. One might think that women who are working outside the home would be more eager to have parents in the home to help care for their children, but one could also argue that coresidence affects female labor force participation either through facilitating it (Morgan and Hirosima, 1983) or hindering it if care of an elderly parent is required (Ogawa, 1988). Altogether the limited multivariate results suggest that more traditional characteristics — residence in a rural area, employment in a lower-status occupation, and being in an arranged marriage — are associated with greater coresidence. Also highlighted is the importance of the demographic availability of kin with whom to live — the number of children and the survival of an older person's spouse. Research on attitudes about inheritance in Japan is even less well developed. In his review of opinion surveys conducted in the 1950s, Matsumoto (1962) noted that a majority of respondents favored the prewar ideal of primogeniture or the right of the eldest son to inherit all family property, even though it was outlawed in the American-influenced constitution of 1947. Bivariate tabulations indicated that those favoring the eldest son tended to be older, female, less educated, and working in agriculture. As mentioned earlier, there is evidence from the Mainichi Newspapers' biennial family planning surveys that attitudes have become more pragmatic or compensatory in recent decades. The percentage of wives of childbearing age who said that it would be preferable to leave property to the children who took care of them and their husbands increased from 18 percent in 1963 to 32 percent in 1977. Over the same period, the proportion in favor of leaving property to the oldest child declined from 15 to 8 percent, while the proportion favoring equal distribution to all children fluctuated between 44 and 50 percent (Mainichi Newspapers, 1978). The age pattern of attitudes found in the 1988 data from which our elderly sample is drawn clearly indicates that elderly Japanese are more likely to favor the eldest son than are Japanese in their twenties, thirties, and forties. However, the differences by age in the proportion preferring equal distribution to all children are small among those aged 30
JAPANESE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
slightly overrepresented and single persons underrepresented. Older males appear to be overrepresented relative to older females, but marital status and sex are controlled for in our analysis, so weights are not used. Our samples are restricted to persons who were aged 60 and over at the time of the survey and for whom responses were complete — 209 males and 207 females for a total of 416. Further restrictions on the sample will be discussed for each component of the analysis. Table 1 presents the definitions and means of the variables used in the analysis of living arrangements. Means are given for males and females separately and combined. The chisquare statistics reflect differences between males and fe-
Total Males Females Living arrangements Living alone Living with spouse only Living with unmarried children (with or without spouse) Living with married children (with or without spouse) Living with others
34.29* .067 .291
.014 .359
.121 .222
.192
.244
.140
.377 .072
.325 .057
.430 .087
Marital status Married Not married
.724 .276
.876 .124
.570 .430
Gender Male Female
.502 1.000 — .498
— 1.000
Age 60-69 70 +
.594 .406
.598 .402
.589 .411
Education Junior high school or less Senior high school or more
.570 .430
.522 .478
.618 .382
Place of residence Big city Small city, town, or rural area
.204 .796
.172 .828
.237 .763
Place of residence Traditionally agricultural area Not a traditionally agricultural area
.293 .707
.273 .727
.314 .686
Location of upbringing Rural Urban
.611 .389
.636 .364
.585 .415
Number of unmarried children 0 1 or more
.695 .305
.632 .368
.758 .242
Number of married children 0 1 or more
.135 .865
.144 .856
.126 .874
2.310 2.139
2.483
209
207
Average no. of married children (including those with zero) Sample size
Chisquared
48.54*
0.03
3.98*
2.66***!
0.86
1.18
7.89*
0.29
416
"Based on the sample used in the multinomial logit analysis of living arrangements. *p < .05. ****/>< .10.
