Global change biology
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Research Cite this article: zhu J, Zhang Y, Wang W. 2016 Interactions between warming and soil moisture increase overlap in reproductive phenology among species in an alpine meadow. Biol. Lett. 12: 20150749. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0749
Interactions between warming and soil moisture increase overlap in reproductive phenology among species in an alpine meadow Juntao zhu1, Yangjian Zhang1,2 and Wenfeng Wang3 1
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China 2 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China 3 Tibet Academy of Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Science, Institute of Agriculture Science, Lhasa 850032, People’s Republic of China Jz, 0000-0003-0379-3213
Received: 29 August 2015 Accepted: 20 June 2016
Subject Areas: ecology, plant science Keywords: alpine meadow, experimental warming, phenological overlap, phenological shifts, reproductive phenology
Climate warming strongly influences reproductive phenology of plants in alpine and Arctic ecosystems. Here, we focus on phenological shifts caused by experimental warming in a typical alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Under soil water stress caused by warming, most plants in the alpine meadow advanced or delayed their reproductive events to be aligned with the timing of peak rainfall. As a result, warming significantly increased the temporal overlap among reproductive stages of early- and late-flowering species. In addition, we found that some species, for example the late-flowering species, were unable to produce flowers and fruits under warming with failed monsoon rains. The potentially warmer- and drier-growing seasons under climate change may similarly shift the phenological patterns and change species composition of these alpine systems.
1. Introduction Authors for correspondence: Juntao zhu e-mail: [email protected] Yangjian Zhang e-mail: [email protected]
Electronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0749 or via http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org.
Reproductive phenology of plants is strongly influenced by temperature in alpine and Arctic ecosystems. Plant species may respond differently to temperature change, depending on their life-history traits [1–3]. For example, warming can have divergent consequences on plant phenology, including advanced [4,5], delayed [6,7] or unchanged [8] phenological events. Under warming, some species respond immediately, whereas other species might take several years for the cumulative effects of warming to emerge [8]. By shifting phenological stages, warming can significantly expand or shorten the overlapping periods of reproductive stages between successively blooming species [9], and disperse the reproductive events of different species away from the peak of summer heat [10]. Results have also been reported that there were no evident divergences in the advance or delay of the flowering date of some species [11]. The rapidly warming temperatures in high-latitude and alpine regions have the potential to alter the phenology of Arctic and alpine plants, and plants of different communities and growth forms differed for some phenological responses [12]. In alpine meadows on the central Tibetan Plateau, warming can result in soil water stress, particularly in the premonsoon growing season [2]. In this study, we put forward a conceptual model regarding responses of reproductive phenology to warming as showed in electronic supplementary material, figure S1. Under this hypothesis, warming would delay the reproductive phenology of
& 2016 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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Figure 1. The fitted curves of phenological stage changes for Kobresia pygmaea (early-flowering species, red line), Potentilla saundersiana (midflowering species, green line) and Stipa purpurea (late-flowering species, blue line) in the control plots. Parameters (K, a, b and m) describing the shape of the curve were obtained by fitting the observed phenological scores to the Richards equation for each species in each treatment. shallow-rooted, early-flowering species, advance the phenology of deep-rooted, late-flowering species and cause no effect on shallow-rooted, mid-flowering species, consequently expanding the reproductive overlap among species. With the help of a manipulative experiment, we aimed to test the above conceptual hypothesis by exploring phenological shifts caused by warming for an alpine meadow system on the Tibetan Plateau.
