ELIMINATION AND RETENTION OF PUPILS.* By Edwaiid P.
Cummings,
Superintendent of Schools, Lansing, Mich. Tlie study of the facts and the causes of elimination of pupils in any single system of schools, or the comparison of elimination of pupils in different systems of schools, is a more complicated
process than might at first appear. A common method of reaching a conclusion in regard to the number of pupils retained in any set of schools is to compare the enrolments in the various grades
Take the number of pupils in the first grade then determine what percentage of this number is base;
from first to last. as
a
found in the
second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, and twelfth grades respectively. The result will be the true percentage retained by that particular school. This has often been the rule
by which educational statisticians proceeded. At first sight it seems to be a fair one. A moment's thought, however, shows the entire inadequacy and unreliability of such a course. Could we imagine a locality where the school population and enrolment were absolutely unchangeable have
from year to year, where the same number of children started each year in the first grade and where these conditions continued for a minimum period of twelve years, one year for each grade, with
no
moving
to
or
from the
district, possibly
true conclusions
might be reached. In no other case can this be so. A district with a rapidly increasing school population, where the lower grade enrolment naturally first feels this increase, suffers greatly
in conclusions drawn from such a method of deduction. A disa district where there is even a decrease in
trict which is dead, population, makes a
splendid showing. With a constantly de(its grade enrolment), the percentage of pupils creasing retained in each grade apparently increases rapidly. It is therefore apparent that when such a rule is followed, a most desirable condition is to establish, if possible, a small enrolment in the first grade. A vigorous growing community has a large first grade. A community where the first grade is composed of primary and of so-called sub-primary has a first grade of nearly twice the size base
first
?Included also in the last annual report of the Superintendent of Schools, Lansing, Mich
ELIMINATION AND RETENTION OF PUPILS.
21
gives but one year to this work. A community with kindergarten and first primary has the same handicap in statistics compiled by the above rule, if kindergarten enrolment and In a first grade enrolment are taken together for the base. comparison of different school systems the resulting confusion is often due to lack of uniformity both in statistical methods of various systems and in rules for comparing such statistics. Edward L. Tliorndyke, professor of educational psychology at Columbia University, reaches conclusions in his recent study of elimination of pupils from school which are totally at variance with those reached by Leonard P. Ayres, secretary of the backward children investigation on the Russell Sage Foundation. One of the important questions now being studied by the United States
of
one
that
Commissioner of Education is
a
uniform
of statistics for the questions which arise
system
of facts regarding the important in the extensive and intensive study of American school problems. Mr. Ayres recently addressed the superintendents of Michigan,
recording
assembled in annual meeting here in
Lansing, upon this question unable to be present at that part of the but I heard the substance of the greater portion of his
of elimination.
session,
I
was
Lansing address at the national meeting of superintendents at Indianapolis. In the Lansing address, a comparison of several Michigan cities was made and some conclusions drawn. In a recent letter from Mr. Ayres I have this paragraph: "Turning now to Lansing we find a peculiar situation. According to the A is first the very good proporfigures grade inexplicably large. tion of the beginners is carried through to the eighth grade and a very good showing is made in the high school. When I spoke in your city I explained that the Lansing diagram was quite largely
made up on guess work because of the absence of real data [that I possessed] and so was not to be taken too seriously. Without I judge that the very large partly because many children are doing the work of the first grade as a preparatory grade during Another one year and as a real first grade the following year. probable explanation is that Lansing is growing very rapidly and the population is largely made up of young mechanics who
knowing first
much about local
grade
conditions,
is to be accounted for
have young children in their families. has
Thus Lansing, at present, of young children in the
abnormally large percentage population." Mr. Ayres adds: "In the average city of this country less than half of all the children reach the eighth grade and not over an
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CLINIC.
22
completes the high school course. Thus it will be Lansing showing is very superior to that made by the average city." "While we all like to hear such complimentary expressions, let us look at this important first grade enrolment of a few representative cities of the state. I can say that the figures upon which my conclusions and the following tables are based have been secured within the past two months directly from the superintendents of the various cities mentioned. They can therefore be relied upon Mr. Ayres spoke of Lansing's first grade as as authoritative. unusually large. His deductions were generally made upon these figures as a base. The following is the population of eight Michigan cities, beginning with Lansing, and their respective first grade enrolments.
one
child in
ten
that the
seen
Population.*
Number in first
grade.
35,000 7G4 (exclusive of kindergartens) Lansing, Flint, 35,000 Number not given. Jackson, 35,000 540 Traverse City, 12,000 192 E. S.,... 30,000 482 Saginaw, Kalamazoo, 40,000 GOO 45,000 700 Bay City, Grand Rapids,.... 100,000 17G5 ....