males for each variable. About one-third of the respondents aged 60 years and over were living with spouse only, and about one-third were living with their married children; females were more likely than males to be living with married children, alone, or with others. Males, however, who were more likely to be currently married (given gender differences in age at marriage and in mortality), were more likely to be living with spouse only than were females — 36 versus 22 percent. In general, we would expect those who are not currently married to be more likely to be living with their married children. The sample is split almost evenly between the sexes; about 60 percent were aged 60 to 69, whereas 40 percent were aged 70 and over. If coresidence is based in part on the need for care, which would be likely to increase with age, then age should have a positive effect on coresidence with children. To the extent that women alone are perceived as being more vulnerable than men alone, we would expect that being an older female would be associated with greater coresidence with children. Males in the sample tended to have more education than females. Many respondents left unanswered the question about income, so educational attainment is our best proxy for socioeconomic status. To the extent that privacy is desirable and more attainable as socioeconomic status increases, those with more education would be more likely to live apart from children. Also, if those with less education have been less exposed to modern ideas and hold more traditional views, then education would be expected to be positively associated with living independently. Females were more likely to be living in a big city than were males, which may reflect greater movement of females to cities to live with children. Nevertheless, we had no clear prediction about the effect of residence in a big city on living arrangements, although initial cross-tabulations indicated that the other three types of residence — small cities, towns, and rural areas — were associated with quite different patterns of living arrangements than was living in a big city. Living in a big city might be associated with more modern attitudes and independent living. The high costs of housing in big cities might make it more difficult to find appropriate housing for a multigenerational household. On the other hand, high costs might make it necessary to share housing and therefore lead to greater multigenerational coresidence. Furthermore, if children have left elderly parents behind in smaller cities, towns, or rural areas, then those parents might be more likely to be living alone or with spouse only than their counterparts in big cities. We were also interested in the effects of place of upbringing and whether or not the current place of residence was a traditionally agricultural area. Some parts of Japan that today appear quite modern may have been more rural and agricultural just a few decades ago. Research on family structure has noted that certain regions, Tohoku and Hokuriku, in particular, are known for a high incidence of three-generation households (Shimizu, 1989). We ranked the 12 regions of Japan by the percentage of persons aged 15 and over employed in the primary sector, as indicated by census data for 1950, 1960, and 1970. The five regions with the highest average rankings — Tohoku, Minami-Kyushu,
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Table 1. Definitions and Means of Variables"
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TSUYA AND MARTIN
S48
Logit Analysis of Living with a Married Child We began our analysis of living arrangements by estimating a simple model of whether or not the elderly respondents
were living with a married child. We decided to focus on living with married children, as opposed to all children no matter what their marital status, because the prewar ideal was to live with the eldest son and his wife. Furthermore, living with a married child probably represents a conscious decision — precipitated either by the marriage of the child or some other event or change of circumstances later in the life cycle for either of the generations. Living with an unmarried child is less likely to involve such a decision and more likely to represent simply a continuation of a pattern from childhood. One might also speculate that the direction of intergenerational flows of support is different in the case of married and unmarried children, but we do not have evidence to this effect, and one should not make assumptions about the direction or size of such flows simply on the basis of coresidence or living apart. To be at risk of living with a married child, one has to have at least one surviving married child. Accordingly, the samples for this part of the analysis were reduced to 179 males and 181 females for a total of 360, after excluding those without a married child. We included the number of married children as an explanatory variable, because we would expect that having more children would increase the probability of living with at least one of them. In Table 2, two models each are shown for males, females, and the two groups combined. Model 1 includes all the variables, and Model 2 only those variables having significant effects on the log odds of coresidence. Variables
Table 2. Coefficients and Standard Errors (in Parentheses) of the Logit Analysis of Living with Married Children or Not 8 Males
Constant Not married Female
Females
Total
Model 1
Model 2
Model 1
Model 2
Model 1
Model 2
-2.84** (.67)
-2.64** (.62)
-2.11** (.52)
-2.37** (.42)
-2.23** (.38)
.46
—
.48
n.a.
(.35) n.a.
-1.71** (.43) .68*** (.33) n.a.
(.48) n.a.b
.44
.45
(.28)
(.28)
.13
—
(.32) Female x Age 2*70
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
.49 (.47)
Age 5=70
.13
—
(.37) Education junior high or less Not living in a big city Living in a traditionally agricultural area
.57 (.36) 1.22** (.57)
.69*** (.34) 1.21** (.54)
.10
—
(.36) Rural upbringing Number of married children Chi-squared (df)
N
—
.24 (.37) 25*** (.12) 21.41*
27*** (.12) 19.61*
(7) 179
(3) 179
.54 (.37) 1.02*** (.36)
— 1.10*** (.34)
— 90*** (.24) .74** (.30)
.39
—
(.42) -.01 (.39)
—
.33
—
.27
—
.25*** (.12) 23.83*
(.25) 21*** (.09) 51.60*
22*** (.09) 50.20*
(3) 181
(9) 360
(5) 360
.18 (.13) 28.20*
(7) 181
.06
—
(.26)
(.36)
"Based on the sample ages 60 and over with living married children, ''n.a. = not applicable. *p < .05. **p< .05, two-tail test. ***p < .05, one-tail test.