2. Material and methods The study area was located in a typical alpine meadow grassland at Naqu, northern Tibet, China (31838.5130 N, 9280.9210 E), approximately 4600 m in elevation. The long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation is –1.28C and 430 mm (1955–2012), respectively. The summer monsoon is the main source of precipitation in this region [2]. The onset of the summer monsoon over the past nearly 60 years has a mean date of 22 May (DOY: 142); however, there is considerable annual variation [13]. The growing season normally starts in mid-May and lasts until mid-September. The vegetation is dominated by Kobresia pygmaea, accompanied by Potentilla saundersiana, Potentilla cuneata and Stipa purpurea (figure 1). Passive warming was achieved using hexagonal open-top chambers (OTCs) based on the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) design [14]. The treatments included control, and four levels of warming (electronic supplementary material, figure S2). There were four replicates per treatment for a total of 20 plots. The OTCs were set up in October 2013. We measured air temperature and moisture at 10 cm above-ground using the Vaisala HMP155A sensor (Vaisala, Helsinki, Finland). Soil temperature and moisture at 5 cm below-ground were measured in the centre of the plots using Campbell CS655 sensors (Campbell Scientific, Logan, UT). Two air and soil sensors were installed for each treatment, and the data were averaged over the two sensors. We selected K. pygmaea, P. saundersiana, P. cuneata, S. purpurea, Festuca coelestis and Youngia simulatrix as the focal species, whose coverage and biomass account for more than 80% of the entire community. Twenty individuals of K. pygmaea and 10 individuals of other species were selected from each plot in May 2014 and marked with a colour-coded tag. Plant phenology was scored
3. Results The 2015 growing season (total rainfall ¼ 306 mm) was drier than in 2014 (total rainfall ¼ 460 mm; electronic supplementary material, figure S3). Specially, the total rainfall from 184 to 215 (DOY) in 2015 was 17.3 mm, and 115.4 mm in 2014. Warming increased air and soil temperature, and reduced soil moisture during both growing seasons (electronic supplementary material, figure S3). Warming delayed reproductive phenology (budding, flowering and fruiting) of K. pygmaea, advanced phenology of P. saundersiana, S. purpurea and F. coelestis (electronic supplementary material, figure S4 and table S4 –S9, p , 0.05), but caused no obvious effects on the phenological timing of P. cuneata and Y. simulatrix in both years ( p . 0.05). The overlapped flowering period between K. pygmaea and P. saundersiana increased by 9.4, 10.3, 3.8 days and 6.6, 8.9, 5.1 days in response to the warming treatments (T1, T2, T3) in 2014 and 2015 (electronic supplementary material, table S10 and S11, p , 0.05), respectively. The delayed flowering of K. pygmaea caused its flowering period to overlap with that of P. cuneata by 3.7, 4.3, 10.1, 7.1 days and 2.8, 4.6, 7.5, 9.5 days ( p , 0.05) under the four experimental warming treatments in 2014 and 2015, respectively (figure 2). Fruits were not produced by K. pygmaea in treatment T4 in 2014 and 2015 (see electronic supplementary material, figure S4). In 2015, flowers were not produced by F. coelestis and Y. simulatrix in treatment T3, nor by F. coelestis, Y. simulatrix and S. purpurea in treatment T4, and fruits were not produced by S. purpurea, F. coelestis and
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every 3–5 days for 2 consecutive years: 2014 and 2015. The phenological stage scoring was modified from Dunne et al. [4]. For K. pygmaea and forbs, P. saundersiana, P. cuneata and Y. simulatri, reproductive phenology was divided into six stages: F0, vegetative plants; F1, open buds; F2, open flowers; F3, initiated fruit; F4, expanding fruit and F5, dehisced fruit. For grasses, S. purpurea and F. coelestis, five reproductive stages were distinguished: G0, plants with flower stalks; G1, presence of spikelets; G2, exerted anthers and styles; G3, past the presence of anthers and styles and G4, disarticulating florets [10]. Based on their life-history traits, we classified K. pygmaea as a shallow-rooted (10 cm depth) and early-flowering species (DOY: 155 + 0.8, during the early summer monsoon), P. saundersiana and P. cuneata as shallowrooted (10 cm depth) and mid-flowering species (DOY: 168 + 0.4; DOY: 172 + 1.1; during the summer monsoon) and S. purpurea, F. coelestis and Y. simulatrix as deep-rooted (30 cm depth) and late-flowering species (DOY: 193 + 0.5; DOY: 197 + 1.2; DOY: 208 + 0.4, respectively; during the summer monsoon, based on data from 2014). We first applied the Richards equation with the contraction– expansion algorithm to fit phenological scores (Y ) of each species against the day for each plot by using MATLAB (MathWorks, Natick, MA; equation 1 in the electronic supplementary material). Best parameter estimates of K, a, b and m were obtained for each species in each plot. Second, based on equation 2 (see the electronic supplementary material), budding, flowering and fruiting timing were calculated as Y ¼ 1, Y ¼ 2 and Y ¼ 3 for all species, respectively. Flowering duration was calculated as the difference between stages 2 (Y ¼ 2) and 3 (Y ¼ 3). A two-way ANOVA with Turkey’s test was used to examine warming, year and their interactive effects on the timing of budding, flowering and fruiting for each species, and the overlap in flowering phase among species. The effects were considered to be significant if p , 0.05. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS v. 19.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL).
