FUTURE NEEDS FOR DENTAL RESTORATIVE MATERIALS C.W.
DOUGLASS
Department of Dental Care Administration Harvard School of Dental Medicine 188 Longwood Avenue Boston, Massachusetts 02115 Adv Dent Res 6:4-6, September, 1992
Abstract—While the population of the United States increases from 250 to 310 million people, the number in older age groups will increase dramatically from 28 million to about 64 million. Tooth retention has improved remarkably in the 65-74 age groups, from 7.4 in 1962 to 17.9 in 1986. While younger age groups will require less treatment due to decline in dental caries, older age groups appear to require more treatment than did similar age cohorts in previous generations. Hence, the need for restorative procedures by the United States population will be on an upward trend for the next decade or two.
T
he first issue to be considered by this Technology Assessment Conference on the Effects and Side-effects of Dental Restorative Materials is whether population and disease trends are such that the issue is moot, because there will be little need for fillings and, thus, restorative materials in the future, due to the absence of tooth decay. This paper will present population and disease trends and need for treatment calculations showing that the need for restorative materials will not decrease but rather will increase substantially over the next 10 to 20 years. There are three basic demographic trends occurring today: (1) The population is getting larger, (2) the population is getting older, and (3) the population is becoming more culturally diverse. The effects of these changes on dentistry will be enormous. For example, in fewer than 30 years, there will be more than 310 million people living in the United States, and this estimate is probably low. Although there will be the same number of youngsters under the age of 20, about two million at each age level, they will represent a smaller proportion of the population because of the increases of older and senior adults. Fig. 1 shows that, while the proportion of young and middle-aged populations decreases, the percentage of the population over age 40 and especially over age 65 will increase dramatically. There are about 28 million people over age 65 today. This will increase to 39 million people over 65 in the year 2000 and 64 million in 2020. The next question, then, is "But will they have teeth?" Fig. 2 shows the trend in edentulism over a 25-year period. Edentulism in adults over age 65 has dropped to 34%. Most encouraging is that, in the 1985-86 National Institute of Dental Research (NIDR) survey of employed adults, only 16% of the 55-to-64 age group were edentulous. It would seem that by 1995-96, this cohort, then aged 65 to 74, will have an edentulous rate well below 30%. Clearly, there is a decline in edentulism that should be expected to continue.
Age
This manuscript is published as part of the proceedings of the NIH Technology Assessment Conference on Effects and Sideeffects of Dental Restorative Materials, August 26-28,1991, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, and did not undergo the customary journal peer-review process.
TABLE NUMBER OF FUNCTIONAL TEETH BY AGE GROUP AND YEAR OF SURVEY RTI NIDR NCHS NCHS 1960-62 1971-74 1981 1986
25-34
24.0
26.6
26.7
26.3
35-44
21.5
20.8
23.4
23.8
45-54
16.6
18.0
18.3
19.7
55-64
11.0
13.0
15.9
17.0
65-74
7.4
9.2
11.4
17.9
75-79
4.1
—
16.8
—
VOL. 6
FUTURE NEEDS FOR DENTAL
MATERIALS
Selected Age Cohorts as a Percent of U.S. Population 1940 and 2020
Percent of Edentulous Adults By 10 Year Age Groups 60
au
50
39
40
40
30
30 20
18 | 13
16
10 _
DOUGLASS
Department of Dental Care Administration Harvard School of Dental Medicine 188 Longwood Avenue Boston, Massachusetts 02115 Adv Dent Res 6:4-6, September, 1992
Abstract—While the population of the United States increases from 250 to 310 million people, the number in older age groups will increase dramatically from 28 million to about 64 million. Tooth retention has improved remarkably in the 65-74 age groups, from 7.4 in 1962 to 17.9 in 1986. While younger age groups will require less treatment due to decline in dental caries, older age groups appear to require more treatment than did similar age cohorts in previous generations. Hence, the need for restorative procedures by the United States population will be on an upward trend for the next decade or two.
T
he first issue to be considered by this Technology Assessment Conference on the Effects and Side-effects of Dental Restorative Materials is whether population and disease trends are such that the issue is moot, because there will be little need for fillings and, thus, restorative materials in the future, due to the absence of tooth decay. This paper will present population and disease trends and need for treatment calculations showing that the need for restorative materials will not decrease but rather will increase substantially over the next 10 to 20 years. There are three basic demographic trends occurring today: (1) The population is getting larger, (2) the population is getting older, and (3) the population is becoming more culturally diverse. The effects of these changes on dentistry will be enormous. For example, in fewer than 30 years, there will be more than 310 million people living in the United States, and this estimate is probably low. Although there will be the same number of youngsters under the age of 20, about two million at each age level, they will represent a smaller proportion of the population because of the increases of older and senior adults. Fig. 1 shows that, while the proportion of young and middle-aged populations decreases, the percentage of the population over age 40 and especially over age 65 will increase dramatically. There are about 28 million people over age 65 today. This will increase to 39 million people over 65 in the year 2000 and 64 million in 2020. The next question, then, is "But will they have teeth?" Fig. 2 shows the trend in edentulism over a 25-year period. Edentulism in adults over age 65 has dropped to 34%. Most encouraging is that, in the 1985-86 National Institute of Dental Research (NIDR) survey of employed adults, only 16% of the 55-to-64 age group were edentulous. It would seem that by 1995-96, this cohort, then aged 65 to 74, will have an edentulous rate well below 30%. Clearly, there is a decline in edentulism that should be expected to continue.
Age
This manuscript is published as part of the proceedings of the NIH Technology Assessment Conference on Effects and Sideeffects of Dental Restorative Materials, August 26-28,1991, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, and did not undergo the customary journal peer-review process.
TABLE NUMBER OF FUNCTIONAL TEETH BY AGE GROUP AND YEAR OF SURVEY RTI NIDR NCHS NCHS 1960-62 1971-74 1981 1986
25-34
24.0
26.6
26.7
26.3
35-44
21.5
20.8
23.4
23.8
45-54
16.6
18.0
18.3
19.7
55-64
11.0
13.0
15.9
17.0
65-74
7.4
9.2
11.4
17.9
75-79
4.1
—
16.8
—
VOL. 6
FUTURE NEEDS FOR DENTAL
MATERIALS
Selected Age Cohorts as a Percent of U.S. Population 1940 and 2020
Percent of Edentulous Adults By 10 Year Age Groups 60
au
50
39
40
40
30
30 20
18 | 13
16
10 _