From this it appears that there are more first grade pupils in schools than in any of the seven other schools mentioned above, except Grand Rapids. The reasons, as far as ascertainable, I believe to have been truly surmised by Mr. Ayres as the
Lansing
in his letter.
I have been interested in a further comparconditions in the above eight schools, the unit of comparison, the base, being not the enrolment in the first grade, nor in any other single grade, but the "average number belonging" for the entire school. A comparison of the number of pupils in the public schools with the total population of legal school age in the community, five to twenty years, shows the following:
quoted ison
of
Per Flint Traverse
75
City
Per cent
cent
74
Lansing
GO
Kalamazoo
GO
Jackson
Saginaw,
Grand
Rapids Bay City
?This table was compiled before the results of the 1910 of population are not far wrong.
mates
59
E. S....
census were
50 49 38
reported, but the esti-
ELIMINATION AND RETENTION OF PUPILS.
23
following percentages represent tlie relative numbers graduated from the eighth grade this year as compared "average number belonging" for the entire school:
The
that have with
Per cent
Per cent Kalamazoo
7.6
Jackson
Saginaw Bay City Lansing
6.0
Grand
5.7
Flint
These
4.6
Kapids....
3.4 3.1
5.0
are not
percentages
of those who entered school and
completed the eighth grade. Such percentages would be much higher. These percentages mean that of the "average number belonging" in the entire primary system, grammar and high school, such as represented by the above figures were in the eighth grade completing class. The following statistics are especially significant as they show the proportion of the schools' "average number belonging" who are in the first high school grade. Here again warning must be taken not to think of these percentages as representing merely the proportion of pupils who reach the high school for it must be remembered that up and beyond these are all the pupils of the second, third, and fourth high school grades. Causes Summary by Schools
Sickness
Number
Removal
left
from
and
city.
Death.
To
Work.
of
Leaving
Lack of Interes t.
Failure.
Other Causes.
Reasons Not Known.
36
29
5
51
43
5
71
54
7
28
24
2
23
19
2
69
50
5
14
71
50
12
1
44
37
3
32
30
2
26
18
3
22
14
4
2
28
21
4
3
Walnut
40
29
5
1
2
High School Kindergarten
98
17
18
22
28
54
33
13
693
468
01
Bingham Central Cedar Cherry East Park Kalamazoo Larch Logan Mich. Ave. Moores Park South St.. Townsend
....
.
..
..
..
Total
4 1
3 50
19
57
Help Needed in
Family.
Cummings,
Superintendent of Schools, Lansing, Mich. Tlie study of the facts and the causes of elimination of pupils in any single system of schools, or the comparison of elimination of pupils in different systems of schools, is a more complicated
process than might at first appear. A common method of reaching a conclusion in regard to the number of pupils retained in any set of schools is to compare the enrolments in the various grades
Take the number of pupils in the first grade then determine what percentage of this number is base;
from first to last. as
a
found in the
second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, and twelfth grades respectively. The result will be the true percentage retained by that particular school. This has often been the rule
by which educational statisticians proceeded. At first sight it seems to be a fair one. A moment's thought, however, shows the entire inadequacy and unreliability of such a course. Could we imagine a locality where the school population and enrolment were absolutely unchangeable have
from year to year, where the same number of children started each year in the first grade and where these conditions continued for a minimum period of twelve years, one year for each grade, with
no
moving
to
or
from the
district, possibly
true conclusions
might be reached. In no other case can this be so. A district with a rapidly increasing school population, where the lower grade enrolment naturally first feels this increase, suffers greatly
in conclusions drawn from such a method of deduction. A disa district where there is even a decrease in
trict which is dead, population, makes a
splendid showing. With a constantly de(its grade enrolment), the percentage of pupils creasing retained in each grade apparently increases rapidly. It is therefore apparent that when such a rule is followed, a most desirable condition is to establish, if possible, a small enrolment in the first grade. A vigorous growing community has a large first grade. A community where the first grade is composed of primary and of so-called sub-primary has a first grade of nearly twice the size base
first
?Included also in the last annual report of the Superintendent of Schools, Lansing, Mich
ELIMINATION AND RETENTION OF PUPILS.