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Figure 2. Timing and duration of the flowering period for the six species under five treatments in 2014 (a) and 2015 (b). The dotted vertical line indicates the time of rainfall peak (DOY: 187 and 183, in 2014 and 2015). For Kobresia pygmaea (Kp), Potentilla saundersiana (Ps), Potentilla cuneata (Pc), Stipa purpurea (Sp), Festuca coelestis (Fc) and Youngia simulatrix (Ys) changes in timing or duration caused by the warming treatments (T1, T2, T3, T4, n ¼ 4 per treatment) are large enough to significantly affect the overlap between paired species. In 2015, flowers were not produced by F. coelestis and Y. simulatrix in treatment T3, nor by F. coelestis, Y. simulatrix and S. purpurea in treatment T4. Data are presented as duration + s.e. at the two ends of the flowering periods. Y. simulatrix in all treatments (see electronic supplementary material, figure S4).
4. Discussion Our experiment showed that warming changed the reproductive phenology of alpine plant species and that these responses were not uniform among species. In our study area, warming leads to soil water stress, particularly in the premonsoon growing season [2]. Plants with distinct life-history traits (early versus late flowering) and rooting depths possess different vulnerabilities to the decreased upper-soil moisture caused by increased temperature [2]. Delayed phenological development caused by water limitation under the warming treatment [15] may result in shallow-rooted and early-flowering species, such as K. pygmaea, being more sensitive to warming [1] during the wet growing season. In this study, warming advanced reproductive phenology of P. saundersiana, but not of P. cuneata. The shallow-rooted and midflowering species start flowering in the middle of June when the monsoon has started and can avoid strong water stress, which the early-flowering species has to face [2]. In this case, others have also reported advanced [4,5], delayed [6,7] or unchanged [2,8] phenological responses to warming in other species. The deeprooted and late-flowering species, such as S. purpurea and F. coelestis, start flowering during the monsoon season and are also able to use deeper soil water [2]. Thus, their phenological development is less constrained by water limitation when compared with the shallow-rooted and early-flowering species. The increased soil and air temperature may have stimulated their phenological processes [4]. Warming caused no obvious effects on reproductive phenology of the deep-rooted, late-flowering species, such as Y. simulatrix. It might take several years for the cumulative effects of warming to appear [8]. However, a continuous drought occurred from 184 to 215 (DOY) in 2015. The timing of flower in late-flowering species occurs at this time. The
warming treatments T3 and T4, combined with a continuous drought, might have decreased deeper soil water, and most late-flowering species were unable to produce flowers and fruits in 2015, which might be a major fitness cost for these species in a warmer, drier alpine environment. Our results indicated that the potential for warm summers and failed monsoon rains would cause the loss of fruiting in the late-flowering species. Sherry et al. [10] found that warming dispersed the reproductive events of different species away from the peak of summer heat, resulting in both expanded and narrowed reproductive overlap period among species in a tallgrass prairie community [10]. In contrast, our targeted alpine meadow ecosystem was mainly constrained by soil moisture as set by the timing of the monsoon. Most plants advanced or delayed their reproductive events closer to the rainfall peak. Therefore, warming caused the convergence of the flowering events of early- and late-flowering species in our study, and increased the flowering period overlap among species. Changes in reproductive period overlap could alter the competitive relationships among species for such resources as water, nutrients and light during the reproduction process [16]. The potential for warmer- and drier-growing seasons with climate change could change the phenological patterns and species composition of these alpine systems. Data accessibility. The datasets supporting this article have been uploaded as part of the supplementary material.