.07 (.34) g2*** (.25) .66** (.33)
.60*** (-31)
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Kita-Kanto, Shikoku, and Hokuriku — were grouped to indicate "traditionally agricultural areas," i.e., regions that 20 to 30 years ago were relatively more agricultural than the rest of Japan. Not in the category are Hokkaido, MinamiKanto, Tokai, Nishi-Kinki, Higashi-Kinki, Chugoku, and Kita-Kyushu. Almost one-third of the sample was currently living in traditionally agricultural areas and almost twothirds had grown up in rural areas, and we would expect these persons to be more likely to be living with their children. The next three variables in Table 1 present information about numbers of children and their marital status. Unfortunately, the survey did not request information about other characteristics of the children. Because decisions about intergenerational coresidence are not made by one generation in isolation from the other, an ideal data set for this analysis would include information about the characteristics of the children as well as the older persons. Males were more likely than females to have an unmarried child, which probably reflects the fact that wives of the male respondents are on average younger than themselves and the female respondents. About 85 percent of the respondents had at least one married child, and among those, males on average had 2.5 married children and females 2.8.
S49
JAPANESE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
Multinomial Logit Analysis of Living Arrangements We next investigated whether the data would show additional contrasts if we split those not living with married children into more detailed groupings. Accordingly, we fit a multinomial logit model with five possible outcomes: living alone, living with spouse only, living with unmarried children, living with married children, and living with others. For this analysis, the sample size was 416, including 209 males and 207 females, because we included all the elderly respondents — not just those with at least one married child. Rather than limiting the sample to only those at risk of all the various outcomes, a modified multinomial logit model that allows the effects of some variables to be constrained to zero was used (Greene, no date; Martin, 1989b; Wolf, 1984; Wolf and Soldo, 1988). We controlled for whether or not the persons were at risk for a particular outcome by including variables on marital status, whether they had at least one unmarried child, and whether they had at least one married child. However, availability of a spouse (marital status) was not allowed to directly affect the estimation of the probability of living with the spouse, availability of an unmarried child did not directly affect the estimated probability of living with such a child, and availability of a married child did not affect the results for living with a married child. Given the large number of outcomes and the small sample size, for the multinomial logit analysis the data for males and females were pooled and a variable for gender included in the model. In Table 3, the coefficients reflect the effects of the variables on the log odds of living with a spouse versus
living alone (the omitted outcome), the log odds of living with unmarried children versus living alone, the log odds of living with married children versus living alone, and the log odds of living with others versus living alone. Two-tail tstatistics were used to test hypotheses because it was difficult to specify signs in the hypotheses, given the nature of the coefficients in multinomial models. We could only hypothesize that each variable would have some effect. The chisquare statistic, which tests the overall explanatory power of the model, is significant. Being female as opposed to male and aged 70 or over as opposed to aged 60-69 significantly reduced the log odds of living with spouse, married or unmarried children, or others relative to living alone. That is, being an older female raised the log odds of living alone relative to the other outcomes. Having a junior high education or less also reduced the log odds of living with spouse only relative to living alone. Not being married raised the log odds of living with married children or living with others. Having an unmarried child reduced the log odds of living with spouse only, living with married children, and living with others relative to living alone. Finally, having a married child reduced the log odds of living with spouse only, living with unmarried children, and living with others relative to living alone. The results on the effects of kin availability are especially difficult to interpret using the direct multinomial estimates.