21
gives but one year to this work. A community with kindergarten and first primary has the same handicap in statistics compiled by the above rule, if kindergarten enrolment and In a first grade enrolment are taken together for the base. comparison of different school systems the resulting confusion is often due to lack of uniformity both in statistical methods of various systems and in rules for comparing such statistics. Edward L. Tliorndyke, professor of educational psychology at Columbia University, reaches conclusions in his recent study of elimination of pupils from school which are totally at variance with those reached by Leonard P. Ayres, secretary of the backward children investigation on the Russell Sage Foundation. One of the important questions now being studied by the United States
of
one
that
Commissioner of Education is
a
uniform
of statistics for the questions which arise
system
of facts regarding the important in the extensive and intensive study of American school problems. Mr. Ayres recently addressed the superintendents of Michigan,
recording
assembled in annual meeting here in
Lansing, upon this question unable to be present at that part of the but I heard the substance of the greater portion of his
of elimination.
session,
I
was
Lansing address at the national meeting of superintendents at Indianapolis. In the Lansing address, a comparison of several Michigan cities was made and some conclusions drawn. In a recent letter from Mr. Ayres I have this paragraph: "Turning now to Lansing we find a peculiar situation. According to the A is first the very good proporfigures grade inexplicably large. tion of the beginners is carried through to the eighth grade and a very good showing is made in the high school. When I spoke in your city I explained that the Lansing diagram was quite largely
made up on guess work because of the absence of real data [that I possessed] and so was not to be taken too seriously. Without I judge that the very large partly because many children are doing the work of the first grade as a preparatory grade during Another one year and as a real first grade the following year. probable explanation is that Lansing is growing very rapidly and the population is largely made up of young mechanics who
knowing first
much about local
grade
conditions,
is to be accounted for
have young children in their families. has
Thus Lansing, at present, of young children in the
abnormally large percentage population." Mr. Ayres adds: "In the average city of this country less than half of all the children reach the eighth grade and not over an
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CLINIC.
22
completes the high school course. Thus it will be Lansing showing is very superior to that made by the average city." "While we all like to hear such complimentary expressions, let us look at this important first grade enrolment of a few representative cities of the state. I can say that the figures upon which my conclusions and the following tables are based have been secured within the past two months directly from the superintendents of the various cities mentioned. They can therefore be relied upon Mr. Ayres spoke of Lansing's first grade as as authoritative. unusually large. His deductions were generally made upon these figures as a base. The following is the population of eight Michigan cities, beginning with Lansing, and their respective first grade enrolments.
one
child in
ten
that the
seen
Population.*
Number in first
grade.
35,000 7G4 (exclusive of kindergartens) Lansing, Flint, 35,000 Number not given. Jackson, 35,000 540 Traverse City, 12,000 192 E. S.,... 30,000 482 Saginaw, Kalamazoo, 40,000 GOO 45,000 700 Bay City, Grand Rapids,.... 100,000 17G5 ....
From this it appears that there are more first grade pupils in schools than in any of the seven other schools mentioned above, except Grand Rapids. The reasons, as far as ascertainable, I believe to have been truly surmised by Mr. Ayres as the
Lansing
in his letter.
I have been interested in a further comparconditions in the above eight schools, the unit of comparison, the base, being not the enrolment in the first grade, nor in any other single grade, but the "average number belonging" for the entire school. A comparison of the number of pupils in the public schools with the total population of legal school age in the community, five to twenty years, shows the following:
quoted ison
of
Per Flint Traverse
75
City
Per cent
cent
74
Lansing
GO
Kalamazoo
GO
Jackson
Saginaw,
Grand
Rapids Bay City
?This table was compiled before the results of the 1910 of population are not far wrong.
mates
59
E. S....
census were
50 49 38
reported, but the esti-
ELIMINATION AND RETENTION OF PUPILS.
23
following percentages represent tlie relative numbers graduated from the eighth grade this year as compared "average number belonging" for the entire school:
The
that have with
Per cent
Per cent Kalamazoo
7.6
Jackson
Saginaw Bay City Lansing
6.0
Grand
5.7
Flint
These
4.6
Kapids....
3.4 3.1
5.0
are not
percentages
of those who entered school and
completed the eighth grade. Such percentages would be much higher. These percentages mean that of the "average number belonging" in the entire primary system, grammar and high school, such as represented by the above figures were in the eighth grade completing class. The following statistics are especially significant as they show the proportion of the schools' "average number belonging" who are in the first high school grade. Here again warning must be taken not to think of these percentages as representing merely the proportion of pupils who reach the high school for it must be remembered that up and beyond these are all the pupils of the second, third, and fourth high school grades. Causes Summary by Schools
Sickness
Number
Removal
left
from
and
city.
Death.
To
Work.
of
Leaving
Lack of Interes t.
Failure.
Other Causes.
Reasons Not Known.
36
29
5
51
43
5
71
54
7
28
24
2
23
19
2
69
50
5
14
71
50
12
1
44
37
3
32
30
2
26
18
3
22
14
4
2
28
21
4
3
Walnut
40
29
5
1
2
High School Kindergarten
98
17
18
22
28
54
33
13
693
468
01
Bingham Central Cedar Cherry East Park Kalamazoo Larch Logan Mich. Ave. Moores Park South St.. Townsend
....
.
..
..
..
Total
4 1
3 50
19
57
Help Needed in
Family.