Authors’ contributions. J.Z. carried out this research, collected field data, drafted the manuscript, carried out data analysis and participated in the design of the study; Y.Z. conceived of the study, designed the study, coordinated the study and helped draft the manuscript; W.W. collected field data; all authors gave final approval for publication; all authors agreed to be held accountable for the content therein. Competing interests. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical
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National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571195); West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; the Construction Service Programme for Cultivating Unique Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (TSYSJ05) and State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System.
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Hollister RD, Webber PJ, Bay C. 2005 Plant response to temperature in northern Alaska: implications for predicting vegetation change. Ecology 86, 1562 –1570. (doi:10.1890/04-0520) 7. Yu H, Luedeling E, Xu J. 2010 Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 22 151– 22 156. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1012490107) 8. Hoffmann AA, Camac JS, Williams RJ, Papst W, Jarrad FC, Wahren CH. 2010 Phenological changes in six Australian subalpine plants in response to experimental warming and year-to-year variation. J. Ecol. 98, 927–937. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010. 01667.x) 9. Kliber A, Eckert CG. 2004 Sequential decline in allocation among flowers within inflorescences: proximate mechanisms and adaptive significance. Ecology 85, 1675–1687. (doi:10.1890/03-0477) 10. Sherry RA, Zhou X, Gu S, Arnone JA, Schimel DS, Verburg PS, Wallace LL, Luo Y. 2007 Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 198–202. (doi:10. 1073/pnas.0605642104) 11. Jentsch A, Kreyling J, Boettcher-Treschkow J, Beierkuhnlein C. 2009 Beyond gradual warming:
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extreme weather events alter flower phenology of European grassland and heath species. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 837–849. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008. 01690.x) Oberbauer SF et al. 2013 Phenological response of tundra plants to background climate variation tested using the International Tundra Experiment. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120481. (doi:10.1098/ rstb.2012.0481) Xu LJ, Li DL, Hu ZY. 2010 Relationship between the snow cover day and monsoon index in Tibetan Plateau. Plateau Meteorol. 29, 1093–1101. Marion GM et al. 1997 Open-top designs for manipulating field temperature in high-latitude ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 3, 20 –32. (doi:10. 1111/j.1365-2486.1997.gcb136.x) De Valpine P, Harte J. 2001 Plant responses to experimental warming in a montane meadow. Ecology 82, 637–648. (doi:10.1890/00129658(2001)082[0637:PRTEWI]2.0.CO;2) Fageria NK, Breseghello F. 2004 Nutritional diagnostic in upland rice production in some municipalities of state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. J. Plant Nutr. 27, 947–958. (doi:10.1081/PLN120037529)
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Klein JA, Harte J, Zhao XQ. 2008 Decline in medicinal and forage species with warming is mediated by plant traits on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecosystems 11, 775– 789. (doi:10.1007/s10021-0089160-1) Dorji T, Totland O, Moe SR, Hopping KA, Pan JB, Klein JA. 2013 Plant functional traits mediate reproductive phenology and success in response to experimental warming and snow addition in Tibet. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 459–472. (doi:10. 1111/gcb.12059) Wang SP et al. 2014 Asymmetric sensitivity of first flowering date to warming and cooling in alpine plants. Ecology 95, 3387 –3398. (doi:10.1890/132235.1) Dunne JA, Harte J, Taylor KJ. 2003 Subalpine meadow flowering phenology responses to climate change: integrating experimental and gradient methods. Ecol. Monogr. 73, 69 –86. (doi:10.1890/ 0012-9615(2003)073[0069:SMFPRT]2.0.CO;2) Cleland EE, Chiariello NR, Loarie SR, Mooney HA, Field CB. 2006 Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 13 740 –13 744. (doi:10.1073/ pnas.0600815103)
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standards. This article does not contain any studies with animals performed by any of the authors. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study. Funding. This research is supported by the 973 Programme of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2013CB956302, 2010CB950603);
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Research Cite this article: zhu J, Zhang Y, Wang W. 2016 Interactions between warming and soil moisture increase overlap in reproductive phenology among species in an alpine meadow. Biol. Lett. 12: 20150749. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0749
Interactions between warming and soil moisture increase overlap in reproductive phenology among species in an alpine meadow Juntao zhu1, Yangjian Zhang1,2 and Wenfeng Wang3 1
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China 2 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China 3 Tibet Academy of Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Science, Institute of Agriculture Science, Lhasa 850032, People’s Republic of China Jz, 0000-0003-0379-3213
Received: 29 August 2015 Accepted: 20 June 2016
Subject Areas: ecology, plant science Keywords: alpine meadow, experimental warming, phenological overlap, phenological shifts, reproductive phenology
Climate warming strongly influences reproductive phenology of plants in alpine and Arctic ecosystems. Here, we focus on phenological shifts caused by experimental warming in a typical alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Under soil water stress caused by warming, most plants in the alpine meadow advanced or delayed their reproductive events to be aligned with the timing of peak rainfall. As a result, warming significantly increased the temporal overlap among reproductive stages of early- and late-flowering species. In addition, we found that some species, for example the late-flowering species, were unable to produce flowers and fruits under warming with failed monsoon rains. The potentially warmer- and drier-growing seasons under climate change may similarly shift the phenological patterns and change species composition of these alpine systems.