Table 3. Coefficients and Standard Errors (in Parentheses) of the Multinomial Logit Analysis of Living Arrangements, Based on the Sample Ages 60 and Over Effect on the Log Odds of Living With the Following Relative to Living Alone Spouse Only Constant
Unmarried Married Children Children
8.18** 5.63** 4.68** (1.09) (1.05) (.96) Female -3.46** -3.09** - 2 . 7 1 * * (.70) (.69) (.71) Age 5s 70 -2.47** -2.05** -1.60** (.53) (.55) (.51) Education junior high or less -1.08** -.65 -.02 (.54) (.56) (-53) Not living in a big city -.31 .02 .51 (.59) (.62) (.58) Living in a traditionally agricultural area .88 .36 .75 (.62) (.64) (.59) -.40 Rural upbringing .20 .21 (.54) (.57) (-53) — Not married .64 .75** (.45) (.33) — Unmarried child alive -3.08** -3.05** (.38) (.37) _ Married child alive -1.39** -1.92** (.50) (.50) Chi-squared 27
Journal of Gerontology: SOCIAL SCIENCES 1992, Vol. 47, No. 2, S45-54
Living Arrangements of Elderly Japanese and Attitudes Toward Inheritance Noriko O. Tsuya1 and Linda G. Martin2 'Population Research Institute, Nihon University, Tokyo. Committee on Population, National Academy of Sciences, and Department of Demography, Georgetown University.
2
population is aging more rapidly than that of any J APAN'S other industrialized country. In 2025, almost one quarter of the population is projected to be aged 65 and over (Institute of Population Problems, 1987). Although many elderly Japanese will be capable of caring for themselves, policymakers are increasingly concerned that public services will be necessary to supplement self-care and family caregiving (Campbell, 1991). Accordingly, to develop appropriate policies it is important to know more about the family relationships of elderly persons and how they are changing. Although support can be given across household boundaries, the extent to which elderly persons are living with their adult offspring is an important indicator of intergenerational relations. Japanese census data in recent decades indicate that decreasing proportions of older Japanese are living with their children, and increasing proportions are living alone or with spouse only (Martin, 1989a). Nevertheless, little is known about how those Japanese who live with their children differ from those who do not. Another indicator of intergenerational relations is the attitude of elderly persons toward inheritance, i.e., to whom they plan to leave their estates. As documented by the Mainichi Newspapers' biennial family planning surveys, the Japanese are taking a more pragmatic approach than in the past and are increasingly planning to leave their property to those who take care of them, rather than automatically leaving it to their eldest sons — the ideal arrangement in the pre-World War II period. Once again, however, little is known about the characteristics of those with different attitudes about inheritance and, in particular, multivariate analysis of this issue has not been undertaken. We analyzed data from the 1988 Mainichi Newspapers/ Nihon University National Family Survey to address these topics. In the next section, we document trends in these intergenerational relations and review the limited crosssectional, multivariate analysis that previously has been done. In the second section, we describe our data set and
hypotheses for the analysis of living arrangements. Next, we present results of a simple logit model of whether or not the elderly person is living with a married child. The fourth section presents a more detailed multinomial logit model of living arrangements in which there are five possible outcomes: living alone, with spouse only, with unmarried children, with married children, and with others. In the fifth section, we describe the data set and hypotheses and present results from a log-linear model of attitudes toward inheritance that includes the current living arrangement of the elderly person as a variable. Family Relations of Elderly Persons: Trends and Cross-Sectional Research Throughout Asia, about three-quarters of elderly persons live with their adult offspring, but in several East Asian populations, including Japan, coresidence is declining (Martin, 1990). The percentage of the Japanese noninstitutional population aged 65 and over living with children was 77 percent in 1970, but by 1985 it had fallen to 65 percent. The decline in coresidence has occurred for both sexes, for those married and those previously married, and for each five-year age group to age 85 (Hirosima, 1987). Convergence theory in family sociology (Goode, 1963) and modernization theory in gerontology (Cowgill and Holmes, 1972) would predict such a decline. The proponents of these theories argue that changes brought about by industrialization result in many functions previously performed within families being performed in the marketplace or by government, leading to greater independence of nuclear families. For Japan, data are not available to analyze causally the changes in living arrangements over time. Cross-sectional multivariate analysis would indicate whether or not those with more modern characteristics are more likely to live independently, but such research has not been published. [It should be noted that Kojima (1989) investigated the coresidence of married male household heads of unspecified ages
S45
Downloaded from http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/ at University of Michigan on July 8, 2015
Using data from the 1988 Mainichi NewspaperslNihon University National Family Survey, we analyzed the living arrangements and attitudes toward inheritance of Japanese aged 60 and over. Logit analysis indicates that living arrangements are influenced by gender, age, marital status, education, urban residence, and number of living children. Log-linear modeling of inheritance attitudes shows that living with married children, lower educational attainment, and living in a traditionally agricultural area are associated with favoring bequests to eldest sons, as opposed to bequests to all children equally or to whoever takes care of the elderly person. The results are consistent with modernization theory ofgerontology and convergence theory of family sociology in that elderly persons with more "modern" characteristics are more likely to depart from prewar ideals of living with married children and preferring bequests to eldest sons only.