1. Introduction Authors for correspondence: Juntao zhu e-mail: [email protected] Yangjian Zhang e-mail: [email protected]
Electronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0749 or via http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org.
Reproductive phenology of plants is strongly influenced by temperature in alpine and Arctic ecosystems. Plant species may respond differently to temperature change, depending on their life-history traits [1–3]. For example, warming can have divergent consequences on plant phenology, including advanced [4,5], delayed [6,7] or unchanged [8] phenological events. Under warming, some species respond immediately, whereas other species might take several years for the cumulative effects of warming to emerge [8]. By shifting phenological stages, warming can significantly expand or shorten the overlapping periods of reproductive stages between successively blooming species [9], and disperse the reproductive events of different species away from the peak of summer heat [10]. Results have also been reported that there were no evident divergences in the advance or delay of the flowering date of some species [11]. The rapidly warming temperatures in high-latitude and alpine regions have the potential to alter the phenology of Arctic and alpine plants, and plants of different communities and growth forms differed for some phenological responses [12]. In alpine meadows on the central Tibetan Plateau, warming can result in soil water stress, particularly in the premonsoon growing season [2]. In this study, we put forward a conceptual model regarding responses of reproductive phenology to warming as showed in electronic supplementary material, figure S1. Under this hypothesis, warming would delay the reproductive phenology of
& 2016 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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Figure 1. The fitted curves of phenological stage changes for Kobresia pygmaea (early-flowering species, red line), Potentilla saundersiana (midflowering species, green line) and Stipa purpurea (late-flowering species, blue line) in the control plots. Parameters (K, a, b and m) describing the shape of the curve were obtained by fitting the observed phenological scores to the Richards equation for each species in each treatment. shallow-rooted, early-flowering species, advance the phenology of deep-rooted, late-flowering species and cause no effect on shallow-rooted, mid-flowering species, consequently expanding the reproductive overlap among species. With the help of a manipulative experiment, we aimed to test the above conceptual hypothesis by exploring phenological shifts caused by warming for an alpine meadow system on the Tibetan Plateau.