S46
TSUYA AND MARTIN
and over (20 to 25%). Only those in their twenties in 1988 are relatively more likely to favor equal distribution (36%). Bivariate analysis of an unidentified 1980 data set by Arichi (1981), as cited in Long (1987), suggested that among older Japanese compensatory inheritance to children who care for them is more likely to be favored by women, those with at least a high school education, those living apart from their children, and those living in large cities. It should be noted that the total inheritance tax for an estate is based on what the tax would be if the spouse received one-half and the children one-half shared equally, no matter how the estate is actually distributed (Tax Bureau, 1988). Each child pays a proportion of the total tax equal to the proportion of the estate he receives, so there are not tax incentives for one type of distribution over another. But there is a tax exemption for heirs of agricultural land, provided they continue to work the land for 20 years, so a relation between agricultural land holding and favoring one child might be expected. We do not have information on such assets in our data set, but we can investigate how attitudes toward inheritance are associated with residence in an agricultural area. Of particular interest to economists is the connection between the bequest motive and savings behavior during retirement. Although the life-cycle hypothesis would predict dissaving (i.e., a spending down of assets) in retirement, there is evidence that saving continues for some (see Bernheim, Shleifer, and Summers, 1985, and Torrey, 1988, for reviews of findings for the United States, and Ando, 1985, for an analysis of Japanese data). Bernheim, Shleifer, and Summers found that bequests are used as compensation and that U.S. parents with more bequeathable wealth receive more attention from their children in multi-children families. They also cited attitudinal data from Japan and argued that the proportion stating a preference for compensatory inheritance is only "a lower bound on the significance of exchange-motivated bequests" and those reporting preference for leaving their estates to eldest sons may also be motivated to compensate for services rendered via coresidence. Although for our analysis of inheritance attitudes we do not have information on the wealth of the elderly respondents, we will be able to see how living arrangements and indicators of socioeconomic status, such as educational attainment, are associated with attitudes about inheritance. Data The data used in this analysis are drawn from an April 1988 national survey on family issues that was sponsored by Mainichi Newspapers and Nihon University. Questionnaires were left at the homes of 3,400 individuals, aged 20 years and over, who were selected by stratified multi-stage random sampling. These individuals were asked to fill out the questionnaires on their own, and survey personnel picked them up at a later date. The response rate was 71 percent, which is similar to that of other recent surveys in Japan and to the 74 percent response rate of the 1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households in the United States, which involved face-to-face interviews, as well as pick-up and mailback components. The age distribution of the 2,406 respondents is similar to that of the Japanese adult population. Married persons are
Downloaded from http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/ at University of Michigan on July 8, 2015
with a married child. He found that the probability of coresidence was greater for those employed in agriculture and those with greater numbers of married children.] Kojima (1989) and Martin and Tsuya (1991) studied multigenerational living arrangements from the perspective of married middle-aged Japanese and presented multivariate analyses of their coresidence with parents in which primarily the characteristics of the middle-aged were used as explanatory variables. Both studies found that being the first born, residence in a rural area, and lower-status occupation were positively associated with coresidence; also, if the parent were widowed, the likelihood of living with the parent was higher. Martin and Tsuya noted that middle-aged persons whose marriages had been arranged also were more likely to be living with their parents. Kojima found that home ownership led to a higher probability of coresidence, although the direction of the causal relationship is questionable, because coresidence and sharing of assets could make home ownership more likely. A similar problem of causality arises in trying to model the relation between female labor force participation and coresidence. One might think that women who are working outside the home would be more eager to have parents in the home to help care for their children, but one could also argue that coresidence affects female labor force participation either through facilitating it (Morgan and Hirosima, 1983) or hindering it if care of an elderly parent is required (Ogawa, 1988). Altogether the limited multivariate results suggest that more traditional characteristics — residence in a rural area, employment in a lower-status occupation, and being in an arranged marriage — are associated with greater coresidence. Also highlighted is the importance of the demographic availability of kin with whom to live — the number of children and the survival of an older person's spouse. Research on attitudes about inheritance in Japan is even less well developed. In his review of opinion surveys conducted in the 1950s, Matsumoto (1962) noted that a majority of respondents favored the prewar ideal of primogeniture or the right of the eldest son to inherit all family property, even though it was outlawed in the American-influenced constitution of 1947. Bivariate tabulations indicated that those favoring the eldest son tended to be older, female, less educated, and working in agriculture. As mentioned earlier, there is evidence from the Mainichi Newspapers' biennial family planning surveys that attitudes have become more pragmatic or compensatory in recent decades. The percentage of wives of childbearing age who said that it would be preferable to leave property to the children who took care of them and their husbands increased from 18 percent in 1963 to 32 percent in 1977. Over the same period, the proportion in favor of leaving property to the oldest child declined from 15 to 8 percent, while the proportion favoring equal distribution to all children fluctuated between 44 and 50 percent (Mainichi Newspapers, 1978). The age pattern of attitudes found in the 1988 data from which our elderly sample is drawn clearly indicates that elderly Japanese are more likely to favor the eldest son than are Japanese in their twenties, thirties, and forties. However, the differences by age in the proportion preferring equal distribution to all children are small among those aged 30
JAPANESE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
slightly overrepresented and single persons underrepresented. Older males appear to be overrepresented relative to older females, but marital status and sex are controlled for in our analysis, so weights are not used. Our samples are restricted to persons who were aged 60 and over at the time of the survey and for whom responses were complete — 209 males and 207 females for a total of 416. Further restrictions on the sample will be discussed for each component of the analysis. Table 1 presents the definitions and means of the variables used in the analysis of living arrangements. Means are given for males and females separately and combined. The chisquare statistics reflect differences between males and fe-
Total Males Females Living arrangements Living alone Living with spouse only Living with unmarried children (with or without spouse) Living with married children (with or without spouse) Living with others
34.29* .067 .291
.014 .359
.121 .222
.192
.244
.140
.377 .072
.325 .057
.430 .087
Marital status Married Not married
.724 .276
.876 .124
.570 .430
Gender Male Female
.502 1.000 — .498
— 1.000
Age 60-69 70 +
.594 .406
.598 .402
.589 .411
Education Junior high school or less Senior high school or more
.570 .430
.522 .478
.618 .382
Place of residence Big city Small city, town, or rural area
.204 .796
.172 .828
.237 .763
Place of residence Traditionally agricultural area Not a traditionally agricultural area
.293 .707
.273 .727
.314 .686
Location of upbringing Rural Urban
.611 .389
.636 .364
.585 .415
Number of unmarried children 0 1 or more
.695 .305
.632 .368
.758 .242
Number of married children 0 1 or more
.135 .865
.144 .856
.126 .874
2.310 2.139
2.483
209
207
Average no. of married children (including those with zero) Sample size
Chisquared
48.54*
0.03
3.98*
2.66***!
0.86
1.18
7.89*
0.29
416
"Based on the sample used in the multinomial logit analysis of living arrangements. *p < .05. ****/>< .10.