2. Material and methods The study area was located in a typical alpine meadow grassland at Naqu, northern Tibet, China (31838.5130 N, 9280.9210 E), approximately 4600 m in elevation. The long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation is –1.28C and 430 mm (1955–2012), respectively. The summer monsoon is the main source of precipitation in this region [2]. The onset of the summer monsoon over the past nearly 60 years has a mean date of 22 May (DOY: 142); however, there is considerable annual variation [13]. The growing season normally starts in mid-May and lasts until mid-September. The vegetation is dominated by Kobresia pygmaea, accompanied by Potentilla saundersiana, Potentilla cuneata and Stipa purpurea (figure 1). Passive warming was achieved using hexagonal open-top chambers (OTCs) based on the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) design [14]. The treatments included control, and four levels of warming (electronic supplementary material, figure S2). There were four replicates per treatment for a total of 20 plots. The OTCs were set up in October 2013. We measured air temperature and moisture at 10 cm above-ground using the Vaisala HMP155A sensor (Vaisala, Helsinki, Finland). Soil temperature and moisture at 5 cm below-ground were measured in the centre of the plots using Campbell CS655 sensors (Campbell Scientific, Logan, UT). Two air and soil sensors were installed for each treatment, and the data were averaged over the two sensors. We selected K. pygmaea, P. saundersiana, P. cuneata, S. purpurea, Festuca coelestis and Youngia simulatrix as the focal species, whose coverage and biomass account for more than 80% of the entire community. Twenty individuals of K. pygmaea and 10 individuals of other species were selected from each plot in May 2014 and marked with a colour-coded tag. Plant phenology was scored
3. Results The 2015 growing season (total rainfall ¼ 306 mm) was drier than in 2014 (total rainfall ¼ 460 mm; electronic supplementary material, figure S3). Specially, the total rainfall from 184 to 215 (DOY) in 2015 was 17.3 mm, and 115.4 mm in 2014. Warming increased air and soil temperature, and reduced soil moisture during both growing seasons (electronic supplementary material, figure S3). Warming delayed reproductive phenology (budding, flowering and fruiting) of K. pygmaea, advanced phenology of P. saundersiana, S. purpurea and F. coelestis (electronic supplementary material, figure S4 and table S4 –S9, p , 0.05), but caused no obvious effects on the phenological timing of P. cuneata and Y. simulatrix in both years ( p . 0.05). The overlapped flowering period between K. pygmaea and P. saundersiana increased by 9.4, 10.3, 3.8 days and 6.6, 8.9, 5.1 days in response to the warming treatments (T1, T2, T3) in 2014 and 2015 (electronic supplementary material, table S10 and S11, p , 0.05), respectively. The delayed flowering of K. pygmaea caused its flowering period to overlap with that of P. cuneata by 3.7, 4.3, 10.1, 7.1 days and 2.8, 4.6, 7.5, 9.5 days ( p , 0.05) under the four experimental warming treatments in 2014 and 2015, respectively (figure 2). Fruits were not produced by K. pygmaea in treatment T4 in 2014 and 2015 (see electronic supplementary material, figure S4). In 2015, flowers were not produced by F. coelestis and Y. simulatrix in treatment T3, nor by F. coelestis, Y. simulatrix and S. purpurea in treatment T4, and fruits were not produced by S. purpurea, F. coelestis and
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every 3–5 days for 2 consecutive years: 2014 and 2015. The phenological stage scoring was modified from Dunne et al. [4]. For K. pygmaea and forbs, P. saundersiana, P. cuneata and Y. simulatri, reproductive phenology was divided into six stages: F0, vegetative plants; F1, open buds; F2, open flowers; F3, initiated fruit; F4, expanding fruit and F5, dehisced fruit. For grasses, S. purpurea and F. coelestis, five reproductive stages were distinguished: G0, plants with flower stalks; G1, presence of spikelets; G2, exerted anthers and styles; G3, past the presence of anthers and styles and G4, disarticulating florets [10]. Based on their life-history traits, we classified K. pygmaea as a shallow-rooted (10 cm depth) and early-flowering species (DOY: 155 + 0.8, during the early summer monsoon), P. saundersiana and P. cuneata as shallowrooted (10 cm depth) and mid-flowering species (DOY: 168 + 0.4; DOY: 172 + 1.1; during the summer monsoon) and S. purpurea, F. coelestis and Y. simulatrix as deep-rooted (30 cm depth) and late-flowering species (DOY: 193 + 0.5; DOY: 197 + 1.2; DOY: 208 + 0.4, respectively; during the summer monsoon, based on data from 2014). We first applied the Richards equation with the contraction– expansion algorithm to fit phenological scores (Y ) of each species against the day for each plot by using MATLAB (MathWorks, Natick, MA; equation 1 in the electronic supplementary material). Best parameter estimates of K, a, b and m were obtained for each species in each plot. Second, based on equation 2 (see the electronic supplementary material), budding, flowering and fruiting timing were calculated as Y ¼ 1, Y ¼ 2 and Y ¼ 3 for all species, respectively. Flowering duration was calculated as the difference between stages 2 (Y ¼ 2) and 3 (Y ¼ 3). A two-way ANOVA with Turkey’s test was used to examine warming, year and their interactive effects on the timing of budding, flowering and fruiting for each species, and the overlap in flowering phase among species. The effects were considered to be significant if p , 0.05. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS v. 19.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL).