males for each variable. About one-third of the respondents aged 60 years and over were living with spouse only, and about one-third were living with their married children; females were more likely than males to be living with married children, alone, or with others. Males, however, who were more likely to be currently married (given gender differences in age at marriage and in mortality), were more likely to be living with spouse only than were females — 36 versus 22 percent. In general, we would expect those who are not currently married to be more likely to be living with their married children. The sample is split almost evenly between the sexes; about 60 percent were aged 60 to 69, whereas 40 percent were aged 70 and over. If coresidence is based in part on the need for care, which would be likely to increase with age, then age should have a positive effect on coresidence with children. To the extent that women alone are perceived as being more vulnerable than men alone, we would expect that being an older female would be associated with greater coresidence with children. Males in the sample tended to have more education than females. Many respondents left unanswered the question about income, so educational attainment is our best proxy for socioeconomic status. To the extent that privacy is desirable and more attainable as socioeconomic status increases, those with more education would be more likely to live apart from children. Also, if those with less education have been less exposed to modern ideas and hold more traditional views, then education would be expected to be positively associated with living independently. Females were more likely to be living in a big city than were males, which may reflect greater movement of females to cities to live with children. Nevertheless, we had no clear prediction about the effect of residence in a big city on living arrangements, although initial cross-tabulations indicated that the other three types of residence — small cities, towns, and rural areas — were associated with quite different patterns of living arrangements than was living in a big city. Living in a big city might be associated with more modern attitudes and independent living. The high costs of housing in big cities might make it more difficult to find appropriate housing for a multigenerational household. On the other hand, high costs might make it necessary to share housing and therefore lead to greater multigenerational coresidence. Furthermore, if children have left elderly parents behind in smaller cities, towns, or rural areas, then those parents might be more likely to be living alone or with spouse only than their counterparts in big cities. We were also interested in the effects of place of upbringing and whether or not the current place of residence was a traditionally agricultural area. Some parts of Japan that today appear quite modern may have been more rural and agricultural just a few decades ago. Research on family structure has noted that certain regions, Tohoku and Hokuriku, in particular, are known for a high incidence of three-generation households (Shimizu, 1989). We ranked the 12 regions of Japan by the percentage of persons aged 15 and over employed in the primary sector, as indicated by census data for 1950, 1960, and 1970. The five regions with the highest average rankings — Tohoku, Minami-Kyushu,
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Table 1. Definitions and Means of Variables"
S47
TSUYA AND MARTIN
S48
Logit Analysis of Living with a Married Child We began our analysis of living arrangements by estimating a simple model of whether or not the elderly respondents
were living with a married child. We decided to focus on living with married children, as opposed to all children no matter what their marital status, because the prewar ideal was to live with the eldest son and his wife. Furthermore, living with a married child probably represents a conscious decision — precipitated either by the marriage of the child or some other event or change of circumstances later in the life cycle for either of the generations. Living with an unmarried child is less likely to involve such a decision and more likely to represent simply a continuation of a pattern from childhood. One might also speculate that the direction of intergenerational flows of support is different in the case of married and unmarried children, but we do not have evidence to this effect, and one should not make assumptions about the direction or size of such flows simply on the basis of coresidence or living apart. To be at risk of living with a married child, one has to have at least one surviving married child. Accordingly, the samples for this part of the analysis were reduced to 179 males and 181 females for a total of 360, after excluding those without a married child. We included the number of married children as an explanatory variable, because we would expect that having more children would increase the probability of living with at least one of them. In Table 2, two models each are shown for males, females, and the two groups combined. Model 1 includes all the variables, and Model 2 only those variables having significant effects on the log odds of coresidence. Variables
Table 2. Coefficients and Standard Errors (in Parentheses) of the Logit Analysis of Living with Married Children or Not 8 Males
Constant Not married Female
Females
Total
Model 1
Model 2
Model 1
Model 2
Model 1
Model 2
-2.84** (.67)
-2.64** (.62)
-2.11** (.52)
-2.37** (.42)
-2.23** (.38)
.46
—
.48
n.a.
(.35) n.a.
-1.71** (.43) .68*** (.33) n.a.
(.48) n.a.b
.44
.45
(.28)
(.28)
.13
—
(.32) Female x Age 2*70
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
.49 (.47)
Age 5=70
.13
—
(.37) Education junior high or less Not living in a big city Living in a traditionally agricultural area
.57 (.36) 1.22** (.57)
.69*** (.34) 1.21** (.54)
.10
—
(.36) Rural upbringing Number of married children Chi-squared (df)
N
—
.24 (.37) 25*** (.12) 21.41*
27*** (.12) 19.61*
(7) 179
(3) 179
.54 (.37) 1.02*** (.36)
— 1.10*** (.34)
— 90*** (.24) .74** (.30)
.39
—
(.42) -.01 (.39)
—
.33
—
.27
—
.25*** (.12) 23.83*
(.25) 21*** (.09) 51.60*
22*** (.09) 50.20*
(3) 181
(9) 360
(5) 360
.18 (.13) 28.20*
(7) 181
.06
—
(.26)
(.36)
"Based on the sample ages 60 and over with living married children, ''n.a. = not applicable. *p < .05. **p< .05, two-tail test. ***p < .05, one-tail test.
.07 (.34) g2*** (.25) .66** (.33)
.60*** (-31)
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Kita-Kanto, Shikoku, and Hokuriku — were grouped to indicate "traditionally agricultural areas," i.e., regions that 20 to 30 years ago were relatively more agricultural than the rest of Japan. Not in the category are Hokkaido, MinamiKanto, Tokai, Nishi-Kinki, Higashi-Kinki, Chugoku, and Kita-Kyushu. Almost one-third of the sample was currently living in traditionally agricultural areas and almost twothirds had grown up in rural areas, and we would expect these persons to be more likely to be living with their children. The next three variables in Table 1 present information about numbers of children and their marital status. Unfortunately, the survey did not request information about other characteristics of the children. Because decisions about intergenerational coresidence are not made by one generation in isolation from the other, an ideal data set for this analysis would include information about the characteristics of the children as well as the older persons. Males were more likely than females to have an unmarried child, which probably reflects the fact that wives of the male respondents are on average younger than themselves and the female respondents. About 85 percent of the respondents had at least one married child, and among those, males on average had 2.5 married children and females 2.8.
S49
JAPANESE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
Multinomial Logit Analysis of Living Arrangements We next investigated whether the data would show additional contrasts if we split those not living with married children into more detailed groupings. Accordingly, we fit a multinomial logit model with five possible outcomes: living alone, living with spouse only, living with unmarried children, living with married children, and living with others. For this analysis, the sample size was 416, including 209 males and 207 females, because we included all the elderly respondents — not just those with at least one married child. Rather than limiting the sample to only those at risk of all the various outcomes, a modified multinomial logit model that allows the effects of some variables to be constrained to zero was used (Greene, no date; Martin, 1989b; Wolf, 1984; Wolf and Soldo, 1988). We controlled for whether or not the persons were at risk for a particular outcome by including variables on marital status, whether they had at least one unmarried child, and whether they had at least one married child. However, availability of a spouse (marital status) was not allowed to directly affect the estimation of the probability of living with the spouse, availability of an unmarried child did not directly affect the estimated probability of living with such a child, and availability of a married child did not affect the results for living with a married child. Given the large number of outcomes and the small sample size, for the multinomial logit analysis the data for males and females were pooled and a variable for gender included in the model. In Table 3, the coefficients reflect the effects of the variables on the log odds of living with a spouse versus
living alone (the omitted outcome), the log odds of living with unmarried children versus living alone, the log odds of living with married children versus living alone, and the log odds of living with others versus living alone. Two-tail tstatistics were used to test hypotheses because it was difficult to specify signs in the hypotheses, given the nature of the coefficients in multinomial models. We could only hypothesize that each variable would have some effect. The chisquare statistic, which tests the overall explanatory power of the model, is significant. Being female as opposed to male and aged 70 or over as opposed to aged 60-69 significantly reduced the log odds of living with spouse, married or unmarried children, or others relative to living alone. That is, being an older female raised the log odds of living alone relative to the other outcomes. Having a junior high education or less also reduced the log odds of living with spouse only relative to living alone. Not being married raised the log odds of living with married children or living with others. Having an unmarried child reduced the log odds of living with spouse only, living with married children, and living with others relative to living alone. Finally, having a married child reduced the log odds of living with spouse only, living with unmarried children, and living with others relative to living alone. The results on the effects of kin availability are especially difficult to interpret using the direct multinomial estimates.
Table 3. Coefficients and Standard Errors (in Parentheses) of the Multinomial Logit Analysis of Living Arrangements, Based on the Sample Ages 60 and Over Effect on the Log Odds of Living With the Following Relative to Living Alone Spouse Only Constant
Unmarried Married Children Children
8.18** 5.63** 4.68** (1.09) (1.05) (.96) Female -3.46** -3.09** - 2 . 7 1 * * (.70) (.69) (.71) Age 5s 70 -2.47** -2.05** -1.60** (.53) (.55) (.51) Education junior high or less -1.08** -.65 -.02 (.54) (.56) (-53) Not living in a big city -.31 .02 .51 (.59) (.62) (.58) Living in a traditionally agricultural area .88 .36 .75 (.62) (.64) (.59) -.40 Rural upbringing .20 .21 (.54) (.57) (-53) — Not married .64 .75** (.45) (.33) — Unmarried child alive -3.08** -3.05** (.38) (.37) _ Married child alive -1.39** -1.92** (.50) (.50) Chi-squared 27