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Figure 2. Timing and duration of the flowering period for the six species under five treatments in 2014 (a) and 2015 (b). The dotted vertical line indicates the time of rainfall peak (DOY: 187 and 183, in 2014 and 2015). For Kobresia pygmaea (Kp), Potentilla saundersiana (Ps), Potentilla cuneata (Pc), Stipa purpurea (Sp), Festuca coelestis (Fc) and Youngia simulatrix (Ys) changes in timing or duration caused by the warming treatments (T1, T2, T3, T4, n ¼ 4 per treatment) are large enough to significantly affect the overlap between paired species. In 2015, flowers were not produced by F. coelestis and Y. simulatrix in treatment T3, nor by F. coelestis, Y. simulatrix and S. purpurea in treatment T4. Data are presented as duration + s.e. at the two ends of the flowering periods. Y. simulatrix in all treatments (see electronic supplementary material, figure S4).
4. Discussion Our experiment showed that warming changed the reproductive phenology of alpine plant species and that these responses were not uniform among species. In our study area, warming leads to soil water stress, particularly in the premonsoon growing season [2]. Plants with distinct life-history traits (early versus late flowering) and rooting depths possess different vulnerabilities to the decreased upper-soil moisture caused by increased temperature [2]. Delayed phenological development caused by water limitation under the warming treatment [15] may result in shallow-rooted and early-flowering species, such as K. pygmaea, being more sensitive to warming [1] during the wet growing season. In this study, warming advanced reproductive phenology of P. saundersiana, but not of P. cuneata. The shallow-rooted and midflowering species start flowering in the middle of June when the monsoon has started and can avoid strong water stress, which the early-flowering species has to face [2]. In this case, others have also reported advanced [4,5], delayed [6,7] or unchanged [2,8] phenological responses to warming in other species. The deeprooted and late-flowering species, such as S. purpurea and F. coelestis, start flowering during the monsoon season and are also able to use deeper soil water [2]. Thus, their phenological development is less constrained by water limitation when compared with the shallow-rooted and early-flowering species. The increased soil and air temperature may have stimulated their phenological processes [4]. Warming caused no obvious effects on reproductive phenology of the deep-rooted, late-flowering species, such as Y. simulatrix. It might take several years for the cumulative effects of warming to appear [8]. However, a continuous drought occurred from 184 to 215 (DOY) in 2015. The timing of flower in late-flowering species occurs at this time. The
warming treatments T3 and T4, combined with a continuous drought, might have decreased deeper soil water, and most late-flowering species were unable to produce flowers and fruits in 2015, which might be a major fitness cost for these species in a warmer, drier alpine environment. Our results indicated that the potential for warm summers and failed monsoon rains would cause the loss of fruiting in the late-flowering species. Sherry et al. [10] found that warming dispersed the reproductive events of different species away from the peak of summer heat, resulting in both expanded and narrowed reproductive overlap period among species in a tallgrass prairie community [10]. In contrast, our targeted alpine meadow ecosystem was mainly constrained by soil moisture as set by the timing of the monsoon. Most plants advanced or delayed their reproductive events closer to the rainfall peak. Therefore, warming caused the convergence of the flowering events of early- and late-flowering species in our study, and increased the flowering period overlap among species. Changes in reproductive period overlap could alter the competitive relationships among species for such resources as water, nutrients and light during the reproduction process [16]. The potential for warmer- and drier-growing seasons with climate change could change the phenological patterns and species composition of these alpine systems. Data accessibility. The datasets supporting this article have been uploaded as part of the supplementary material.
Authors’ contributions. J.Z. carried out this research, collected field data, drafted the manuscript, carried out data analysis and participated in the design of the study; Y.Z. conceived of the study, designed the study, coordinated the study and helped draft the manuscript; W.W. collected field data; all authors gave final approval for publication; all authors agreed to be held accountable for the content therein. Competing interests. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical
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National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571195); West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; the Construction Service Programme for Cultivating Unique Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (TSYSJ05) and State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System.
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standards. This article does not contain any studies with animals performed by any of the authors. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study. Funding. This research is supported by the 973 Programme of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2013CB956302, 2010CB950603);
